Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost

Zamzami, P.; Poursaeed, A.; Hoseini, S. J. F.

doi:10.1590/1519-6984.270693

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Original Article • Braz. J. Biol. 84 • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1519-6984.270693 copy

Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost¹ 1 Paria Zamzami and Seyed Jamal Farajollah Hoseini: Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Alireza Poursaeed: Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran.

Modelo de estabilização dos meios de subsistência dos pomares nas margens do Lago Urmia contra as geadas do final da primavera

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Despite the adverse effects of late spring frost on the ecological and economic impact on agriculture, the management of these events are poorly investigated. Therefore, the grounded theory was used for extracting the livelihood stabilization model of orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frosts. The statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included 22 experts in the field of horticulture. In the quantitative study, they included all orchardists in the villages along with Lake Urmia, comprising 341 people, of which 236 were randomly selected. By carefully examining and linking the concepts and subcategories, the most important subcategories that were included six subcategories. The results of all calculated goodness-of-fit indexes (chi-square [P > 0.01], RMSEA = 0.000, NFI = 0.95, CFI = 0.91, and GFI = 0.92) showed the model provided an excellent fit for the data. Standardized regression coefficients showed that interfering factors had the greatest impact on the livelihood of orchardists against late spring frosts (β = 0.47). Also, the background factors (β = 0.43) and causal factors (β = 0.39) were found to affect the livelihood of the orchardists in encountering late spring frost. The results of multiple square correlations of dependent variables also indicated that about 41% of the livelihood variance of small-scale orchardists was explained by the predictor variables (i.e. causal conditions, background factors and interfering factors). The findings of this study can assist policymakers, planners and relevant managers while paying more attention to orchardists in the region, so as to support decisions in order to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords:
sustainable livelihoods; late spring frost; orchardists; lake Urmia; grounded theory; structural equation modeling

