Health and education: An impact analysis applying propensity score matching

Rocha, Maria Estela Basilio de Oliveira; Nishimura, Fábio Nobuo

doi:10.5935/0034-7140.20230017

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Revista Brasileira de Economia

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Original Article • Rev. Bras. Econ. 77 • 2023 • https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20230017 copy

Health and education: An impact analysis applying propensity score matching

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

In this paper, we estimated the effect of the School Health Program (PSE) on the total failure, total dropout, and total age/grade distortion rates based on microdata. Data was withdrawn from the School Census and Educational Indicators, published by INEP (Brazilian National Agency for Education and Research), and the list of public schools agreed in 2017 with the PSE, provided by the Ministry of Education (MEC). The Propensity Score Matching method applied sensitivity analyses developed by Ichino, Mealli, and Nannicini (2008Ichino, A., Mealli, F., & Nannicini, T. (2008). From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: What can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 305-327.) and Oster (2017)Oster, E. (2017). Unobservable selection and coefficient stability: Theory and evidence. Jounal of Business & Economic Statistics, 37(2), 187-204. and heterogeneous tests to deepen questions intrinsic to the theme. The findings appoint to a fall in the total rates of failure, dropout, and age-grade distortion in schools under PSE compared to schools not participating in the Program. Such effects are significant and stand out in the total failure rate. In addition, it was noted that the PSE causes a more significant impact on the initial grades of middle school (1^st to 5^th grades) compared to the final years (6^th to 9^th grades). The sensitivity analyses proposed by Ichino et al. (2008)Ichino, A., Mealli, F., & Nannicini, T. (2008). From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: What can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 305-327. and Oster (2017)Oster, E. (2017). Unobservable selection and coefficient stability: Theory and evidence. Jounal of Business & Economic Statistics, 37(2), 187-204. confirmed the result’s robustness. Heterogeneous response tests applied in sample subgroups of teacher characteristics, class characteristics, and socioeconomic level of the school indicated a reduction in the analyzed rates, reinforcing the main result. All considered this study confirmed the hypothesis that schools with PSE agreements present a decrease in the total failure rate, total dropout rate, and total age/grade distortion rate.

JEL Codes I00, I11, I18

Keywords
health; education; propensity score matching; PSE

Adhesion Criterium	Amount	Transfer
Brazilian Municipalities plus priority cities (high childhood obesity rates) - 1 two-year adhesion cycle.	Max. 600 students = R$5,676.00. For every 800 extra students = plus R$1,000.	A single payment at adhesion. The municipality becomes ineligible to receive the funding if: (i) accomplishes less than two actions; (ii) does not accomplish the 12th action (AedesEgypt); (iii) accomplishes actions at only one school.

VARIABLE	EXPLANATION
	DependentVariables
Total failure rate	Percentage of students who did not earn a minimum passing grade at the end of the school year
Total dropout rate	Percentage of students who dropped out of school in the school year
Total age-grade distortion rate	Percentage of students who are two or more years older than recommended for a given school grade based on age established for admission in middle school, which is 6 years old
	IndependentVariables
School Health Program (PSE)	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school is participating in the program and Dummy = 0 indicates otherwise
	ControlVariables
Filtered water	Dummy = 1 indicates that the water provided to students is filtered, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Electricity	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school is supplied with electric power, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Garbage collection	Dummy = 1 indicates that there is a regular garbage collection, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Kitchen	Dummy = 1 indicates that there is a kitchen in the school, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Library	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school has a library, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Bathroom	Dummy = 1 indicates that there are bathrooms in the school, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
PNE bathroom	Dummy = 1 indicates a bathroom for the disabled in the school, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Copier machine	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school has a copier machine, and Dummy 0 indicates otherwise
Science lab	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school has a Science Lab, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Student accommodation	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school has student accommodation, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Teacher accommodation	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school has teacher accommodation, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Meals	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school provides meals to students, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Assistance	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school has a room dedicated to Assistance, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Special material for Quilombolas^a	Dummy = 1 indicates that the school uses pedagogical material specially developed for quilombola students, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise
Special material for indigenous people	Dummy = 1 indicates the school uses pedagogical material specially developed for indigenous students, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise

