Modeling and forecasting international tourism demand in Puno-Peru

Modelagem e previsão da procura por turismo internacional em Puno-Peru

Abstract

The tourism industry in Peru generates about 1.1 million jobs and contributes 3.3% of GDP, which makes it one of its main economic activities, so tourism is no longer just a commercial activity and transforms into a tool for the development of the Peruvian population especially in regions with high poverty rate and with numerous tourist attractions as it is the case of the Puno region with a poverty rate of 24.2% that is located in the south of the country and that has numerous tourist attractions of natural, historical, cultural, and gastronomic type. The objective of this research is to model and forecast the demand of international tourists visiting Puno using the ARIMA methodology of Box-Jenkins, for this the study considers monthly arrival information of foreign tourists between the years 2003 to 2017. Finally, using the statistics MAPE, Z, r, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion (SC) was identified to the SARIMA (6, 1, 24)(1, 0, 1)12 model as the most efficient for modeling and forecasting the demand for international tourism in the Puno region.

Keywords:
Seasonality; Titicaca lake; Peru; ARIMA; Culture