Broad classes	Subclasses	No.
Lack of infrastructure development	Lack of attention to communication infrastructure	1
Social and demographic challenges	Increase in the age of the orchardist population	2
	Belief in determinism among orchardists	3
	Incidence of social shocks	4
Inability of orchardists to adapt to environmental changes and transformations	Unstable weather conditions and late frosts in recent years	5
	Disability of orchardists to adapt to climate change	6
	Instability of climatic conditions	7
Economic Challenges	Lack of liquidity	8
Lack of participation of human resources in decisions	Lack of participation of young people in planning and implementation of programs	9
Lack of participation of human resources in decisions	Lack of participation of the target community in the design and implementation of programs	10
Management Challenges	Failure to use management models that are appropriate for the region	11
	Lack of comprehensive and integrated programs and policies	12
	Lack of development of plans and programs appropriate to the characteristics of the region (especially with respect to recent climate change)	13
	Failure to use technology appropriate for the region	14
Equipment and infrastructure factors	Availability of required equipment and devices	15
	Development of plans to deal with late spring frost	16
	Development of insurance infrastructure	17
Economic factors	Adequate budget allocation and its proportionality to costs	18
Expert human resources	Existence of scientific research centers for training labor and encouraging research	19
	Existence of efficient and expert managers	20
	Capacity of specialized and young manpower	21
	Illiteracy, insufficient knowledge of local orchardists in their management of orchards when encountering late spring frost	22
Lack of comprehensive and integrated policy-making	Insufficient attention by executive bodies and managers to the stabilization of orchardists’ livelihoods	23
Lack of comprehensive and integrated policy-making	Lack of proper policy among banks for timely allocation of credits to implement the development of projects	24
Lack of coordination in the implementation of affairs and planning	Differences in tastes and attitudes of responsible organizations, including the national agricultural organization and the national organization for environmental preservation in the implementation of communicative policies	25
	Coherence and coordination in various fields of design, planning, organization and implementation of livelihood-stabilization activities for orchardists along the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost	26
cultural factors	Attention to cultures and customs of people in the region	27
Using the capacities of the region	Attention to the identity of orchardists in the region and predicting the necessary measures to deal with the late spring frost	28
Using the capacities of the region	Lack of desire of educated youth to work with their fathers in managing the late spring frost	29
Attention to the plans of resistance against economic hardship	Preparing a roadmap for a resilient economy with an emphasis on domestic production to reduce damages caused by late spring frosts	30
	Development of complementary agricultural conversion industries with emphasis on the management of late spring frost	31
Land fragmentation and challenges on the laws of inheritance	Dividing gardens into smaller areas due to inheritance can lead to land fragmentation and problems in managing horticultural activities, increasing the damages caused by late spring frost	32
Production Challenges	Reduction of water quality in the region	33
	Instability of the climate in the region and disregard for climatic recommendations by orchardists in the region	34
	Insufficient skills of orchardists to manage late spring frosts	35
Market management and its challenges	Sudden increase in prices	36
	Failure to pay for the price of garden products on time at the time of purchase	37
	Failure to set guaranteed prices for horticultural goods and products	38
Educational and promotional factors	Lack of comprehensive implementation of extension-educational programs, appropriate for the needs of orchardists to manage late spring frosts	39
Educational and research strategies	Informing and confidence-building	40
	Using managers and experts in the field of horticulture	41
	Support for applied research	42
	Improving scientific knowledge, attitude and skills of orchardists in the region to manage late spring frosts	43
	Promoting new methods of production	44
	Training for methods of preservation	45
Operational and executive strategies	Use of sprayers in gardens	46
	Use of plastic coatings	47
	management of spraying solutions	48
	Observance of meteorological recommendations by orchardists in the region to carry out gardening activities	49
	Diversity of fruit trees in the garden	50
	Tree resistance to cold	51
	watershed management	52
	Irrigation management	53
	Breeding late flowering cultivars	54
Management strategies	participation by people in managing threats of frost	55
	Using young people and graduates	56
	Use of local capacities	57
	Preparation of comprehensive plan for agricultural and horticultural risk management in the country’s management and planning	58
Economic and livelihood strategies	Diversification of horticultural, agricultural and livestock activities	59
	Reducing poverty by providing facilities	60
	monitoring livelihoods at times of damage by late spring frost	61
	Existence of local credit funds in order to improve the resilience of garden households in conditions of damage caused by late spring frost	62
Sustainable market management	Access to the sales market	63
	Development of local markets	64
	Support for exports	65
	Branding and product brand development	66
Economic sustainability	Sustainability and relative stability of income	67
	Increase in the financial power and purchasing power of orchardists	68
	Ability to save parts of one’s income	69
	Job stability of orchardists	70
Livelihood sustainability	Domestic business development	71
	Improvements in livelihood	72
	Empowering orchardists	73
	More effective management of environmental hazards by local orchardists	74
Establishment of social justice	Prevention of emigration from agricultural areas	75
	Increase in the social welfare of orchardists in the region	76
	Strengthening local institutions (councils, villages, micro-credit funds)	77
	Increase in job satisfaction of orchardists	78
	Paying attention to the needs of orchardists at the local, national and international levels	79
Sustainable productivity	Development of conversion industries	80
	Efficient garden management	81
	Promote orchardists’ resilience and reduce the vulnerability of orchardists in the region	82
	Sustainable management of natural resources	83

RMR	GFI	CFI	NFI	P-close	RMSEA	X2/ df	P-value	Chi-square	Index
0.016	0.91	0.92	0.95	0.21	0.0000	1.13	0.11	19.32	value
Smaller than 0.08	Close to 0.95	Close to 0.95	Close to 0.95	Bigger than 0.05	Smaller than 0.05	Smaller than 2	Bigger than 0.05	----	coefficient

Hypotheses			Estimated parameter	Standard Error	Critical ratio (C.R.)	Level of significance (P)
Causal conditions	→	Stabilizing the livelihood of small-scale orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost	0.39	0.045	6.15	***
Background factors	→		0.43	0.038	11.35	***
Interfering factors	→		0.41	0.043	11.27	***
Background factors	→	Strategies for stabilizing the livelihood of small-scale orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost	0.35	0.040	10.36	***
Interfering factors	→		0.27	0.038	10.27	***
Livelihood strategies of small-scale orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost	→	Consequences of stabilizing the livelihood of small-scale orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost	0.57	0.035	10.54	***

Variable	Test
Livelihoods of small-scale orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against the late spring cold	0.41
Livelihood strategies of small-scale orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost	0.53

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[1] *e-mail: ar.poursaeed@gmail.com