SUBGROUP	EXPLANATION
Teacher Characteristic
Rate of school teachers holding a higher education degree (DSU)	Percentage of school teachers holding a higher education degree.
Rate of teachers whose subject matter is suitable to their training (AFD)	Percentage of school teachers holding a higher education degree or a bachelor’s degree with additional training on the subject area they teach.
Teacher Effort Load (IED) Class Characteristics	Percentage rate of teachers’effort regarding aspects of their practice that generate an overload.
Student average per class (ATU)	The average number of students per middle school class.
Average daily class hour (HAD) Socioeconomic Level	The average number of daily class hours per school in middle school.
School Socioeconomic Level (INSE)	Dummy = 1 for very low level, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise. Dummy = 1 for low level, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise Dummy = 1 for a low medium level, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise. Dummy = 1 for a medium level, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise. Dummy = 1 for a high medium level, and Dummy = 0 shows otherwise.

	Control		Treated		Difference
	Mean	Standard Deviation	Mean	Standard Deviation	Diff	DP
Dependent Variables Total failure rate	7.11	0.047	8.22	0.392	-1.10	0.061
Total dropout rate	1.27	0.016	1.82	0.015	-0.54	0.023
Total age-grade distortion	17.61	0.093	20.92	0.749	-3.30	0.119
Control Variables FilteredWater	0.866	0.340	0.876	0.328	-0.010	0.002
Electricity	0.989	0.103	0.995	0.070	-0.005	0.000
Garbage Collection	0.010	0.099	0.010	0.103	0.000	0.000
Kitchen	0.980	0.139	0.984	0.124	-0.004	0.001
Library	0.530	0.499	0.499	0.500	0.030	0.004
Bathroom	0.149	0.356	0.169	0.375	-0.019	0.003
PNEToilet	0.590	0.491	0.535	0.498	0.055	0.004
Copier machine	0.567	0.495	0.549	0.497	0.018	0.004
Science laboratory	0.199	0.399	0.103	0.305	0.095	0.002
Student accommodation	0.006	0.077	0.002	0.051	0.003	0.000
Teacher Accommodation	0.008	0.093	0.006	0.080	0.002	0.000
Meals	0.994	0.071	0.997	0.050	-0.002	0.000
Special assistance room	0.414	0.492	0.395	0.488	0.019	0.004
Special material for quilombolas	0.005	0.073	0.009	0.099	-0.004	0.000
Special material for indigenous people	0.003	0.056	0.003	0.556	0.000	0.004
N-Obs	21,110			33,039

Variable		Pseudo R2	Mean Bias	Median Bias
Total failure rate	Not matched	0.227	4.5	3.5
	Matched	0.18	1	0.6
Total dropout rate	Not matched	0.233	4.5	3.5
	Matched	0.017	1.1	0.6
Total age-grade distortion rate	Not matched	0.233	4.5	3.5
	Matched	0.017	1.1	0.6

