Demographic challenges as a threat to Armenia’s economic security: regional perspectives and mitigation strategies

Desafios demográficos como ameaça à segurança econômica da Armênia: perspectivas regionais e estratégias de mitigação

Abstract

This study examines the impact of demographic threats on Armenia’s economic security in the context of regional cooperation. The methodology is based on a comprehensive analysis of demographic and economic indicators and the identification of interrelationships between them. It is established that Armenia’s economic security largely depends on employment levels and the size of the economically active population, whereas low birth rates, population ageing and unstable migration constitute the main risks. Demographic analysis shows gradual urbanisation, with an increase of 84,000 people in the urban population, fluctuations in total population and uneven distribution of the labour force, which reduces the efficiency of participation in regional economic projects. A comparative analysis of Armenia alongside Georgia and Azerbaijan indicates that, in contrast to Armenia, Georgia exhibits a comparatively stable demographic condition characterised by low emigration, whereas Azerbaijan showcases elevated birth rates and a favourable migration balance, thereby enhancing its labour resources. Correlation analysis identifies strong positive relationships between labour resources and economic indicators: the employed population correlates with gross domestic product (GDP) (r=0.98) and GDP per capita (r=0.99), while the economically active population correlates with GDP (r=0.87) and external trade turnover (r=0.80). The size of the labour force is directly linked to national debt in US dollars (r=0.83) and inversely linked to the debt burden as a percentage of gross domestic product (r=-0.60). Urbanisation has a positive impact on economic growth (r=0.72) and foreign trade (r=0.89), although it intensifies disparities between urban and rural areas.

Keywords:
employment; migration; urbanisation; financial stability; labour resources

Resumo

Este estudo examina o impacto das ameaças demográficas na segurança econômica da Armênia no contexto da cooperação regional. A metodologia baseia-se em uma análise abrangente de indicadores demográficos e econômicos e na identificação das inter-relações entre eles. Constatou-se que a segurança econômica da Armênia depende em grande parte dos níveis de emprego e do tamanho da população economicamente ativa, enquanto as baixas taxas de natalidade, o envelhecimento populacional e a migração instável constituem os principais riscos. A análise demográfica mostra uma urbanização gradual, com um aumento de 84.000 pessoas na população urbana, flutuações na população total e distribuição desigual da força de trabalho, o que reduz a eficiência da participação em projetos econômicos regionais. Uma análise comparativa da Armênia com a Geórgia e o Azerbaijão revela que a Geórgia mantém uma situação demográfica estável com baixa emigração, enquanto o Azerbaijão demonstra altas taxas de natalidade e um saldo migratório positivo, contribuindo para a expansão de seus recursos de mão de obra. A análise de correlação identifica fortes relações positivas entre os recursos de trabalho e os indicadores econômicos: a população empregada correlaciona-se com o produto interno bruto (PIB) (r=0,98) e o PIB per capita (r=0,99), enquanto a população economicamente ativa correlaciona-se com o PIB (r=0,87) e o volume de comércio exterior (r=0,80). O tamanho da força de trabalho está diretamente ligado à dívida nacional em dólares americanos (r=0,83) e inversamente ligado ao peso da dívida como percentagem do produto interno bruto (r=-0,60). A urbanização tem um impacto positivo no crescimento econômico (r=0,72) e no comércio exterior (r=0,89), embora intensifique as disparidades entre as áreas urbanas e rurais.

Palavras-chave:
emprego; migração; urbanização; estabilidade financeira; recursos de trabalho

1. Introduction

Economic security is one of the fundamental prerequisites for the stable development of any state, particularly in the complex geopolitical environment of the South Caucasus. For Armenia, which is closely interconnected with neighbouring countries and faces a range of political, military and socio-economic challenges, ensuring economic security has become particularly relevant. Among the many threats emerging in this context, demographic issues occupy a prominent position. High emigration rates, declining birth rates, population ageing and a shrinking labour force create systemic risks for the economy and the social sphere.

