Temporal trends of morbidities, and risk and protective factors for noncommunicable diseases in elderly residents in Brazilian capitals

Silva, Alanna Gomes da; Andrade, Fabiana Martins Dias de; Ribeiro, Edmar Geraldo; Malta, Deborah Carvalho

doi:10.1590/1980-549720230009.supl.1

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Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia

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Original Article • Rev. bras. Epidemiol. 26 (Suppl 1) • 2023 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720230009.supl.1 copy

Temporal trends of morbidities, and risk and protective factors for noncommunicable diseases in elderly residents in Brazilian capitals

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

Objective:

To analyze the temporal trends of prevalence of morbidities, risk and protection factors for noncommunicable diseases in elderly residents in Brazilian capitals between 2006 and 2021.

Methods:

A time series study with data from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Inquiry. The variables analyzed were: high blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, overweight, obesity, consumption of alcoholic beverages, soft drinks, fruits and vegetables, and the practice of physical activity. Prais-Winsten regression and Interrupted Time Series from 2006 to 2014 and 2015 to 2021 were used.

Results:

From 2006 to 2021, for the total elderly population, there was an increase in diabetes (19.2 to 28.4%), alcohol consumption (2.5 to 3.2%), overweight (52.4 to 60.7%) and obesity (16.8 to 21.8%), and a reduction in the prevalence of smokers (9.4 to 7.4%) and in soft drink consumption (17 to 8.7%). By the interrupted series, between 2015 and 2021, there was stability in the prevalence of diabetes, female smokers, overweight among men, obesity in the total and male population, and soft drink consumption.

Conclusion:

Over the years, there have been changes and worsening in the indicators analyzed, such as an increase in diabetes, alcohol consumption, overweight, and obesity, which reinforces the importance of continuous monitoring and sustainability programs to promote the health, especially in the context of economic crisis, austerity, and COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords:
Health of the elderly; Noncommunicable diseases; Risk factors; Protective factors

		2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	APC (95%CI)
Self-reported high blood pressure
	T	57.7	57.2	61.7	63.5	60.0	59.7	59.2	60.4	59.9	0.3 (−0.8;1.5)
	M	51.2	49.8	53.1	58.8	53.3	52.6	49.2	53.0	53.4	0.2 (−1.6;2.0)
	F	62.0	62.7	67.0	66.5	64.2	64.3	65.6	65.0	64.5	0.3 (−0.5;1.2)
Self-reported diabetes
	T^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	19.2	18.6	21.2	22.5	21.9	21.4	23.0	22.1	24.4	2.7 (1.3;4.1)
	M^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	17.5	18.4	20.6	23.4	20.1	22.5	23.1	20.3	24.7	3.0 (0.9;5.2)
	F^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	20.4	18.8	21.6	21.9	23.0	20.7	22.9	23.3	24.3	2.4 (1.3;3.5)
Smokers
	T^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	9.4	8.5	9.3	8.4	8.1	9.0	7.6	6.9	8.1	−2.8 (−4.1;−1.4)
	M^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	13.2	12.2	13.8	12.2	10.3	14.0	11.1	10.1	10.4	−3.0 (-5.1;−0.9)
	F^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	6.9	5.7	6.5	6.0	6.7	5.8	5.4	4.9	6.5	−2.2 (−4.3;−0.1)
Abusive consumption of alcoholic beverages
	T	2.5	2.7	3.3	4.1	4.4	4.5	5.0	4.0	3.8	5.7 (−1.9;13.8)
	M	4.9	5.0	6.3	7.9	8.5	8.2	9.2	7.8	6.7	4.6 (-3.3;13.2)
	F	0.9	1.0	1.5	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.3	1.5	1.7	8.7 (−0.3;18.4)
Overweight
	T^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	52.4	50.8	53.6	54.2	56.6	54.3	58.5	56.3	57.8	1.5 (1.1;2.0)
	M^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	50.6	50.3	51.5	55.3	58.1	51.3	57.4	54.6	57.3	1.5 (0.4;2.5)
	F^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	53.6	51.3	54.9	53.5	55.6	56.4	59.1	57.4	58.3	1.6 (1.2; 2.0)
Obesity
	T^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	16.8	14.9	17.4	17.8	19.4	17.7	19	20.2	19.8	3.2 (2.0;4.3)
	M^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	10.8	11.5	11.7	13.3	16.4	12.1	12.6	16.5	16.4	4.8 (1.5;8.2)
	F^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	20.8	17.5	21.0	20.7	21.3	21.4	23.0	22.6	22.1	2.5 (1.5;3.5)
Soft drink consumption
	T		17	11.2	13	12.9	14.1	12.1	11.4	10.1	−3.7 (-7.2;−0.1)
	M^* * p≤0.05. T: total; M: male; F: female; APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.		20.8	13.0	15.2	16.2	17.0	12.6	13.9	10.5	−4.9 (-9.1;−0.5)
	F		14.2	10.1	11.6	10.8	12.1	11.8	9.9	9.8	−2.5 (-5.6;0.6)
Recommended consumption of fruits and vegetables
	T			26.3	25.0	22.2	29.9	28.4	26.8	27.8	2.2 (−1.5;6.0)
	M			22.7	19.8	16.8	27.4	25.5	22.7	22.7	2.8 (−4.1;10.2)
	F			28.5	28.3	25.6	31.6	30.2	29.4	31.4	2.0 (−0.2;4.3)
Leisure-time physical activity
	T				22.6	20.7	22.5	23.6	22.3	22.8	1.2 (−0.9;3.3)
	M				27.1	23.8	27.4	31.1	26.2	24.7	−0.1 (−6.1;6.4)
	F				19.7	19.0	19.3	18.9	19.9	21.4	1.7 (−0.7;4.1)