	Total failure rate			Total dropout rate			Total age-grade distortion rate
	Total	Initial grades	Final grades	Total	Initial grades	Final grades	Total	Initial grades	Final grades
Probit Method
NN(1)	^-5 62 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-11.78^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-2.44^ Significant to 5%;	-4.45 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-10.39^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“4.39^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5 58 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-9 21 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“3 18^* ***** Significantto 1%.
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)
NN(2)	-6.98^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-14.00^* ***** Significantto 1%.	^-3 30 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5.90^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“Ί 2 57 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5 Ί8 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“6 99 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-11.63^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“3 21 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.
	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)
Kernel	^-9.87^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“20.97 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	_ 4 17 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“7 59 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-Ί7.9Ί ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5 Ί5 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“8 55 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“16 95 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“2 77^* ***** Significantto 1%.
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)
LLR	-497 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-11.47^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-2.19^ Significant to 5%;	-4 46 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“9.85 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“2 93 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5 10^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“9.34 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-1.83^* * Significantto 10%;
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)	(0.011)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.010)
Logit Method
NN(1)	^-5 71 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	_ί 2 77 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-2.01^ Significant to 5%;	-4.09^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“ΊΊ 22^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“3 96 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-5.40^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-10.17^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-2.52^ Significant to 5%;
	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.122)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.010)
NN(2)	_ y^* * Significantto 10%; ] ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“Ί5 23^* ***** Significantto 1%.	^-3 Ί 9 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5 52 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-Ί3.43 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“4.78 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-6.56^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-12.62^* ***** Significantto 1%.	~2 76 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.
	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.008)
Kernel	^-9.98^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-21.16^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-4.24^* ***** Significantto 1%.	_y 76 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-18.08^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5 Ί 7 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-8.66^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-17.10^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“2 77^* ***** Significantto 1%.
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)
LLR	-5.00^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-11.87^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-2.29^ Significant to 5%;	“4 72 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-10.21	“3 01 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“5 32 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	“9 65 ^* ***** Significantto 1%.	-1.87^* * Significantto 10%;
	(0.014)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.010)
N. Obs.					56,745

	p11	p10	p01	p00	Γ	Λ	ATT	SE
Total failure rate In confouder	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-	-0.084	0.025
Filtered water	0.840	0.900	0.870	0.820	1.444	0.999	-0.088	0.027
Electricity	1.000	1.000	0.990	0.980	3.943	3.641	-0.083	0.026
Garbage collection	0.010	0.030	0.010	0.010	0.766	1.483	-0.081	0.026
Kitchen	0.990	0.980	0.980	0.990	0.729	1.664	-0.080	0.027
Library	0.460	0.490	0.530	0.590	0.774	0.755	-0.089	0.028
Bathroom	0.140	0.210	0.150	0.180	0.810	1.025	-0.073	0.027
PNE bathroom	0.490	0.560	0.590	0.620	0.890	0.705	-0.088	0.029
Copier equipment	0.540	0.550	0.560	0.610	0.813	0.887	-0.084	0.028
Science laboratory	0.100	0.050	0.190	0.190	0.995	0.418	-0.082	0.027
Student accommodation	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.801	0.973	-0.080	0.026
Teacher accommodation	0.000	0.020	0.010	0.020	0.550	0.694	-0.080	0.027
Meals	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.753	0.000	-0.081	0.027
Special assistance room	0.390	0.400	0.390	0.500	0.633	0.935	-0.089	0.028
Special material for quilombolas	0.010	0.010	0.000	0.00	0.684	3.270	-0.078	0.027
Special material for indigenous people	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.395	1.819	-0.079	0.026
Total dropout rate No confouder	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-	-0.036	0.028
Filtered water	0.850	0.870	0.870	0.860	1.095	1.025	-0.041	0.031
Electricity	0.990	1.000	0.970	1.000	0.090	4.419	-0.032	0.030
Garbage collection	0.020	0.010	0.010	0.010	1.677	1.377	-0.035	0.030
Kitchen	0.980	0.990	0.960	0.990	0.250	1.748	-0.026	0.030
Library	0.430	0.490	0.570	0.520	1.254	0.736	-0.044	0.033
Bathroom	0.110	0.180	0.080	0.190	0.337	1.102	-0.040	0.031
PNE bathroom	0.520	0.490	0.530	0.620	0.713	0.706	-0.044	0.033
Copier equipment	0.520	0.550	0.550	0.580	0.885	0.907	-0.045	0.030
Science laboratory	0.140	0.060	0.270	0.150	2.092	0.382	-0.032	0.032
Student accommodation	0.010	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.854	0.851	-0.028	0.030
Teacher accommodation	0.010	0.010	0.030	0.010	5.257	0.581	-0.039	0.030
Meals	1.000	1.000	0.990	1.000	0.331	0.000	-0.030	0.030
Special assistance room	0.330	0.420	0.310	0.450	0.532	0.976	-0.050	0.032
Special material for quilombolas	0.010	0.010	0.010	0.000	3.763	2.876	-0.024	0.030
Special material for indigenous people	0.000	0.010	0.000	0.000	1.575	2.227	-0.024	0.030
Total age-grade distortion rate In confouder	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-	-0.086	0.029
Filtered water	0.850	0.870	0.820	0.890	0.575	1.101	-0.077	0.032
Electricity	0.990	1.000	0.980	1.000	0.073	4.554	-0.083	0.032
Kitchen	0.980	0.990	0.970	0.990	0.216	1.901	-0.076	0.032
Library	0.430	0.510	0.610	0.490	1.672	0.712	-0.070	0.035
Bathroom	0.120	0.190	0.120	0.180	0.649	1.108	-0.073	0.032
PNE bathroom	0.530	0.480	0.550	0.620	0.764	0.708	-0.078	0.033
Copier equipment	0.540	0.540	0.600	0.540	1.321	0.867	-0.074	0.032
Student accommodation	0.010	0.000	0.010	0.000	2.940	0.807	-0.077	0.031
Teacher accommodation	0.010	0.000	0.020	0.000	13.796	0.505	-0.082	0.032
Meals	1.000	1.000	0.990	1.000	0.360	0.000	-0.075	0.032
Special assistance room	0.360	0.420	0.370	0.440	0.754	0.961	-0.081	0.033
Special material for quilombolas	0.010	0.010	0.010	0.000	3.809	2.945	-0.071	0.032
Special material for indigenous people	0.000	0.010	0.000	0.000	3.661	2.150	-0.081	0.032