Regional cooperation presents Armenia with both new opportunities and new challenges. Economic integration within regional organisations can facilitate investment inflows, labour market development and enhanced competitiveness. However, demographic instability weakens the country’s capacity to fully exploit these opportunities, leading to imbalances and increasing vulnerability to external threats. Therefore, examining demographic challenges as a factor in Armenia’s economic security within the framework of regional cooperation is of significant importance. It makes it possible not only to diagnose existing problems but also to identify potential ways to address them, thereby ensuring sustainable development and strengthening the state’s position within the region.

The relationship between demographic trends and economic stability has repeatedly attracted the attention of scholars both in Armenia and abroad. For example, Galstyan (2025) analysed the decline in the working-age population, which had become a limiting factor for the development of key economic sectors. The author emphasised that the shortage of labour led to rising labour costs and a loss of competitiveness in regional trade. Paturyan and Gevorgyan (2020) focused on the issue of population ageing, noting that an increasing proportion of elderly people not only placed additional pressure on the social protection system but also posed risks to intergenerational solidarity, complicating the implementation of reforms. Atoyan, Karapetyan and Atoyan (2023), in turn, examined the scale of labour emigration, demonstrating that the continuous outflow of young and skilled professionals resulted in the structural degradation of the labour market and increased the country’s dependence on remittances from abroad.

Swianiewicz (2024), studying the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, showed that prolonged depopulation and labour outflow limited these states’ integration potential within the EU. The author concluded that, over time, the demographic crisis became not only a social issue but also a security concern. Sugözü and Talantbekova (2024) examined the Central Asian region and argued that the economic stability of the states in this area largely depended on remittances from migrants, while actual innovation potential weakened due to the loss of human capital.

Other authors have drawn attention to the broader consequences of demographic change. Kluge and Vogt (2020), analysing Germany’s experience, showed that even in a developed economy, population ageing led to a gradual redistribution of financial resources: investment in innovation declined in favour of social expenditure, creating potential risks to long-term competitiveness. According to Nijman and Wei (2020), the uneven distribution of the population across regions caused significant economic disparities, threatening internal stability and complicating integration initiatives.

Bai and Lei (2020), in a study focused on China, highlighted a combination of challenges: rapid population growth alongside ageing in certain segments. This resulted in dual pressure on the labour market – on the one hand, an excess of unskilled labour, and on the other, a shortage of young specialists in high-tech sectors. In turn, Parr (2023) emphasised that mass immigration only partially compensated for the losses caused by depopulation, as the integration of migrants into social and economic life required significant resources and generated new social risks.

Fingerman, Huo and Birditt (2020) proposed a broader approach, analysing global trends and emphasising that demographic changes affect not only the internal resilience of states but also their ability to act as reliable partners in regional alliances. The author concluded that countries with unstable demographic conditions are more likely to be vulnerable to external economic shocks and unable to fully realise the potential of cooperation.

Overall, the research indicates that demographic challenges are a universal factor determining the level of economic security in both stable and transitioning economies. A review of the literature shows that although the issue of economic security and its connection with demographic processes has been widely examined in Armenia and other countries, several aspects remain insufficiently addressed. First, there is a lack of comprehensive studies that simultaneously consider demographic trends and regional cooperation as interconnected factors. Second, there is limited analysis of how demographic risks specifically affect Armenia’s ability to take advantage of integration processes. Third, existing studies provide only limited scenario-based solutions that would link national demographic policy with regional economic strategy.

This study aims to analyse the main demographic challenges as a factor threatening Armenia’s economic security in the context of regional cooperation, in order to identify possible ways to overcome them. The objectives of the study are to determine the key demographic trends in Armenia and compare them with those of neighbouring countries, particularly Georgia and Azerbaijan, and to assess their impact on economic security; to examine how demographic factors influence the effectiveness of the country’s regional cooperation; and to formulate possible solutions aimed at minimising demographic risks and strengthening economic security.

