The Effect of the Candidates’ Age on Electoral Turnout Rate. The case of Chile

We used the 2013 Chilean legislative elections as a case-study. Based on a multivariate linear regression model, we measure the effect of the candidates age on the electoral turnout.

Results:

We conclude that presence of young candidates (aged 30 or younger) increase electoral turnout from 18 to 29 voters , being irrelevant in voters aged from 30 to 59, and discouraging participation in voters aged 60 or older.

Discussion:

We suggest this effect is not homogeneous according to the levels of communal poverty. The presence of young candidates increases electoral turnout only in communes with poverty levels equal to or below average.

Keywords:
electoral turnout; age; candidates; class-biased; elections; Chile

Variable	Observaciones	Media	D.S.	Mín	Máx
% Participación 2013	345	49.4	5.3	12.9	67.7
% Participación 2013	345	43.2	9.5	26.8	80
% participación 18-19	345	29.9	8.5	0	70.7
% participación 20-29	345	33.6	7.6	6.5	66.7
% participación 30-59	345	52.1	5.5	14	68.7
% participación 60 y más	345	61.4	6.4	5	76
Candidato joven = 1/No joven = 0	345	0.51	0.5	0	1
% de candidatos jóvenes	345	7.7	8.4	0	37.5
Número de candidatos	345	8.2	1.7	4	11
Porcentaje de candidatas (mujeres)	345	20.4	12.4	0	50
Incumbente = 1/No incumbente = 0	345	1.48	0.7	0	1
% Pobres	345	15.1	6.9	0	44.6
% Ruralidad	345	13.1	19.9	0	100
RM = 1/Regiones = 0	345	0.15	0.36	0	1

Año	Población mayor de 18 años (PEV)	Inscritos	Votantes	Participación
1989	8499792	7557537	7158646	84.2
1993	9052632	8085439	7385016	81.6
1997	9773590	8069624	7046361	72.1
2001	10506435	8075446	7034292	66.9
2005	11344218	8220897	7207351	63.5
2009	12268311	8285186	7179762	58.5
2013	13573143	13573143	6698524	49.4

	Observaciones	Promedio	Desviación estándar	Mínimo	Máximo
Ausencia de candidato joven	170	-8.6	6.0	-52.4	6.3
Presencia de candidato joven	175	-6.6	7.7	-57.5	24.2
Total	345	-7.5	7.1	-57.5	24.2

Tipo	Nombre	Grupos etáreos
Tipo	Nombre	18-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50-59	60-69	70-79	80+	Total
Comunas con mayor nivel de ingresos	Las Condes	61	58.5	51.5	56.5	65.5	69.8	70.6	48.2	59.6
	Vitacura	70.7	66.7	61	63.7	69.3	74.4	75.6	56.3	66.8
	Lo Barnechea	63	57.1	49.1	59.9	68.9	73.5	71.1	47	60.1
Comunas con menor nivel de ingresos (RM)	La Pintana	16.3	19.9	25.2	51.2	63.3	70.4	66.1	39.3	39.7
	La Granja	24.8	29.1	32.2	50.6	61.4	67.5	62.6	35.6	45.5
	San Ramón	22.2	28.3	34.7	56.6	63.6	72.3	68.9	39.6	49.8
Comunas con mayor número de electores	Puente Alto	24.4	30	31.5	51	63.8	68.7	63.8	36	42.8
	Maipú	35.1	37.7	38.5	57	67.1	71.9	67.3	39.5	50.3
	La Florida	35.8	39.8	40.9	55.3	65.2	71.9	66.8	39.6	52.3
Comunas rurales con alta participación	Pencahue	30.1	42.7	55.5	69.5	76.3	78.7	71.9	32.7	62.3
	Pelluhue	35.1	43.1	58	64.8	75	79.3	73.8	45.6	62.2
	Treguaco	28.3	43.4	56.2	69.3	77.9	79.5	65.2	30.4	61.7

Pobreza	Candidato joven	18-19	20-29	30-59	60 y más
< Promedio	Sí	38.2	37.1	50.7	59.6
≥ Promedio	Sí	28.7	32.1	51.4	61.4
< Promedio	No	29.3	33.1	52.9	63
≥ Promedio	No	27.4	30.7	54.4	62.5

