A Nowcasting System for Hydrometeorological Hazard Assessment of Landslides and Flooding - Part 1: Conceptual Formulation

Karam, Hugo Abi

doi:10.11137/1982-3908_2024_47_62978

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METEOROLOGY • Anu. Inst. Geociênc. 47 • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2024_47_62978 linkcopy

A Nowcasting System for Hydrometeorological Hazard Assessment of Landslides and Flooding - Part 1: Conceptual Formulation

Um Sistema de Nowcasting para Avaliação de Riscos Hidrometeorológicos de Deslizamentos e Inundações - Parte 1: Formulação Conceitual

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

This study presents a novel very short-term hydro-meteorological forecasting system integrating precipitation data from Hydroestimator/NOAA. The system employs a variational version of the TopModel hydrological model alongside landslide and flood hazard models. Operating in continuous 15-minute cycles, it produces scalar and probabilistic two-dimensional hazard fields to support decision-making during extreme events across the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, at a spatial resolution of 4 km. The evaluation of this system considers performance indicators based on contingency tables. Emphasizing a balanced approach between computational efficiency and product utility, this study aims to provide a robust analysis of the system's predictive capabilities in addressing hydro-meteorological challenges.

Keywords:
Nowcasting; Hydroestimator/NOAA; Hydrometeorological hazards

Par.	Meaning	Values (*)	Usual Range	Unit	Ref.
r_scale	Landslide hazard critical rainfall	40	30 - 60	(mm h^-1)	(6)
σ_m	Rainfall margin of the discriminant curve	4	10 - 60	(mm h^-1)	(6), (*)
z_w	Mean water table depth	3	0.25 - 25	(m)	(2)
ρ_sd	Mean dry soil density	1600	900 - 2500	(kg m^-3)	(3)
tan φ	Mean friction coefficient	1	0.01 - ∞	(-)	(5)
η	Mean soil porosity	0.10	0.01 - 0.45	(-)	(3)

Variables	Meaning	Usual Range	Unit
Diagnostic variables (available each of last 24 hours):
𝐶 𝑆	Soil cohesion (2D)	(0; 0.7[	10⁵ Pa
𝜏 𝑆	Tangential tensor component (2D) [module]	(0; 2.5[	10⁵ Pa
𝜎 𝑆	Compression tensor component (2D) [module]	(0; 1.4[	10⁵ Pa
𝐹 𝑅	Resistance to be exceeded to rupture (2D) [module]	(0; 2.5[	10¹² N
𝐷	Saturation deficit (upper soil layer) (2D)	]-2; 0)	(dimensionless)
𝛼 𝑔	Wetness (upper soil layer) (2D)	(0; 2[	(dimensionless)
F	Safety factor (2D)	(0; 2[	(dimensionless)
𝛥𝑟	Critical rainfall up to soil layer rupture (2D)	(0; 60[	(mm h^-1)
𝛥𝐷	Saturation deficit variation up to rupture (2D)	]-2; +2)	(dimensionless)
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏 𝐿	Landslide hazard conditional Probability (2D)	(0; 100)	(%)
Prognostic stream variables (available each of next 24 hours):
𝑄 𝑖	River flow(rated points along streams) [module] (1D)	(0; 50000[	(m3 s-1)
𝑞 𝑖	River velocity (points along streams) [module] (1D)	(0.1; 1.3[	(m3 m^-2 s^-1)
ℎ 𝑖	River water height (rated points along streams) (1D)	(0; 10[	(m)
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏 𝐹	Flood hazard conditional Probability (2D)	(0; 100)	(%)
Prognostic stream categorical variables (available each of next 24 hours):
	River overflow status (catchment network) (2D)	5 colors	(countable)

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Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro Av. Athos da Silveira Ramos 274, Prédio do CCMN, cep: 21.941-916, Telefone: + 55 21 3938-9405. - Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil
E-mail: anuario@igeo.ufrj.br

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