A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods

Abstract

Paper aims

Propose a continuous decision support system, a Digital Twin, integrating two widely used techniques, Discrete Event Simulation and forecasting methods.

Originality

With the evolution of the industry, there is a growing need for increasingly agile and assertive decision support systems. Also, familiar tools and techniques tend to change over time to suit such a scenario, supporting new researches on their use in the modern industry.

Research method

The proposed method allows the use of simulation, with the aid of forecasting methods, for continuous decision making, composing the so-called Digital Twin. The method was applied in a real process to validate it.

Main findings

The Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting methods were used to supply the simulation model in order to test scenarios and guide decision making. The developed system enabled a virtual copy with a certain degree of intelligence and that provides answers to make the constant decision-making process more efficient.

Implications for theory and practice

The proposed method can be used for several operational problems like headcount, production planning and covers different levels of decision. Therefore, it can be used both on the shop floor and at managerial levels.

Keywords
Decision support system; Discrete Event Simulation; Forecasting methods; Digital Twin; Operational planning