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Exchange rate imbalances and the economic fundamentals: an analysis of Real Plan

This article analyzes the evaluation of the main Brazilian economics fundamentals during the period of fixed exchange rate regime in Real Plan. The paper begins with a survey regarding to factors that caused the foreign currency instability in this country in 90's. The analyze show that the main factors were the unbalanced economic fundamentals, specially the fundamentals regarding to external and fiscal accounts. Given this condition, these fundamentals were analyzed. The results analyzed based on data set and indicators of fundamentals show a strong deterioration of variables associate to external accounts and fiscal performance, confirming the results present by literature. In this context, we conclude that there was a vicious circle among a strict foreign currency management, deterioration of fundamentals and foreign currency instability.

management of exchange rate; Real Plan; exchange unbalanced; economic fundamentals


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