Avaliando o impacto da Covid-19 sobre o apoio à democracia no Brasil: um estudo de painel

Silva, Diego R. de Moraes; Turner, Jacob R.

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Brasil

Revista de Sociologia e Política

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Brasil

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Sumário

Original Article • Rev. Sociol. Polit. 31 • 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1678-98732331e020 copiar

Avaliando o impacto da Covid-19 sobre o apoio à democracia no Brasil: um estudo de painel

Autoria SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

RESUMO

Introdução:

Embora uma mudança considerável de valores políticos e sociais normalmente só aconteça através de substituição geracional, eventos perturbadores importantes podem, por vezes, desencadear mudanças rápidas de valores. Este artigo investiga se a pandemia de Covid-19 alterou o apoio à democracia entre os cidadãos brasileiros.

Materiais e métodos:

Esta investigação utiliza um estudo de painel longitudinal online de três ondas (N = 1.301) que mede as atitudes dos cidadãos brasileiros em relação à democracia em três momentos distintos durante a pandemia de Covid-19. O instrumento de pesquisa mediu diversas dimensões de atitudes em relação à democracia e perguntou sobre a experiência da Covid-19 do(a) entrevistado(a) e do seu círculo próximo. Utilizando uma combinação de correspondência de pontuação de propensão e um design de diferença em diferenças, estimamos um efeito causal robusto da experiência do coronavírus no apoio “difuso” e “específico” à democracia.

Resultados:

Descobrimos que a exposição ao vírus teve pouco efeito nas nossas medidas de apoio à democracia, mas houve algumas evidências de que a exposição grave teve um impacto negativo numa medida, o apoio difuso.

Discussão:

Os nossos resultados fornecem mais provas da persistência de crenças e valores ideológicos duradouros. Especificamente, a pandemia da Covid-19, um dos acontecimentos globais mais perturbadores da memória recente, teve um impacto apenas fraco na cultura democrática. Esses resultados sugerem que, embora as preocupações sobre o impacto da pandemia nas atitudes democráticas possam ser exageradas, líderes sociais e políticos ainda devem agir de forma consciente, reafirmando e apoiando a continuidade da governança democrática no período de recuperação pós-pandemia.

Palavras-chave
apoio à; democracia; cultura política; avaliação de impacto; Covid-19; survey em painel

Type	Variable	Description
Outcome	Specific support	Component extracted from a PCA with high factor loadings for two categorical variables on the individual's trust in the government and in the country's institutions as a whole.
	Diffuse support	Component extracted from a PCA with high factor loadings for two categorical variables on the individual's agreement that democracy is the best form of government and his/her disagreement with the idea that the government can override the laws, Congress, and institutions in difficult situations
Treatment	Testing positive	Whether the individual tested positively for Covid-19 (0 - No; 1 - Yes)
	Having severe symptoms	Whether the individual had severe symptoms of Covid-19 (0 - No; 1 - Yes)
	Knowing someone close who had severe symptoms	Whether the individual knows someone close to him/her who had severe symptoms of Covid-19 (0 - No; 1 - Yes)
Time	Wave	Whether the observation is from the pre-treatment period (Wave = 0 - May/June 2020) or post-treatment period (Wave = 1 - September/October 2021)
Covariates	Sex (male)	Whether the individual is female or male (0 - Female; 1 - Male)
	Age	Current age of the individual in years
	Education	Which is the highest education level attained by the individual (0 - No formal education; 1 - Incomplete primary school; 2 - Complete primary school; 3 - Incomplete secondary school; 4 - Complete secondary school; 5 - Incomplete higher education; 6 - Complete higher education; 7 - Graduate degree or more)
	Income	Which is the average nominal income bracket within the individual's household (0 - Up to 1 minimum wage; 1 - From 1 to 2 minimum wages; 2 - From 2 to 5 minimum wages; 3 - From 5 to 10 minimum wages; 4 - from 10 to 20 minimum wages; 5 - More than 20 minimum wages)
	Marital status (married)	Whether the individual is currently married (0 - No; 1 - Yes)
	Metropolitan city	Whether the individual lives in a large city/suburb of a large city (0 - No; 1 - Yes)
	Religiosity (religious)	Whether the individual considers himself/herself a religious person (0 - No; 1 - Yes)
	Openness to experience	Aggregation of two 5-point scales asking to which extent an individual would agree that he/she is someone who has an active imagination and disagree that he/she is someone who has few artistic interests
	Conscientiousness	Additive aggregation of two 5-point scales asking to which extent an individual would agree that he/she is someone who does a thorough job and disagree that he/she is someone who tends to be lazy
	Extraversion	Additive aggregation of two 5-point scales asking to which extent an individual would agree that he/she is someone who is outgoing and sociable and disagree that he/she is someone who is reserved
	Agreeableness	Additive aggregation of two 5-point scales asking to which extent an individual would agree that he/she is someone who is generally trusting and disagree that he/she is someone who tends to find fault with others
	Neuroticism	Additive aggregation of two 5-point scales asking to which extent an individual would agree that he/she is someone who gets nervous easily and disagree that he/she is someone who is relaxed and handles stress well
	Empathy Index	Additive aggregation of four 5-point scales asking to which extent an individual considers himself/herself as someone with the following feelings towards others: I often have tender, concerned feelings for people less fortunate than me. When I see people being taken advantage of, I feel kind of protective towards them. I am often quite touched by things that I see happen. I would describe myself as a pretty soft-hearted person.
	State dummies	State dummies for each one of the 26 Brazilian states plus the Federal District wherein the individual might live.

