The impact of macroeconomic variables on socio-economic indicators of agricultural section based on government development programs

O impacto das variáveis macroeconômicas nos indicadores socioeconômicos do setor agropecuário com base nos programas de desenvolvimento do governo

Abstract

In this paper, the short-term and long-term effects of macroeconomic variables on socio-economic indicators of agricultural sector, including price index, rural unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP) over the first to six government development programs were investigated. The auto-regressive distributed lag approach (ARDL) was used. The results showed that in the short run, inflation rate with a delay has a significant and negative effect on employment in the agricultural sector and increases the level of rural unemployment. The findings suggest that the effects of liquidity and inflation rate in the short run on the GDP are negative and government spending in the short run has a positive effect on the agricultural price index. In the long run, the effect of these variables on agricultural inflation is similar to the short term, but with the difference that the elasticities were larger.

Keywords:
socio-economic indicators; agriculture sector; rural unemployment; macroeconomic variables