Regionalização de vazões máximas, mínima e média para a bacia hidrográfica do Rio Juruena, Brasil

Matos, Talisson Sáteles; Uliana, Eduardo Morgan; Martins, Camila Aparecida da Silva; Rapalo, Luis Miguel Castillo

Talisson Sáteles Matos

Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais. Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT), Avenida Alexandre Ferronato, n° 1200, Cep: 78557-267, Sinop, MT, Brazil. E-mail: talisson07@hotmail.com, morganuliana@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2501-6319

Eduardo Morgan Uliana ^**Corresponding author: Eduardo Morgan Uliana, E-mail: morganuliana@gmail.com

Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais. Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT), Avenida Alexandre Ferronato, n° 1200, Cep: 78557-267, Sinop, MT, Brazil. E-mail: talisson07@hotmail.com, morganuliana@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2107-4634

Camila Aparecida da Silva Martins

Departamento de Engenharia Rural. Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES), Alto Universitário, S/N, CEP: 29500-000, Alegre, ES, Brazil. E-mail: camila.cca@hotmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5645-9230

Luis Miguel Castillo Rapalo

Programa de Pós-Graduação em Recursos Hídricos. Faculdade de Arquitetura, Engenharia e Tecnologia. Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso (UFMT), Avenida Fernando Corrêa, nº 2367, CEP: 78060-900, Cuiabá, MT, Brazil. E-mail: luis.castillo@unah.hn

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6241-7069

^*Corresponding author: Eduardo Morgan Uliana, E-mail: morganuliana@gmail.com

ID	Code	Name	River	City	N	P	Latitude	Longitude	A_D
1	17130000	Foz do Juruena	Juruena	Apiacás	6	1986-1996	-09°55'00"	-58°17'00"	182,458.3
2	17093000	Fontanilhas	Juruena	Juína	30	1978-2013	-11°21'30"	-58°20'34"	55,924.2
3	17123000	Rio Arínos	Arínos	Juara	9	2000-2013	-10°38'21"	-58°00'15"	57,110.1
4	17120000	Porto dos Gaúchos	Arínos	Porto dos Gaúchos	25	1973-2007	-11°32'12"	-57°25'25"	37,069.6
5	17095000	Fazenda Tombador	Rio do Sangue	Brasnorte	21	1984-2013	-11°43'05"	-58°02'53"	24,723.1
6	17122000	Rio dos Peixes	Rio dos Peixes	Juara	6	2000-2007	-10°82'00"	-57°72'00"	14,410.5
7	17091000	Fazenda Tucunaré	Juruena	Sapezal	9	1993-2013	-13°27'39"	-59°00'28"	4,357.9

Flow	Model	ID	Regionalization equation	R²	IC - 95%
Flow	Model	ID	Regionalization equation	R²	β₀	β₁	β₂
Q₉₅	Linear	1	${\hat{Q}}_{95} = 29.200344 + 0.0118407 (A_{D})$	0.93	±289.6	3.76E-03	-
	Potential	2	${\hat{Q}}_{95} = 0.0229462 (A_{D})^{0.9459313}$	0.93	±0.101	0.373	-
		3	${\hat{Q}}_{95} = 0.0000441950 (A_{D})^{3.52950055} (L_{T})^{- 2.216318}$	0.99	±5.5E-05	0.389	4.119
		4	${\hat{Q}}_{95} = 3.651107 . 10^{- 10} (A_{D})^{1.112025} (A l t .)^{2.684034}$	0.99	±1.11E-13	0.109	0.666
Q_ltm	Linear	5	${\hat{Q}}_{l t m} = - 73.964537 + 0.02564964 (A_{D})$	0.99	±148.2	2.35 E-03	-
	Linear	6	${\hat{Q}}_{l t m} = 229.770514 + 0.030680 (A_{D} - 1.474473 (L)$	0.99	±263.9	4.32E-03	1.203
	Potential	7	${\hat{Q}}_{l t m} = 0.01116658 (A_{D})^{1.067962}$	0.99	±1.2E-02	0.091	-
	Potential	8	${\hat{Q}}_{l t m} = 0.00021135 (A_{D})^{1.099310} (A l t {.)}^{0.604282}$	0.99	±7.76E-04	0.069	0.536

