OBJECTIVE: This study aims at two objectives: I) to develop a model capable of predicting the statistical distribution of the variable "time elapsed since the last medical visit"; II) to empirically test the theoretical model. METHODS: To develop the theoretical model, the author will use a demonstration that is statistical in nature. In order to test the theoretical distribution, the 2006 Encuesta Nacional de España data regarding females will be used. RESULTS: The results found show that the distribution of the time elapsed since the last medical visit follows a Poisson distribution. This conclusion was empirically validated, and additionally, a few determinants were found that increase the likelihood that Spanish women will resort to a doctor, namely, inactivity, residence in small places and being older. CONCLUSION: The study concluded that the time elapsed since the last medical visit follows a Poisson distribution; thus, going to a medical appointment is still seen as a rare phenomenon for Spanish women. By comparing this data with our results, we found that a higher ratio of physicians to population, a higher time availability for each woman (especially in a labor inactivity setting) and strong personal relationships can lead to a higher medical visit rate, thus reducing the time elapsed since the last visit.
Medical referral and visit; Poisson distribution; Spanish Public Health