2. Materials and methods

In this study, the materials and methods are aimed at a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between demographic processes and Armenia’s economic security in the context of regional cooperation during the period 2016-2024. This timeframe was selected due to the availability of complete statistical data and the intensification of regional economic initiatives during these years. The empirical analysis is based on official statistical data obtained from the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (2025), including annual demographic and economic indicators. The demographic indicators include total population, urban and rural population, birth and mortality rates, number of pensioners, labour resources, economically active population, employed population and net migration. The economic indicators include gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita, national debt in millions of US dollars and as a percentage of GDP, inflation rate, employment rate, and external trade turnover. Both GDP and GDP per capita were included intentionally, despite the fact that GDP per capita is derived from GDP and population. This allows for the assessment of overall economic scale (GDP) as well as individual economic well-being (GDP per capita), providing complementary perspectives on Armenia’s economic performance and its interaction with demographic factors. While some mechanical correlation is expected between these two indicators, their simultaneous analysis helps capture nuances in economic growth relative to population dynamics.

Methodologically, the study is based on a combined approach, integrating descriptive, comparative and correlation analysis. Descriptive analysis made it possible to trace the dynamics of key demographic and economic indicators over time. Comparative analysis was employed to compare Armenia’s demographic and economic trends with those of neighbouring South Caucasus countries – Georgia and Azerbaijan – in order to identify differences in population structure, labour resources, migration flows and economic stability. This enabled the assessment of specific risks and potential opportunities for integration into regional economic processes. The data were obtained from the National Statistics Office of Georgia (2025) and the State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (2025).

Correlation analysis was conducted to determine statistically significant relationships between demographic indicators and indicators of economic security. In particular, Pearson correlation coefficients were used to assess the strength and direction of correlations between demographic variables and economic security indicators. The correlation coefficient was calculated using the standard Formula 1:

$r=\frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n\left(X_i-\overline{X}\right)\left(Y_i-\overline{Y}\right)}{\sqrt{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_i^n{(X_i-\overline{X})}^2}\sqrt{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_i^n{(Y_i-\overline{Y})}^2}}$ (1)

where $X_i$ and $Y_i$ are the values of the two variables in observation, $\overline{X}$ and $\overline{Y}$ are the mean values of these variables, and n is the number of observations. This formula makes it possible to evaluate the strength and direction of the linear relationship between demographic indicators and economic security indicators. The value of r ranges from -1 to +1, where +1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, and 0 indicates no linear relationship. This approach made it possible to identify the main demographic factors that most significantly affect economic resilience and to determine potential areas of risk for public policy.

Trend analysis was additionally applied to illustrate changes in demographic structure and economic indicators over the study period. In particular, trends in urbanisation, changes in the size of the urban and rural populations, fluctuations in birth and mortality rates, as well as changes in the economically active and employed population were examined. The application of these methods enabled an assessment of the extent to which demographic processes influence macroeconomic indicators and helped identify the potential for labour resource development and the country’s participation in regional economic projects.

Thus, the comprehensive methodology combined quantitative analysis, comparative research and correlation assessment of relationships, which made it possible not only to describe the state of Armenia’s demographic and economic development, but also to identify the main factors of economic security, assess their impact on macroeconomic stability and develop practical recommendations for strengthening economic resilience in the long term.

3. Results

Economic security reflects a state’s ability to ensure the stability and resilience of its economic system in the face of both internal and external threats. Traditionally, economic security has been defined through the availability of strategic resources, financial stability and a country’s ability to sustain economic development regardless of changes in the global environment (Paulsen, 2025). There are several key approaches to interpreting this concept. The first is the resource-based approach, which focuses on access to natural, financial and human resources and their effective use to ensure economic resilience. The second is the institutional approach, which emphasises the role of state institutions, the effectiveness of economic policy, the stability of financial systems and the government’s ability to respond to crises. The third approach is the socio-economic approach, which views economic security through the lens of public welfare, employment levels, social justice and the labour market’s ability to adapt to change (Bown, 2024). Each of these approaches provides a different perspective on economic security; however, an integrated approach that incorporates the demographic dimension as one of the fundamental factors is necessary.

Demographic factors, including the size and structure of the population, age distribution, birth and death rates, and migration processes, are considered in modern economic security theory as critical elements that directly determine a state’s ability to maintain economic resilience. An increase in the working-age population, along with its educational and professional potential, contributes to the development of an innovative economy, higher labour productivity and stronger competitive positions in international markets (Tariq et al., 2024). Conversely, depopulation, mass emigration and population ageing create systemic risks: the tax base shrinks, social expenditure burdens rise, innovation potential declines, and the economy becomes more vulnerable to external shocks. Demographic sustainability is therefore not only a social but also an economic category that defines a state’s long-term capacity to ensure national security.

