O Brasil foi um dos países emergentes que enfrentou fortes pressões de apreciação cambial entre o 2º trimestre de 2009 e julho de 2011. É sob este contexto que pode ser entendida a aplicação da Regulação da Conta Capital (CAR) depois de 2009, que foi complementada com outro tipo de regulação, a Regulação dos Derivativos Cambiais (FXDR). Este trabalho mostra que, somente quando o governo brasileiro adotou estes dois tipos de regulação simultaneamente, houve um aumento da eficácia das políticas em deter essas pressões. A experiência brasileira também revela que não é possível estabelecer uma hierarquia entre os instrumentos temporários para gerenciar fluxos de capital e medidas prudenciais permanentes, tal como defende a abordagem atual do FMI.

PALAVRAS-CHAVE:
liberalização da conta de capital; controles de capitais; economia brasileira

Autoria

DANIELA MAGALHÃES PRATES

Professor of Economics da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) and CNPq researcher. Email: prates@unicamp.br;Universidade Estadual de CampinasBrazilBrazilProfessor of Economics da Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) and CNPq researcher. Email: prates@unicamp.br;

LUIZ FERNANDO DE PAULA

Professor of Economics da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) and CNPq researcher. Email: luizfpaula@terra.com.br.Universidade do Estado do Rio de JaneiroBrazilBrazilProfessor of Economics da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ) and CNPq researcher. Email: luizfpaula@terra.com.br.

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Figuras | Tabelas

Figuras (6)
Tabelas (1)

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Figure 1
Interest rate differential (%), 2010-2013

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Figure 2
Financial account net balance (USD million), 1994-01/2014-01

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Figure 3
BCB intervention in the foreign exchange market (US$ billion), 1994 -2013

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Figure 4
Foreign exchange reserves (US$ billion), 2000-2013

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Figure 5
Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2002-2013 (2005 = 100)

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Figure 6
BRL/USD exchange rate, Jan.2009-December 2013

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Table 1
Brazil: Capital account regulation (capital controls - CC and prudential financial regulation - PR) and FX derivatives regulation (FXDR) - 2009/2013

Figure 1 Interest rate differential (%), 2010-2013

Source: Authors’ elaboration with data from Central Bank of Brazil.

Figure 2 Financial account net balance (USD million), 1994-01/2014-01

Source: MF (2014) - International Financial Statistics.

Figure 3 BCB intervention in the foreign exchange market (US$ billion), 1994 -2013

Source: Authors’ elaboration with data from Central Bank of Brazil.Note: (+) purchase (-) selling

Figure 4 Foreign exchange reserves (US$ billion), 2000-2013

Source: IMF (2014)

Figure 5 Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2002-2013 (2005 = 100)

Source: ECLAC - Data Bases and Statistical Publications.Note: Annual averages. A country’s overall real effective exchange rate index is calculated by weighting its real bilateral exchange rate indices with each of its trading partners by each partner’s share in the country’s total trade flows in terms of exports and imports. A currency depreciates in real effective terms when this index rises and appreciates when it falls.

Figure 6 BRL/USD exchange rate, Jan.2009-December 2013

Source: Authors’ elaboration with data from Central Bank of Brazil.

Table 1 Brazil: Capital account regulation (capital controls - CC and prudential financial regulation - PR) and FX derivatives regulation (FXDR) - 2009/2013

Data	Number and Kind	Measure	Agents
Oct./2009	10 CC	The Ministry of Finance implemented a 2% financial transaction tax (IOF) on non-resident equity and fixed income portfolio inflows.	Non-resident investors
Oct./2010	20 and 3 CC	(i) IOF increased from 2 to 4 percent for fixed income portfolio investments and equity funds. (ii) IOF increased to 6 percent for fixed income investments (iii) Limitations were also introduced on the ability of foreign investors to shift investment from equity to fixed income investment	Non-resident investors
Oct./2010	10 and 20 FXDR	(i) IOF on margin requirements on FX derivatives transactions increased from 0.38 percent to 6 per cent (ii) Loopholes for IOF on margin requirements were closed: foreign investors in the futures markets were no longer allowed to meet their margin requirements via locally borrowed securities or guarantees from local banks, which allowed them to avoid payment of the tax	Resident banks, institutional investors and companies and non-residents investors
Jan./2011	10 PR	Non-interest reserve requirement equivalent to 60 percent of bank´s short dollar positions in the FX spot market that exceed US$ 3 billion or their capital base, whichever is smaller (to be implemented over 90 days)	Resident banks
Mar./2011	40 CC	Increased to 6 percent the IOF on new foreign loans (banking loans and securities issued abroad) with maturities of up a year. Companies and banks previously only paid a 5.38 percent IOF on loans up to 90 days.	Resident banks and companies
April/2011	50 CC	(i) 6 percent IOF extended for the renewal of foreign loans with maturities of up a year (ii) 6 percent IOF extended for both new and renewed foreign loans with maturities of up to 2 years	Resident banks and companies
July/2011	20 PR	The Non-interest reserve requirement became mandatory for amounts over USD 1 billion or their capital base (whichever is smaller).	Resident banks
July/2011	30 FXDR	Excessive long positions on BRL off all agents pay a financial tax of 1 percent. This tax can be increased up to 25 per cent	Resident banks, institutional investors and companies and non-residents investors
Dec/2011	60 CC	IOF on equity and fixed income (linked with infrastructure projects) portfolio inflows reduced to 0%.	Non-resident investors
Mar./2012	70 CC	(i) 6 percent IOF extended for both new and renewed foreign loans with maturities of up to 3 years (ii)Export advanced payment transactions with maturities of more than a year prohibited (iii) 6 percent IOF extended for both new and renewed foreign loans with maturities of up to 5 years	Resident banks and companies
Mar./2012	40 FXDR	Exporters hedge operations (up to 1,2 times the exports of the previous year) exempted from the IOF.	Resident exporters
June/2012	80 CC	6 percent IOF only for new and renewed foreign loans with maturities of up to 2 years (namely, the changes adopted in March were reversed)	Resident banks and companies
Dec./2012	90 CC	(i) 6 percent IOF for foreign loans with maturities of up to 1 year (ii)Export advanced payment transactions maturity extended from 1 for 5 years.	Resident banks and companies
Jun./2013	100 CC	IOF on fixed income portfolio inflows reduced to 0 percent.	Non-resident investors
Jun./2013	50 FXDR	IOF of 1 percent on excessive long net positions of FX derivatives of all agents reduced to 0 percent.	Resident banks, institutional investors and companies and non-residents investors
Jul./2013	30 PR	Non-interest reserve requirement on bank´s short dollar positions in the FX spot market reduced from 60 percent to 0 percent	Resident banks

Source: Authors’ elaboration based on Central Bank of Brazil’s and Minister of Finance´s websites.

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[TFN1] Source: Authors’ elaboration based on Central Bank of Brazil’s and Minister of Finance´s websites.