The Brazilian power grid has been traditionally designed and operated using a set of deterministic reliability criteria. This method has played an important role in the design and operation of the Brazilian bulk power system for decades. However, deterministic criterions tend to use available resources less optimally and stress facilities in the context of transmissions capacity. In the expansion planning, for instance, the main deterministic criterion is the well know n-1. With regard to the approval of scheduled maintenance of transmission equipment on the basic grid, the Brazilian Independent System Operator (ISO) is the n-2. This criterion requires that the electrical system support the unavailability of any particular transmission element that has been deactivated for maintenance purposes, as well as any other contingency situations that may arise, without violating any system constraints. This paper discusses the limitations of the deterministic reliability criteria and proposes a new approach entirely based on probabilistic techniques. The new method allows a more efficient scheduled maintenance during medium load workdays, without significantly increasing the risk level of the system. The expected result of implementing this new criterion is a reduction in operations and maintenance costs, which should in turn reduce the electricity rates paid by end users.
Reliability; deterministic criteria; probabilistic criteria; severity index