The relationship between demographic processes and integration within regional economic relations is of significant importance. Countries that actively engage in regional cooperation must take into account that a shortage of young and skilled labour limits the effective use of the advantages offered by open markets and joint economic programmes. For instance, high levels of emigration or uneven regional population distribution can significantly reduce investment attractiveness and weaken a country’s role in regional integration processes (Aniche, 2020). Population ageing, in turn, reshapes economic priorities, forcing the state to redirect resources from innovation and investment towards social welfare. In the long term, this limits economic development opportunities and increases vulnerability to external challenges (Wang; Wang, 2025).

Equally important is the role of migration processes in shaping economic security. Migration can partially compensate for labour shortages, bring in new competencies and support economic activity in certain sectors. At the same time, uncontrolled emigration of the working-age population, especially young and skilled workers, creates the phenomenon of “brain drain”, which reduces the potential for long-term development and complicates the achievement of strategic economic goals (Maria; Ionuț, 2024). Thus, contemporary approaches to economic security increasingly integrate the demographic component, considering it as one of the key factors shaping the economy’s resilience and the state’s ability to adapt to changes in the external environment.

In general, economic security is understood not only as a state’s ability to maintain financial and resource stability but also as ensuring the demographic sustainability of society, the formation of human capital, and the support of the working-age population. The loss of demographic potential, population ageing, and mass emigration not only reduce economic efficiency but also increase a state’s vulnerability to both external and internal threats, particularly in the context of regional cooperation and globalisation processes. For this reason, modern concepts of economic security envisage the integration of demographic strategies into national economic policy and regional cooperation mechanisms.

Armenia, as a South Caucasus country with limited natural and economic resources, relies on effective regional cooperation to ensure sustainable economic development. Its strategic position between Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Iran creates both opportunities for integration into transport, energy, and trade corridors, as well as risks related to political conflicts and limited access to certain markets (Sargsyan et al., 2024). In such a geopolitical context, economic interaction with neighbouring countries becomes particularly important, as it enables offsetting internal constraints by attracting investment, developing infrastructure, and gaining access to new markets. However, the effectiveness of this cooperation directly depends on the country’s demographic potential, as a limited working-age population and a shortage of skilled labour restrict Armenia’s ability to meet commitments and actively participate in regional projects.

Armenia’s regional cooperation spans several key areas. First, there is its involvement in multilateral integration organisations, such as the Eurasian Economic Union, where economic agreements and trade coordination standards influence the domestic economy. Second, the development of transport and energy corridors with neighbouring states has a direct effect on employment and labour productivity, making the availability of a sufficient number of qualified specialists critical to the implementation of these projects. Third, bilateral trade and economic agreements with Georgia and Iran allow the country to diversify its markets and attract foreign investment. However, demographic limitations and youth emigration reduce the internal resources available for fully exploiting these opportunities (Nazaretyan, 2023).

The demographic factor in regional cooperation is reflected through migration processes and population ageing. Emigration of young and highly skilled workers reduces the potential of the labour force in key sectors such as industry, energy, information technology, and transport infrastructure. Population ageing increases the social burden on the state and forces resources to be redirected from investment and innovation programmes towards social support for pensioners, thereby limiting Armenia’s ability to effectively implement regional projects and maintain competitiveness in the regional market. Table 1 presents the main demographic indicators for the country.