Max. R	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9	1
Total failure rate δ for β=0	3.33	2.84	2.48	2.19	1.97
Set, Id. (δ=1)	[0.108; 0.134]	[0.103; 0.134]	[0.097; 0.134]	[0.091; 0.134]	[0.085; 0.134]
total dropout rate δ for β=0	2.40	2.04	1.78	1.58	1.42
Set, Id. (δ=1)	[0.132; 0.149]	[0.127; 0.149]	[0.121; 0.149]	[0.113; 0.149]	[0.103; 0.149]
Total age-grade distortion rate δ for β=0	6.71	5.73	5.00	4.43	4.43
Set, Id. (δ=1)	[0.222; 0.178]	[0.235; 0.178]	[0.250; 0.178]	[0.269; 0.178]	[0.292; 0.178]

	Rate of school’s teachers holding a higher education degree (DSU)
	Total failure rate	Total dropout rate	total age-grade distortion rate
Probit Method NN(1)	-5.00^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.70^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.67^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.020)
NN(2)	-6.58^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.74^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-5.44^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.015)
Kernel	-8.25^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-4.17^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-7.37^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)
LLR	-4.48^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-2.80^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.18^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.020)
Logit Method NN(1)	-5.46^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.89^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.80^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.020)
NN(2)	-6.67^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-4.31^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-5.25^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.015)
Kernel	-8.27^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-4.18^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-7.37^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)
LLR	-4.49^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-2.81^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.19^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	0.012	(0.011)	(0.020)

		Teacher effort load (IED)
	Total failure rate	Total dropout rate	total age-grade distortion rate
Probit Method NN(1)	-7.14^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.28^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-2.53^∗∗ ∗∗ significant to 5%;
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.023)
NN(2)	-7.56^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.43^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.87^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.011)	(0.012)	(0.017)
Kernel	-9.79^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-5.56^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-6.18^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.010)
LLR	-5.85^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.56^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-2.81^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.023)
Logit Method NN(1)	-6.81^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-4.23^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-2.71^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.022)
NN(2)	-7.94^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-4.67^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.48^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.017)
Kernel	-9.8∗∗∗	-5.58^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-6.2∗∗∗
	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.010)
LLR	-5.79^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-3.54^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.	-2.84^∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ significant to 1%.
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.022)