Flow	Model	ID	VI	MAE	RMSE	bias	d	E_NS	t
Q₉₅	Linear	1	A_D	130.6	181.3	-2.08E-04	0.981	0.930	2.81E-06^(ns)
	Potential	2	A_D	131.6	180.0	-3.4	0.982	0.931	4.57E-02^(ns)
		3	A_D; L_T	14.1	17.5	5.3	0.999	0.999	7.73E-01^(ns)
		4	A_D; Alt.	20.4	31.1	0.9	0.999	0.998	7.38E-02^(ns)
Q_ltm	Linear	5	A_D	84.1	92.8	3.0	0.999	0.996	7.92E-02^(ns)
	Linear	6	A_D; L	36.1	47.0	-0.01	0.999	0.999	2.95E-04^(ns)
	Potential	7	A_D	64.9	79.9	6.0	0.999	0.997	1.83E-01^(ns)
	Potential	8	A_D; Alt.	32.8	44.0	6.9	0.999	0.999	3.91E-01^(ns)

Code	ID	Station	Return Period (T) - Years
Code	ID	Station	10	20	50	100	500	10,000
17130000	1	Foz Juruena	11,133.0	11,549.0	12,019.0	12,333.0	12,969.0	13,933.0
17093000	2	Fontanilhas	2,302.8	2,365.8	2,439.0	2,489.1	2,593.8	2,762.2
17123000	3	Rio Arinos	3,239.5	3,422.7	3,646.8	3,807.6	4,164.5	4,801.1
17120000	4	Porto dos Gaúchos	1,676.8	1,800.2	1,959.8	2,080.4	2,365.7	2,935.5
17095000	5	Faz. Tombador	1,007.6	1,050.3	1,101.9	1,138.6	1,219.1	1,359.7
17122000	6	Rio dos Peixes	1,112.0	1,162.0	1,213.1	1,244.0	1,298.6	1,362.0
17091000	7	Faz. Tucunaré	204.8	212.2	219.9	225.3	236.6	255.4

Code	ID	Station	Confidence Intervals - 95%
Code	ID	Station	10	20	50	100	500	10,000
17130000	1	Foz Juruena	±1,473.3	±1,786.2	±2,195.4	±4,158.5	±3,199.1	±4,473.9
17093000	2	Fontanilhas	±82.1	±96.1	±114.0	±127.3	±156.7	±207.9
17123000	3	Rio Arinos	±377.8	±454.4	±557.0	±636.0	±821.0	±1,178.3
17120000	4	Porto dos Gaúchos	±162.2	±205.5	±266.6	±315.8	±441.2	±722.3
17095000	5	Faz. Tombador	±60.5	±72.3	±87.5	±99.1	±125.9	±176.3
17122000	6	Rio dos Peixes	±230.8	±282.7	±349.3	±398.9	±508.8	±699.4
17091000	7	Faz. Tucunaré	±14.5	±17.2	±20.6	±23.0	±28.7	±38.7

T (years)	Model	ID	Equation	R²	IC - 95%
T (years)	Model	ID	Equation	R²	β₀	β₁
10	Linear	1	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = - 14.002950 + 0.136674 (L_{T})$	0.99	±209.88	±6.33E-03
	Potential	2	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.008445 (A_{D})^{1.163076}$	0.99	±1.66E-02	±0.168
		3	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.000506 (P)^{1.987922}$	0.99	±1.31E-03	±0.308
		4	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.110875 (L_{T})^{1.018699}$	0.99	±7.51E-02	±6.13E-02
20	Linear	5	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 3.429125 + 0.141698 (L_{T})$	0.99	±191.53	±5.3E-03
	Potential	6	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.009724 (A_{D})^{1,154455}$	0.99	±2.03E-02	±0.174
		7	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.000605 (P)^{1.971241}$	0.99	±1.44E-03	±0.283
		8	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.1252730 (L_{T})^{1.0111630}$	0.99	±7.57E-02	±5.48E-02
50	Linear	9	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 28.686446 + 0.147359 (L_{T})$	0.99	±171.42	±5.14E-03
	Potential	10	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.011680 (A_{D})^{1.142605}$	0.98	±2.53E-02	±0.181
		11	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.000762 (P)^{1.948856}$	0.99	±1.61E-03	±0.251
		12	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.146346 (L_{T})^{1.000965}$	0.99	±7.77E-02	±4.8E-02
100	Linear	13	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 49.537503 + 0.151126 (L_{T})$	0.99	±164.33	±4.87E-03
	Potential	14	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.013399 (A_{D})^{1.133403}$	0.98	±2.96E-02	±0.187
		15	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.000904 (P)^{1.931770}$	0.99	±1.74E-03	±0.228
		16	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.164127 (L_{T})^{0.993126}$	0.99	±8.29E-02	±4.6E-02
500	Linear	17	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 103.381232 + 0.158707 (L_{T})$	0.99	±193.20	±6.3E-02
	Potential	18	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.018379 (A_{D})^{1.111462}$	0.98	±4.36E-02	±0.199
		19	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.001336 (P)^{1.89179259}$	0.99	±1.97E-03	±0.175
		20	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.212920 (L_{T})^{0.974605}$	0.99	±0.113	±4.7E-02
10,000	Linear	21	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 223.809866 + 0.170014 (L_{T})$	0.99	±385.76	±1.2E-02
	Potential	22	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.033007 (A_{D})^{1.069047}$	0.98	±8.8E-02	±0.222
		23	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.002724 (P)^{1.816706}$	0.99	±1.99E-03	±8.6E-02
		24	${\hat{Q}}_{m a x} = 0.341834 (L_{T})^{0.939189}$	0.99	±0.282	±7.5E-02

