Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Pluviometric Data from the Monitoring Stations Near the Concórida River Catchment, Lontras City (Santa Catarina - Southern Brazil) Aiming Their Integration in the Climate Change Context

Piazza, Gustavo Antonio; Torres, Edson; Moser, Paolo; Gotardo, Rafael; Kaufmann, Vander; Pinheiro, Adilson

doi:10.1590/0102-7786312314b20150087

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Artigo • Rev. bras. meteorol. 31 (4 suppl 1) • Dec 2016 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786312314b20150087 copy

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Pluviometric Data from the Monitoring Stations Near the Concórida River Catchment, Lontras City (Santa Catarina - Southern Brazil) Aiming Their Integration in the Climate Change Context

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly evident in the current scenario, causing changes in physical, chemical and biological processes. The precipitation increase, for example, is a consequence of the climate change. This study aimed to analyze the trend behavior of monthly and annual data, as well the maximum values, from the surrounding stations of the Concordia River catchment in Lontras municipality, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. Normality tests and three trends analysis were performed; trend line analysis, Mann-Kendall test and technique of DFA (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), besides a correlation test with global index responsible for the climate. Positive trends were found for means, maximums and annual for analyzed stations by both methods (16 of 20) with significance for 11 stations. Maximum data also showed an increase. However, considering the simplified statistical methods used in this work no correlation was found towards the global index.

Keywords:
time series; pluviometric; Mann-Kendall test; fractal analysis

Estações	Código ANA	Início dos dados	Término dos dados	Anos completos
Ilhota Jusante	2648001	01/09/1927	01/07/2014	86
Ibirama	2749001	01/01/1934	01/09/2014	80
Apiúna- Régua Nova	2749000	01/01/1934	01/09/2014	80
Pouso Redondo	2749006	01/01/1941	01/08/2014	73
Ituporanga	2749002	01/01/1941	01/08/2014	73
Brusque (PCD)	2748000	01/01/1941	01/07/2014	73
Garcia Blumenau	2649009	01/01/1941	01/07/2014	73
Nova Bremen	2749005	01/01/1941	01/09/2014	73
Indaial	2649005	01/01/1941	01/09/2014	73
Blumenau (PCD)	2649007	01/03/1944	01/07/2014	70
Major Gercino	2748001	01/10/1945	01/07/2014	68
Nova Trento	2748002	01/10/1945	01/07/2014	68
Trombudo Central	2749013	01/11/1945	01/08/2014	68
Fazenda Boa Esperança	2749015	01/11/1955	01/07/2014	58
Neisse Central	2749016	01/04/1956	01/09/2014	58
Vidal Ramos	2749033	01/04/1976	01/08/2014	38
Witmarsun	2649053	01/07/1976	01/09/2014	38
Rio do Sul - Novo	2749039	01/12/1978	01/08/2014	35
Agrolândia	2749041	01/01/1983	01/08/2014	31
Salseiro	2749046	01/01/1988	01/08/2014	26