	Rate of teachers trained for the subject they teach (AFD) - Full Teaching License			Rate of teachers trained for the subject they teach (AFD) - BA degree
	Total failure rate	Total dropout rate	Total age-grade distortion rate	Total failure rate	Total dropout rate	Total age-grade distortion rate
Probit Method
NN(1)	-3.80^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.12^ significant to 5%;	-479 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-6 44 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	_3 73 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.42 ^ significant to 5%;
	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.027)
NN(2)	-3 96 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.15^ significant to 5%;	^-5 16 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-6.80^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 11^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.90^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.016)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.021)
Kernel	^-3 71 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.71^* * Significant to 10%;	^-8 12^* ***** significant to 1%.	^-7.99 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 66 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4 31 ^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.014)
LLR	-1.98^ significant to 5%;	-1.12^* * Significant to 10%;	^-3.04^* ***** significant to 1%.	“4.80 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.28^ significant to 5%;	-2.06^ significant to 5%;
	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.027)
Logit Method
NN(1)	-3 37 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.75^* * Significant to 10%;	-466 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-6.62 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.99^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2 61 ^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.027)
NN(2)	-3 61 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.82^* * Significant to 10%;	^-4.89^* ***** significant to 1%.	-7 18 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.38	-3 03 ^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.016)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.021)
Kernel	-3 71 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.70^* * Significant to 10%;	- 8 13^* ***** significant to 1%.	-8.00^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 59 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4.30 ^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.013)
LLR	-2.00^ significant to 5%;	-1.15^* * Significant to 10%;	-3.08^* ***** significant to 1%.	^-4.83 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.30^ significant to 5%;	-2.09^ significant to 5%;
	(0.013)	(0.012)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.017)	(0.027)

	Average of student per class (ATU)			Average of daily class hour (HAD)
	Total failure rate	Total dropout rate	Total age-grade distortion rate	Total failure rate	Total dropout rate	Total age-grade distortion rate
Probit Method
NN(1)	-6.71 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	^-4.99^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-4.80^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-9.29^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-3 51^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-3.84^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.019)	(0.014)	(0.015)	-0.033
NN(2)	- 8 82 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-5 59 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-6.61 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-10.41 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-484^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-4.98 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.015)	(0.012)	(0.012)	-0.025
Kernel	-12.03^* ***** significant to 1 %.	- 7.03 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-8.56^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-11.19^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-5 37 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-6.83^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	-0.013
LLR	-6.03^* ***** significant to 1 %.	“4.02 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-414^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-7 17 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-3 38 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-2 61 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.019)	(0.014)	(0.015)	-0.033
Logit Method
NN(1)	-6.85^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-5.08^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-4.90 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-8.88^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-2.66^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-2 85 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.019)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.033)
NN(2)	-8 52 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-5 96 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-6.58^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-10.44^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-3.90^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-3 93 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.011)	(0.010)	(0.015)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.025)
Kernel	-12.03^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-7.03 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-8.54^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-11.16^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-5 35 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-6.80^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.012)
LLR	-6.01 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-3 96 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-4 13^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-7.08^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-3 37 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.	-2 61 ^* ***** significant to 1 %.
	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.019)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.033)