		2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	APC (95%CI)
Self-reported high blood pressure
	Total	59.6	64.2	60.9	60.9	59.3	60.6	61.0	−0.5 (−1.3;0.4)
	Male	56.1	57.9	55.8	56.7	55.5	55.9	57.1	−0.3 (−0.7;0.1)
	Female	61.9	67.8	64.2	63.6	61.6	63.9	63.7	−0.5 (−1.6;0.7)
Self-reported diabetes
	Total	22.6	27.2	23.5	23.1	23.0	25.2	28.4	1.8 (−2.3;5.9)
	Male	24.2	25.9	23.0	24.6	24.6	24.6	28.7	1.3 (−0.9;3.6)
	Female	21.5	28.0	23.9	22.2	22.0	25.6	28.1	1.9 (-3.3;7.4)
Smokers
	Total^* * p≤0.05. APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	8.2	7.7	7.3	6.1	7.8	5.9	7.4	−3.4 (-5.5;−1.2)
	Male^* * p≤0.05. APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	10.1	10.6	9.6	7.2	11.2	7.4	7.3	−5.4 (-9.5;−1.1)
	Female	6.9	6.0	5.8	5.4	5.7	4.8	7.5	−2.8 (-5.8;0.2)
Abusive consumption of alcoholic beverages
	Total	3.7	4.6	3	4.1	4.1	5.7	5.8	7.7 (−0.2;16.2)
	Male	6.4	8.5	5.6	7.2	7.4	8.1	9.5	4.6 (−0.8;10.2)
	Female	2.0	2.3	1.4	2.0	2.1	4.0	3.3	11.1 (−2.1;26.0)
Overweight
	Total^* * p≤0.05. APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	57.3	57.7	59.6	60.6	59.8	60.9	60.7	1.0 (0.4;1.6)
	Male	57.5	55.2	56.8	61.1	60.6	58.5	60.7	1.3(−0.1;2.6)
	Female^* * p≤0.05. APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	57.2	59.1	61.4	60.2	59.3	62.6	60.7	0.9 (0.1;1.8)
Obesity
	Total	19.4	20.3	20.3	21.5	20.9	20.2	21.8	1.2 (−0.04;2.4)
	Male	15.5	15.1	15.4	18.3	18.0	15.0	16.8	1.4 (−2.6;5.5)
	Female^* * p≤0.05. APC: annual percent change; 95%CI: 95% confidence intervals.	21.9	23.4	23.4	23.6	22.7	23.7	25.3	1.4 (0.03;2.9)
Soft drink consumption
	Total	9.4	9.9	7.8	7.0	8.4	10	8.7	−0.7 (-7.7;7.0)
	Male	11.6	9.7	10.7	8.0	10.8	12.2	11.2	1.5 (−4.7;8.1)
	Female	7.9	8.6	6.0	6.3	6.9	8.5	7.1	−0.9 (-7.8;6.6)
Recommended consumption of fruits and vegetables
	Total	27.3	28.2	26.9	25.1	26.6	27.7	25.0	−1.0 (−2.7;0.6)
	Male	22.6	21.9	20.8	19.5	21.6	23.1	20.4	−0.6 (-3.5;2.4)
	Female	30.4	32.0	30.8	28.7	29.7	30.8	28.3	−1.2 (−2.5;0.2)
Leisure-time physical activity
	Total	23.5	22.3	23.3	24.4	24.4	23.9	21.8	−0.4 (-3.0;2.2)
	Male	28.32	29.45	28.21	30.74	28.8	30.0	26.1	−0.2 (−1.5;1.0)
	Female	20.39	18.03	20.13	20.3	21.6	19.8	18.8	0.2 (−2.6;3.0)

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[1] Corresponding author: Alanna Gomes da Silva. Av. Prof. Alfredo Balena, 190, Santa Efigênia, CEP: 30130-100, Belo Horizonte (MG), Brasil.