Development of a tool for hydroeletric reservoir operation with multiple uses considering effects of climate changes. Case study of Furnas HPP

Elaboração de uma ferramenta para operação de reservatórios hidrelétricos com usos múltiplos considerando efeitos de mudanças climáticas: Estudo de caso da UHE de Furnas

ABSTRACT

The possible impact of climate change on the multiple uses that involve the hydro power plant of Furnas was one of the objectives of this study by proposing a methodological approach to mitigate these conflicts. The first stage of the study was to perform a time trend analysis oh hydrologic variables being identified significant increasing trends in some rain gauges not reflected in streamflow data in the study basin. For representation of the future climate the hydrological model (MGB-IPH) was used inputted by the global model HadCM3 and regional Eta model through the A1B scenario of the IPCC. If the climate changes scenarios are verified, the reservoir can be quickly dumped, however the improvement of a methodology that considers the determination of the length and transgression frequency of levels, conflicts over water use can be minimized without damage to power generation.

Keywords:
Reservoirs; MGB-IPH; Nonparametric test; Furnas