NSCE	Total Failure Rate					Total Dropout Rate				Age-Grade Distortion Total Rate
NSCE	Very Low	Low	Medium Low	Medium	High Medium	Very Low Low	Medium Low	Medium	High Medium	Very Low	Low	Medium Low	Medium	High Medium
Probit Method
NN(1)	-3.48 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.09^ significant to 5%;	-2.89^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4 35 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.13^ significant to 5%;	-2.10^ significant to 5%; -2.10^ significant to 5%;	-2.94^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.27^ significant to 5%;	-2.10^ significant to 5%;	-2.10^ significant to 5%;	-2.08^ significant to 5%;	-3 82 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3.49 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.08^ significant to 5%;
	(0.033)	(0.024)	(0.015)	(0.022)	(0.042)	(0.033) (0.033)	(0.017)	(0.016)	(0.024)	(0.032)	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.034)	(0.038)
NN(2)	^-3 75 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3.11^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 37 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4 51 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.55^* * Significant to 10%;	-3 19 ^* *** significant to 1%. -2 01^ ** significant to 5%;	-2 59 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 01 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.49 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.00^ significant to 5%;	-2.73^ significant to 5%;	-5 63 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4 32 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.37^ significant to 5%;
	(0.029)	(0.021)	(0.012)	(0.017)	(0.035)	(0.033) (0.028)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.018)	(0.028)	(0.024)	(0.019)	(0.024)	(0.028)
Kernel	-3.93^* ***** significant to 1%.	^-4 32 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4 51 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-5.88^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.28^ significant to 5%;	-453^* *** significant to 1%. -2 22^ ** significant to 5%;	-3 56 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 62 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.46^ significant to 5%;	-2.10^ significant to 5%;	-2.52^ significant to 5%;	-9 69 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-7.66^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2 97 ^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.025)	(0.016)	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.026)	(0.027) (0.021)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.023)	(0.018)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.016)
LLR	-2.88^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2 96 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.39^ significant to 5%;	-2 82 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.50^* * Significant to 10%;	-3.28^* ***** significant to 1%. -1.87^* * Significant to 10%;	-1.98^ significant to 5%;	-1.85^* * Significant to 10%;	-1.27^* * Significant to 10%;	-1.60^* * Significant to 10%;	-1.98^ significant to 5%;	-3.84^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.36^ significant to 5%;	-1.30^* * Significant to 10%;
	(0.033)	(0.024)	(0.015)	(0.022)	(0.042)	(0.038) (0.033)	(0.017)	(0.016)	(0.024)	(0.032)	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.034)	(0.038)
Logit Method
NN(1)	-3.25^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.02^ significant to 5%;	-2.21^ significant to 5%;	-4 35 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2 61^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2 69^* *** significant to 1%. -2 07^ ** significant to 5%;	-2.38^ significant to 5%;	-2.52^ significant to 5%;	-2 64^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.28^ significant to 5%;	-1.89^* * Significant to 10%;	-3 93 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 37 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.13^ significant to 5%;
	(0.034)	(0.023)	(0.015)	(0.022)	(0.042)	(0.039) (0.031)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.025)	(0.031)	-0.030	(0.026)	(0.034)	(0.038)
NN(2)	_3.8 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	_ 2 97 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3.06^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4.79 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.58^* * Significant to 10%;	-3.39^* ***** significant to 1%. -1.90^* * Significant to 10%;	-3 45 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 13 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.04^ significant to 5%;	-1.95 ^ significant to 5%;	-2.08^ significant to 5%;	-5 91 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-4.48^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2 61^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.029)	(0.020)	(0.012)	(0.017)	(0.034)	(0.033) (0.027)	(0.014)	(0.013)	(0.018)	(0.028)	(0.025)	(0.019)	(0.024)	(0.028)
Kernel	_3 92 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	_ 4 23 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-449 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-5.89^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.14^ significant to 5%;	-444^* *** significant to 1%. -2.15^ ** significant to 5%;	-3 62 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-3 63 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.41 ^ significant to 5%;	-2.05 ^ significant to 5%;	-2.50^ significant to 5%;	-9 67 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-7 72 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.90^* ***** significant to 1%.
	(0.025)	(0.016)	(0.008)	(0.010)	(0.026)	(0.027) (0.021)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.013)	(0.023)	(0.018)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.016)
LLR	-2.78^* ***** significant to 1%.	_3.05 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.40^ significant to 5%;	-2.84^* ***** significant to 1%.	-1.42^* * Significant to 10%;	-3.14^* ***** significant to 1%. -1.93^* * Significant to 10%;	-2.12^ significant to 5%;	-1.79^* * Significant to 10%;	-1.20^* * Significant to 10%;	-1.62^* * Significant to 10%;	-1.93^* * Significant to 10%;	-3 87 ^* ***** significant to 1%.	-2.36^ significant to 5%;	-1.30^* * Significant to 10%;
	(0.034)	(0.023)	(0.015)	(0.022)	(0.042)	(0.039) (0.031)	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.025)	(0.031)	(0.030)	(0.026)	(0.034)	(0.038)

Fundação Getúlio Vargas Praia de Botafogo, 190 11º andar, 22253-900 Rio de Janeiro RJ Brazil, Tel.: +55 21 3799-5831 , Fax: +55 21 2553-8821 - Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil
E-mail: rbe@fgv.br

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