N° of observations	PCs	Eigenvalue	Difference	Proportion	Cumulative
2,602	PC1	1.441	0.349	36.02%	36.02%
N° of components	PC2	1.092	0.213	27.30%	63.33%
4	PC3	0.879	0.291	21.98%	85.31%
Rho	PC4	0.588	-	14.69%	100%
1
Variables	PC1		PC2	PC3	PC4
Preference for democracy	0.130		0.726	-0.672	0.059
Rejection of democracy relativization	-0.430		0.565	0.565	0.420
Trust in government	0.689		-0.096	0.092	0.712
Trust in institutions	0.568		0.379	0.470	-0.559

Treatment variable	Testing positive for Covid-19		Having experienced severe symptoms of Covid-19		Knowing someone close who had severe symptoms of Covid-19
Outcome variable	Specific Support	Diffuse Support	Specific Support	Diffuse Support	Specific Support	Diffuse Support
Diff-in-diff	0.022	-0.025	0.188	-0.236*	0.001	0.004
	(0.082)	(0.074)	(0.145)	(0.141)	(0.083)	(0.068)
Mean control t(0)	-0.079	-0.082	-0.086	-0.130	-0.020	-0.110
Mean treated t(0)	-0.001	-0.002	-0.144	0.016	-0.038	0.006
Diff t(0)	0.078	0.080	-0.058	0.146	-0.019	0.116^* *p < 0.01, p < 0.05, *p < 0.1
	(0.091)	(0.068)	(0.141)	(0.140)	(0.072)	(0.068)
Mean control t(1)	0.041	0.024	0.013	-0.003	0.074	0.003
Mean treated t(1)	0.141	0.079	0.144	-0.094	0.056	0.123
Diff t(1)	0.100	0.055	0.131	-0.091	-0.018	0.120^* *p < 0.01, p < 0.05, *p < 0.1
	(0.082)	(0.077)	(0.140)	(0.133)	(0.072)	(0.071)
Observations (total)	2,514	2,514	2,192	2,192	2,254	2,254
Control (pre and post)	1,034	1,034	1,031	1,031	695	695
Treated (pre and post)	223	223	65	65	432	432
R-squared	0.004	0.003	0.010	0.003	0.002	0.010
Robust standard errors in parentheses (clustered at city level).

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[1] Diego R. de Moraes Silva (moraessilva.diego@gmail.com) holds a PhD in Science and Technology Policy from UNICAMP and serves as director of the Department of Knowledge for Innovation, Science, and Technology at SICT/RS.