The future of the potato production in Brazil is discussed upon prediction of temperature rise due to global warming. A literature review was carried out on the effects of high temperatures on the potato plant metabolism, and their consequences upon vegetative development and yield. Although higher emphasis was devoted to the climate effect on food production, the risk of genetic erosion by disappearance of wild species is stressed, with consequences to the future of plant breeding. Based on this information and on climate data from the main growing regions published on Brazilian documents, we carried out a prospective analysis of the potato production in Brazil. For that, a temperature rise of up to 5ºC was considered to the end of the century, and the range of 10ºC to 25ºC as the optimum for potato growth, according to specialized literature. For the study, six counties, representative of the main growing regions, were selected: São Joaquim, Santa Catarina State; Guarapuava, Paraná State; Cristalina, Goiás State; Mucugê, Bahia State; Vargem Grande do Sul, São Paulo State and Araxá, Minas Gerais State. For cooler counties, such as São Joaquim, major drawbacks on potato production are not expected, even though adjustments in planting season should be required. However, cropping on those counties subject to high temperatures which today allow potato production all year round, like Mucugê, and Cristalina, is expected to be restricted to few months of the year. The aim of this article was to alert, not alarm, the Brazilian potato chain in order to promote the management changes to preserve the crop in case the expected temperature rise comes true. In addition, the role of plant breeding to counteract the negative effects of high temperature is discussed.
Solanum tuberosum; physiology; temperature; climatic change
