Inland expansion of COVID-19 in Western Bahia: epidemiological profile and spatial analysis of deaths and confirmed cases

Abstract

This article aims to describe the epidemiological profile and the spatial distribution of deaths and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the health macroregion of Western Bahia. An ecological study on the inland expansion of SARS-CoV-2 was performed from March 21, 2020 to March 31, 2021 considering incidence and mortality rate, case fatality rate, case density and moving average of cases and deaths. 37,036 cases and 536 confirmed deaths were registered. Of all cases, 94.5% recovered and 4.0% remained active. The incidence rate was 3884.1/100,000 inhabitants, the mortality rate 56.2/100,000 inhabitants and the fatality rate was 1.4% A predominance of very high and high intensity of the occurrence of COVID-19 in the macroregion was identified and moving average revealed an increasing trend. Findings show a high risk of infection and death in the macroregion, in addition to a growing trend in accumulated cases, confirming the inland expansion of the disease.

Key words:
Coronavirus; Spatial Analysis; Epidemiology; Brazil