This work presents a novel simulation-based forecasting approach combining concepts from the Bass Diffusion Model and the Discrete Choice Model from a System Dynamics perspective. The proposed approach allows for the forecasting of the adoption rate and the timing of adoption by examining the underlying preferences of individual customers and the social forces that influence these underlying preferences. A real-scale preliminary application to the German market for electric cars, parameterized through a conjoint analysis, is provided. Simulation results show the potential of the proposed approach, which provides evidence for the main factors that influence the electric vehicle adoption process in Germany.
Demand forecasting; System dynamics; Automotive industry; Market research