Estações	Análise da equação linear da linha de tendência				Mann-Kendall
Estações	Mensal	R²	Anual	R²	Z	Signif.
Ilhota Jusante	y = 0,0073x + 123,44	0,0007	y = 1,4171x + 1451,1	0,0108	0,21
Ibirama	y = 0,0003x + 122,4	1E-06	y = 0,1118x + 1463,5	8E-05	0,39
Apiúna - Régua	y = 0,0405x + 102,54	0,0192	y = 6,0194x + 1180,4	0,1406	3,77	^(*) (*) α = 0,001; e
Pouso Redondo	y = 0,0441x + 97,268	0,0229	y = 6,4752x + 1116,2	0,2025	4,24	^(*) (*) α = 0,001; e
Ituporanga	y = 0,0222x + 113,3	0,0057	y = 3,3823x + 1328,4	0,0437	2,00	^() ()** α = 0,05;
Brusque (PCD)	y = 0,004x + 137,14	0,0002	y = 1,8297x + 1596	0,0166	1,26
Garcia Blumenau	y = 0,0446x + 116,53	0,0154	y = 6,6056x + 1348,3	0,1424	2,95	^() () α = 0,01,
Nova Bremen	y = 0,0462x + 87,232	0,0277	y = 6,2445x + 1014,8	0,173	3,78	^(*) (*) α = 0,001; e
Indaial	y = 0,0279x + 110,55	0,0087	y = 4,0017x + 1296	0,0634	1,75	(+)
Blumenau (PCD)	y = 0,0493x + 105,92	0,0194	y = 5,9766x + 1285,3	0,133	2,55	^() ()** α = 0,05;
Major Gercino	y = 0,0008x + 109,36	0,0047	y = 2,5963x + 1429,6	0,025	1,00
Nova Trento	y = −0,0004x + 117,02	1E-06	y = 2,5902x + 1285,5	0,014	0,80
Trombudo Central	y = 0,0314x + 102,96	0,0109	y = 4,6085x + 1198,8	0,1056	2,67	^() () α = 0,01,
Faz. Boa Esperança	y = 0,0485x + 106,43	0,014	y = 5,9511x + 1283,5	0,0862	2,29	^() ()** α = 0,05;
Neisse Central	y = 0,0349x + 106,74	0,0088	y = 4,4863x + 1277,3	0,0484	1,91	⁽⁺⁾ (+) α = 0,1.
Vidal Ramos	y = −0,0139x + 130,33	0,0007	y = −3,4272x + 1680,9	0,0218	-0,55
Witmarsun	y = 0,0031x + 126,5	3E-05	y = −4,4957x + 1843,9	0,0189	-0,65
Rio do Sul - Novo	y = −0,0191x + 147,55	0,001	y = −3,4513x + 1837,3	0,0131	0,23
Agrolândia	y = 0,0043x + 135,18	3E-05	y = 0,0194x + 1655,1	3E-07	0,31
Salseiro	y = 0,0321x + 96,676	0,0018	y = −0,3295x + 1546,2	0,0001	0,04

Estações	DFA – Coeficiente de Hurst
Estações	Mensal	Anual
Ilhota Jusante	0.05611783	0.1077314
Ibirama	0.0482019	0.161392
Apiúna - Régua	0.05268529	0.0594436
Pouso Redondo	0.05025115	0.04652463
Ituporanga	0.06301545	0.09651959
Brusque (PCD)	0.07856591	0.1044598
Garcia Blumenau	0.06274969	0.1422798
Nova Bremen	0.04902718	0.07013102
Indaial	0.05861227	0.1767375
Blumenau (PCD)	0.06831937	0.08626054
Major Gercino	0.04833629	0.04746245
Nova Trento	0.06097432	0.15796
Trombudo Central	0.05190779	0.06024523
Faz. Boa Esperança	0.07485366	0.08294891
Neisse Central	0.06648539	0.08971992
Vidal Ramos	0.04963165	0.08553396
Witmarsun	0.06047907	0.05375126
Rio do Sul - Novo	0.05836855	0.07799342
Agrolândia	0.06218906	0.1263248
Salseiro	0.05186145	0.02015171

Nome estação	Mensais x El Niño/La Niña		Anuais x Temp. global
	r	p-value	r	p-value
Ilhota Jusante	-0,0063	0,90477	0,18905	0,3763
Ibirama	0,042389	0,4207	0,22712	0,28584
Apiuna - Régua	0,094498	0,07214	0,20199	0,34388
Pouso Redondo	0,027671	0,59925	0,32765	0,11806
Ituporanga	0,14348	0,006173	0,042844	0,84244
Brusque (PCD)	0,016119	0,75956	-0,01996	0,92624
Garcia Blumenau	0,035443	0,50084	0,11623	0,58863
Nova Bremen	0,065179	0,2154	0,17208	0,42137
Indaial	0,095405	0,069435	0,23928	0,26013
Blumenau (PCD)	0,055258	0,29373	0,013524	0,94999
Major Gercino	0,023376	0,65711	-0,2474	0,2438
Nova Trento	0,091827	0,080603	0,26465	0,21139
Trombudo Central	0,034222	0,51572	0,38399	0,063956
Faz. Boa Esperança	0,026338	0,61696	0,52284	0,008757
Neisse Central	0,049176	0,35017	0,02997	0,88944

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[1] Autor de correspondência: Gustavo Antonio Piazza, e-mail: gustavoapiazza@gmail.com.