Econometric Estimation of Labor Productivity in the Brazilian Manufacturing Sector in the 2000s: a Kaldorian Approach

Nassif, André; Feijó, Carmem; Araujo, Eliane

doi:10.20396/rbi.v17i1.8650856

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Artigo • Rev. Bras. Inov. 17 (01) • Jan-Jun 2018 • https://doi.org/10.20396/rbi.v17i1.8650856 copy

Econometric Estimation of Labor Productivity in the Brazilian Manufacturing Sector in the 2000s: a Kaldorian Approach^* * The authors thank Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro and Guilherme Magacho, as well as the editor and two anonymous referees of Revista de Inovação, for their helpful comments and suggestions. The usual caveats apply.

Estimativa econométrica da produtividade do trabalho na indústria manufatureira brasileira nos anos 2000: uma abordagem kaldoriana

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

In the 2000-2008 period, which covers the analysis of this paper, while the average real GDP growth in Brazil was 3.7 percent per year, labor productivity in the manufacturing industry had a negative variation of 1.0 percent per year. In Brazil, there has been a “cliché” evaluation ofthe relatively low economic growth rates in the period as being the result of low labor productivity growth in the last few decades. However, according to the so-called Kaldor-Verdoorn law, the reverse could also be true: low growth rates of labor productivity in Brazil could be an effect of low growth rates of the real GDP. Based on Kaldorian assumptions, we regressed the change in labor productivity of 21 Brazilian manufacturing industries, covering the 2000-2008 period, on three main variables: the real GDP (which captures the Kaldor-Verdoorn law), gross investment to value added ratio, and technological innovation. Our results confirmed the validity of the Kaldor-Verdoorn law, as the real GDP growth was the most significant variable to explain the behavior of labor productivity in the manufacturing industries in Brazil in the 2000s, followed by the gross investment rate.

Keywords:
Labor Productivity; Manufacturing; Brazil

Dependent variable: Labor productivity growth (dlogr _it)	The static model $r_{i t} = a + α y_{t} + β {(I / V A)}_{i t} + φ I n n o v_{i (t - n)} + ε_{i t}$		The dynamic model $\begin{matrix} r_{i t} = r_{i (t - 1)} + a + α y_{t} + β {(I / V A)}_{i t} + φ I n n o v_{i (t - n)} + ε_{i t} \end{matrix}$
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Fixed effects	Random effects
The constant a	-0.18*** (-3.18)	-0.11* (-2.91)	-0.16** -(2.67)
Real GDP growth rate (dlogy _t )	2.34*** (3.13)	2.22*** (3.17)	2.12** (2.92)
Growth of the gross investment rate (dlog(I/VA) _it )	0.35 (1.40)	0.30 (1.32)	0.41* (1.72)
R&D expenditures to total net revenues ratio (logInnov _i(t-2) )	0.09** (2.17)	0.03* (1.65)	0.07 (1.50)
Lagged labor productivity (r_i(t-1))	--	--	-0.55*** (-7.31)
	R-sq: Within = 0.1233 Between = 0.0128 Overall = 0.0772 F(3,117)= 5.49 Prob > F= 0.0015	R-sq: Within = 0.1090 Between = 0.0197 Overall = 0.0980 Wald chi2(3) = 14.78 Prob > Chi2 = 0.0020	Wald Chi2(4)= 82.27 Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000
Number of observations = 140 Number of groups = 20	Observations per group: min = 7

Science, engineering and knowledge-based
Metal products
Non electrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Motor vehicles
Scientific instruments
Chemicals
Natural resource-based
Food and beverage
Tobacco
Wood products
Paper and cellulose
Petroleum refining and oil and carbon products
Glass and other non-metallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Non ferrous metals
Labor intensive
Textil
Clothing
Leather manufactures and footwear
Furniture, pottery and other manufactured products
Paper printing
Other chemicals
Rubber products and plastic products

Coefficients
	(b)	(B)	(b-B)	Sqrt (diag(V_b-V_B))
	Fixed		Difference	S.E.
D.i_va	0.3564957	0.3041109	0.0523848	0.1068432
D.lny	2.343518	2.226511	0.1170075	0.2586765
L2.lninnov	0.0943601	0.0326415	0.0617185	0.036255

Universidade Estadual de Campinas Rua: Carlos Gomes, 250. Bairro Cidade Universitária, Cep: 13083-855 , Campinas - SP / Brasil , Tel: +55 (19) 3521-5176 - Campinas - SP - Brazil
E-mail: rbi@unicamp.br

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[1] *
The authors thank Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro and Guilherme Magacho, as well as the editor and two anonymous referees of Revista de Inovação, for their helpful comments and suggestions. The usual caveats apply.