T	ID	VI	MAE	RMSE	bias	d	E_NS	t
10	1	L_T	112.5	138.5	-1.4E-02	0.9996	0.998	2.5E-04^(ns)
	2	A_D	232.2	312.6	47.0	0.9980	0.992	3.7E-01^(ns)
	3	P	273.4	329.2	57.7	0.9978	0.991	4.4E-01^(ns)
	4	L_T	98.7	130.9	22.5	0.9996	0.999	4.3E-01^(ns)
20	5	L_T	97.0	126.4	0.0	0.9997	0.999	2.8E-04^(ns)
	6	A_D	248.7	340.7	47.6	0.9978	0.991	3.5E-01^(ns)
	7	P	263.6	317.9	55.8	0.9981	0.992	4.4E-01^(ns)
	8	L_T	89.7	123.1	21.0	0.9997	0.999	4.3E-01^(ns)
50	9	L_T	93.4	113.1	2.9E-02	0.9998	0.999	6.2E-04^(ns)
	10	A_D	272.0	375.3	47.4	0.9975	0.990	3.1E-01^(ns)
	11	P	246.3	298.8	51.4	0.9984	0.994	4.3E-01^(ns)
	12	L_T	90.8	115.2	18.3	0.9998	0.999	3.9E-01^(ns)
100	13	L_T	93.9	108.5	0.0	0.9998	0.9992	3.2E-04^(ns)
	14	A_D	294.9	400.8	46.2	0.9973	0.9890	2.8E-01^(ns)
	15	P	231.5	281.9	49.2	0.9987	0.9946	4.3E-01^(ns)
	16	L_T	96.3	113.1	15.7	0.9998	0.9991	3.4E-01^(ns)
500	17	L_T	100.4	127.5	-2.8E-14	0.9997	0.9990	5.5E-16^(ns)
	18	A_D	346.9	461.1	42.3	0.9967	0.9868	2.3E-01^(ns)
	19	P	189.5	235.5	40.5	0.9991	0.9966	4.3E-01^(ns)
	20	L_T	107.5	128.4	8.9	0.9997	0.9990	1.7E-01^(ns)
10,000	21	L_T	214.1	254.6	1.4E-02	0.9991	0.9965	1.4E-04^(ns)
	22	A_D	444.4	586.9	31.1	0.9953	0.9814	1.3E-01^(ns)
	23	P	109.0	133.0	15.9	0.9998	0.9990	2.9E-01^(ns)
	24	L_T	181.6	226.9	-6.3	0.9993	0.9972	6.8E-02^(ns)

[1] ^*Corresponding author: Eduardo Morgan Uliana, E-mail: morganuliana@gmail.com

Code	ID	Station	P-value	α	β	γ
17130000	1	Foz Juruena	0.978	68.243	-1.386E-02	10.121
17093000	2	Fontanilhas	0.956	33,382.0	4.047E-04	-5.8633
17123000	3	Rio Arinos	0.994	100.790	1.375E-02	6.5178
17120000	4	Porto dos Gaúchos	0.996	12.143	4.389E-02	6.6887
17095000	5	Faz. Tombador	0.999	71.323	1.211E-02	5.9182
17122000	6	Rio dos Peixes	0.898	6.487	-7.654E-02	7.2827
17091000	7	Faz. Tucunaré	0.887	582.732	3.444E-03	3.2119

Brasil

Brasil

Regionalização de vazões máximas, mínima e média para a bacia hidrográfica do Rio Juruena, Brasil

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