Measuring and Explaining the Instability of Presidential Cabinets in Brazil between 1946 and 1964

Abstract:

We measured the instability of the Executive branch in Brazil by examining ministerial turnover rates. We designed a model with twelve covariates to determine their impact on minister dismissals and, therefore, on the political instability across different administrations between 1946 and 1964. These variables referred to ministerial profiles, institutional and situational factors, spanning both political and economic dimensions. Our findings, obtained by employing the Cox proportional hazards model, revealed two pivotal factors in explaining the political configuration during this timeframe: a rise in the effective number of parties in the Chamber of Deputies and consistent fluctuations in the number of parties represented in the ministerial cabinet, driven by the necessity to accommodate allies. Political variables associated with regime consolidation, such as the age of democracy, or economic variables, such as the increases in GDP and the decline in inflation rates, were not significant.

Keywords:
Presidentialism; Political coalitions; Ministerial cabinets; Political instability