Voting intention polls impact campaign revenues: the correlation of expectation of victory and campaign finance in Senate disputes

ABSTRACT

Introduction:

The article is on campaign financing in Brazil. Although there is no lack of evidence corroborating the association between campaign fund raising and electoral success, little is known about how much the intention to vote can affect the amount of resources gathered by the candidate. Our purpose is to investigate this subject.

Materials and Methods:

Empirical analyses was carried out based on data on electoral accountability from 134 candidates to Federal Senate in 2014 and on polling research made by IBOPE. As analytical tools, we use descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression.

Results:

The results attest to the positive impact of the voting intentions obtained in the pre-electoral polls and the support of the governor on the total amount raised. Being an incumbent, on its turn, was ineffective in explaining almost all the funding.

Discussion:

Due to the association found between the intention to vote and electoral financing, we warn of the need to consider the existence of endogeneity in the relationship between money and voting in the majority elections, since the variables are mutually affected. In addition, we suggest that the relationship between candidate viability and electoral funding reaffirms the idea that donors act strategically in defining which candidates to support. In this sense, donors choose viable candidacies that have relevant political support and thus offer less risk of defeat.

Keywords:
Campaign finance; Expectation of victory; Election polls; Senate; Brazilian general elections of 2014