DATE |
Forecast lag |
The increase in the forecast lag decreases the superiority of analysts. |
Brown, Hagerman et al. (1987)Brown, L. D., Hagerman, R. L., Griffin, P. A., & Zmijewski, M. E. (1987). An evaluation of alternative proxies for the market's assessment of unexpected earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 9(2), 159-193., Bradshaw et al. (2012)Bradshaw, M. T., Drake, M. S., Myers, J. N., & Myers, L. A. (2012). A re-examination of analysts' superiority over time-series forecasts of annual earnings. Review of Accounting Studies, 17(1), 944-968., Lacina et al. (2011)Lacina, M., Lee, B. B., & Xu, R. Z. (2011). An evaluation of financial analysts and naïve methods in forecasting long-term earnings. In K. D Lawrence & R. K. Klimberg (Eds.), Advances in business and management forecasting (pp. 77-101). Bingley, UK: Emerald., Lorek and Pagach (2014)Lorek, S. K., & Pagach, D. P. (2014). Analysts versus time-series forecasts of quarterly earnings: A maintained hypothesis revisited. Recuperado de https://ssrn.com/abstract=2406013 https://ssrn.com/abstract=2406013...
and Ball and Ghysels (2017)Ball, R., & Ghysels, E. (2017). Automated earnings forecasts: Beat analysts or combine and conquer? Management Science, 64(10). doi:10.1287/mnsc.2017.2864 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2864...
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ANALYST |
Number of analysts |
A lower number of analysts decreases the superiority of analysts. |
Bradshaw et al. (2012)Bradshaw, M. T., Drake, M. S., Myers, J. N., & Myers, L. A. (2012). A re-examination of analysts' superiority over time-series forecasts of annual earnings. Review of Accounting Studies, 17(1), 944-968. and Lacina et al. (2011)Lacina, M., Lee, B. B., & Xu, R. Z. (2011). An evaluation of financial analysts and naïve methods in forecasting long-term earnings. In K. D Lawrence & R. K. Klimberg (Eds.), Advances in business and management forecasting (pp. 77-101). Bingley, UK: Emerald.. |
DPROE |
ROE standard deviation; return on equity of the last three years |
The superiority of analysts is lower for more volatile results. |
Bradshaw et al. (2012)Bradshaw, M. T., Drake, M. S., Myers, J. N., & Myers, L. A. (2012). A re-examination of analysts' superiority over time-series forecasts of annual earnings. Review of Accounting Studies, 17(1), 944-968., Branson, Lorek, and Pagach (1995)Branson, B. C., Lorek, K. S., & Pagach, D. P. (1995). Evidence on the supe riority of analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts for small capitalization firms. Decision Sciences, 26(2), 243-263., Kross, Ro, and Schroeder (1990)Kross, W., Ro, B., & Schroeder, D. (1990). The analysts' information advantage. The Accounting Review, 65(2), 461-476., Lacina et al. (2011)Lacina, M., Lee, B. B., & Xu, R. Z. (2011). An evaluation of financial analysts and naïve methods in forecasting long-term earnings. In K. D Lawrence & R. K. Klimberg (Eds.), Advances in business and management forecasting (pp. 77-101). Bingley, UK: Emerald.. |
DPPREV |
Standard deviation of the estimates by analysts |
Greater dispersion in the estimates from analysts is related to less superiority of market analysts. |
Ball and Ghysels (2017)Ball, R., & Ghysels, E. (2017). Automated earnings forecasts: Beat analysts or combine and conquer? Management Science, 64(10). doi:10.1287/mnsc.2017.2864 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2864...
and Brown et al. (1987)Brown, L. D., Hagerman, R. L., Griffin, P. A., & Zmijewski, M. E. (1987). An evaluation of alternative proxies for the market's assessment of unexpected earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 9(2), 159-193.. |
TIME |
Company's time in the capital market |
Companies with more time in the market tend to show higher superiority of analysts. |
Bradshaw et al. (2012)Bradshaw, M. T., Drake, M. S., Myers, J. N., & Myers, L. A. (2012). A re-examination of analysts' superiority over time-series forecasts of annual earnings. Review of Accounting Studies, 17(1), 944-968., Martinez (2004)Martinez, A. L. (2004). Analisando os analistas: Estudo empírico das projeções de lucros e das recomendações dos analistas de mercado de capitais para as empresas brasileiras de capital aberto (Tese de doutorado, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, Brasil). and Mikhail, Walther, and Willis (1997)Mikhail, M., Walthier, B., & Willis, R. (1997). Do security analysts improve their performance with experience? Journal of Accounting Research, 35, 131-157.. |
IBRX100 |
Companies listed in the theoretical portfolio of IBRX100 |
Companies that do not belong to any market indexes show less superiority of analysts. |
Kross et al. (1990)Kross, W., Ro, B., & Schroeder, D. (1990). The analysts' information advantage. The Accounting Review, 65(2), 461-476.. |
SIZE |
Natural logarithm of the company's assets |
The superiority of analysts is lower for small companies. |
Bradshaw et al. (2012)Bradshaw, M. T., Drake, M. S., Myers, J. N., & Myers, L. A. (2012). A re-examination of analysts' superiority over time-series forecasts of annual earnings. Review of Accounting Studies, 17(1), 944-968., Branson et al. (1995)Branson, B. C., Lorek, K. S., & Pagach, D. P. (1995). Evidence on the supe riority of analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts for small capitalization firms. Decision Sciences, 26(2), 243-263. and Brown et al. (1987)Brown, L. D., Hagerman, R. L., Griffin, P. A., & Zmijewski, M. E. (1987). An evaluation of alternative proxies for the market's assessment of unexpected earnings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 9(2), 159-193.. |
POSITIVE |
Companies with positive results |
The superiority of analysts is lower for companies with negative results. |
Bradshaw et al. (2012)Bradshaw, M. T., Drake, M. S., Myers, J. N., & Myers, L. A. (2012). A re-examination of analysts' superiority over time-series forecasts of annual earnings. Review of Accounting Studies, 17(1), 944-968. and Lorek and Pagach (2014)Lorek, S. K., & Pagach, D. P. (2014). Analysts versus time-series forecasts of quarterly earnings: A maintained hypothesis revisited. Recuperado de https://ssrn.com/abstract=2406013 https://ssrn.com/abstract=2406013...
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