Variable	18 a 19 años		20 a 29 años		30 a 59 años		60 años y más		Tasa de participación
Variable	Modelo 1	Modelo 2	Modelo 1	Modelo 2	Modelo 1	Modelo 2	Modelo 1	Modelo 2	Modelo 1	Modelo 2
% pobres	-0.352^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.531^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.355^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.552^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.0657	-0.0734^ p < 0.05,	-0.0279	0.0574	0.0164	-0.0748
	(0.0986)	(0.0652)	(0.0800)	(0.0529)	(0.0490)	(0.0314)	(0.0727)	(0.0465)	(0.0869)	(0.0572)
% ruralidad	-0.174^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.177^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.182^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.183^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.0700^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.0710^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.157^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.158^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.0613^ p < 0.05,	-0.0642^* ***** p < 0.01,
	(0.0272)	(0.0277)	(0.0221)	(0.0225)	(0.0135)	(0.0134)	(0.0201)	(0.0198)	(0.0240)	(0.0243)
% participación 2012	0.456^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.451^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.457^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.463^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.558^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.554^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.501^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.486^* ***** p < 0.01,	-0.00303	-0.0193
	(0.0594)	(0.0604)	(0.0482)	(0.0491)	(0.0295)	(0.0291)	(0.0438)	(0.0432)	(0.0524)	(0.0530)
Presencia de candidato joven	6.438^* ***** p < 0.01,		7.171^* ***** p < 0.01,		-0.547		-3.149^ p < 0.05,		3.953^ p < 0.05,
	(1.897)		(1.539)		(0.943)		(1.399)		(1.672)
Zona (1 = RM/ 0=Regiones)	0.710	0.506	2.673^* ***** p < 0.01,	2.433^* ***** p < 0.01,	1.951^* ***** p < 0.01,	2.050^* ***** p < 0.01,	2.622^* ***** p < 0.01,	2.734^* ***** p < 0.01,	4.727^* ***** p < 0.01,	4.526^* ***** p < 0.01,
	(1.061)	(1.075)	(0.861)	(0.873)	(0.527)	(0.518)	(0.783)	(0.768)	(0.935)	(0.944)
Presencia candidato joven^* * p < 0.1. %pobres	-0.250^ p < 0.05,		-0.268^* ***** p < 0.01,		-0.0229		0.111		-0.124
	(0.115)		(0.0929)		(0.0569)		(0.0845)		(0.101)
Número de incumbentes	2.120^* ***** p < 0.01,	2.191^* ***** p < 0.01,	1.086^ p < 0.05,	1.196^ p < 0.05,	0.642^ p < 0.05,	0.546^* * p < 0.1.	1.447^* ***** p < 0.01,	1.380^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.204	0.284
	(0.617)	(0.623)	(0.501)	(0.506)	(0.307)	(0.301)	(0.455)	(0.445)	(0.544)	(0.547)
Número de candidatos	0.409	0.320	-0.381	-0.451^* * p < 0.1.	-0.0320	-0.0798	0.566^ p < 0.05,	0.569^ p < 0.05,	-0.565^* * p < 0.1.	-0.607^ p < 0.05,
	(0.328)	(0.326)	(0.266)	(0.264)	(0.163)	(0.157)	(0.242)	(0.233)	(0.289)	(0.286)
Porcentaje de candidatas (mujeres)	-0.0108	-0.00664	-0.0147	-0.00393	0.00893	0.00577	0.0169	0.00502	0.127^* ***** p < 0.01,	0.122^* ***** p < 0.01,
		(0.0335)		(0.0272)		(0.0162)		(0.0239)		(0.0294)
Porcentaje de candidatos jóvenes		0.0790^* * p < 0.1.		0.150^* ***** p < 0.01,		-0.0688^* ***** p < 0.01,		-0.130^* ***** p < 0.01,		0.00830
	(0.0328)	(0.0433)	(0.0266)	(0.0351)	(0.0163)	(0.0209)	(0.0242)	(0.0309)	(0.0289)	(0.0380)
Constante	9.775^ p < 0.05,	14.18^* ***** p < 0.01,	20.70^* ***** p < 0.01,	24.19^* ***** p < 0.01,	28.89^* ***** p < 0.01,	29.87^* ***** p < 0.01,	35.06^* ***** p < 0.01,	35.04^* ***** p < 0.01,	-8.027^ p < 0.05,	-4.355
	(4.278)	(4.074)	(3.468)	(3.308)	(2.125)	(1.964)	(3.154)	(2.910)	(3.770)	(3.576)
Observaciones	345	345	345	345	345	345	345	345	345	345
R²	0.337	0.312	0.460	0.439	0.610	0.619	0.366	0.384	0.258	0.234

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[1] Mauricio Morales Quiroga (mmoralesq@utalca.cl). Académico de la Escuela de Ciencia Política y Administración Pública da Universidad de Talca.