Table 1
Main demographic indicators for Armenia (2016-2024)

Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Population, thousands	2,986.1	2,972.7	2,965.3	2,959.7	2,963.3	2,961.4	2,977.1	2,990.9	3,075.8
Urban population, thousands	1,901.4	1,895.8	1,894.9	1,892.1	1,895.6	1,892.2	1,898.1	1,915.3	1,985.5
Rural population, thousands	1,084.7	1,076.9	1,070.4	1,067.6	1,067.7	1,069.2	1,079	1,075.6	1,090.3
Birth rate (per 1,000 population), ‰	13.5	12.6	12.3	12.2	12.3	12.4	12.3	12.3	11.1
Death rate (per 1,000 population), ‰	9.4	9.1	8.7	8.8	12.2	11.6	9	8.2	8.4
Number of pensioners (aged 63 and above), thousands	468.5	458.2	463.1	466.6	467	465.7	468.7	475.8	465.1
Labour resources, thousands	2,011.4	2,021.3	2,194.4	2,201.1	2,200	2,227.1	2,228.5	2,223.2	2,304.3
Economically active population, thousands	1,226.3	1,230.7	1,293.8	1,318.1	1,286.7	1,287.3	1,311.3	1,341.2	1,356.3
Employed population, thousands	1,006.2	1,011.7	1,048.5	1,077.4	1,052.4	1,088.3	1,134.8	1,174.4	1,168.4
Net migration, thousands	-14.7	-14.2	-13.1	-14.3	-13	-19.5	38	75	-29.9

• Source: Developed by the author based on the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (2025).

The analysis of Armenia’s demographic indicators for 2016-2024 shows a combination of positive and negative trends. Between 2016 and 2019, the country’s population gradually decreased from 2,986.1 thousand to 2,959.7 thousand, reflecting a depopulation trend. However, since 2020, the population began to increase, reaching 3,075.8 thousand in 2024, which may be explained by internal migration or statistical revisions. The urban population increased from 1,901.4 thousand to 1,985.5 thousand, while the rural population remained relatively stable (ranging from 1,067 to 1,090 thousand), reflecting ongoing urbanisation and the concentration of labour resources in cities, which simultaneously creates risks of regional disparities and places pressure on infrastructure.

The birth rate declined from 13.5‰ to 11.1‰, while the death rate fluctuated between 9.4‰ and 12.2‰, reflecting population ageing and the impact of crisis factors, notably the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of pensioners remained stable at 465-475 thousand, increasing the social burden. Labour resources grew from 2,011.4 thousand to 2,304.3 thousand, the economically active population increased from 1,226.3 thousand to 1,356.3 thousand, and employment rose from 1,006.2 thousand to 1,168.4 thousand, enhancing the potential for economic integration and regional cooperation. Net migration was negative in most years (-14.7 to -19.5 thousand), but a temporary increase occurred in 2022-2023 (+38 to +75 thousand), before returning to a negative value in 2024 (-29.9 thousand), highlighting the instability of migration processes.

A comparative analysis of the demographic situation in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan helped to clarify specific risks related to population size and structure, as well as to assess their impact on economic security. In Georgia, the demographic situation was characterised by low birth rates and gradual population ageing, similar to Armenia; however, the scale of demographic risks was significantly lower. The total population of Georgia remained relatively stable between 2016 and 2024, at around 3.7-3.9 million, with minor annual fluctuations of ±0.5%. Birth rates hovered around 12-13‰, while death rates remained at 9-10‰, resulting in a moderate natural population increase. An important factor in stability is the lower level of emigration: the net migration balance remains between -5 and -8 thousand per year, which is nearly half that of Armenia, and is largely offset by internal migration from rural regions to cities, as well as partial immigration from Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The working-age population in Georgia accounts for around 60% of the total population, while the economically active population is approximately 2.2 million, allowing the country to maintain labour market stability and minimise the social burden on pension and welfare systems (National Statistics Office of Georgia, 2025).

Moreover, urbanisation in Georgia is occurring gradually: the share of the urban population rises from 57% in 2016 to about 60% in 2024. This concentrates labour resources in cities, enabling more efficient use of human capital for industrial, service, and infrastructure projects. At the same time, rural regions retain a sufficient reserve of labour resources due to internal mobility, which reduces regional imbalances (National Statistics Office of Georgia, 2025). Georgia’s demographic stability provides the country with an advantage in maintaining economic security and participating in regional initiatives, as the reduction in the working-age population occurs moderately and predictably.

Azerbaijan, in contrast, has demonstrated a more dynamic demographic situation, markedly different from Armenia and Georgia. The country’s population grew from approximately 9.7 million in 2015 to over 10 million in 2024, partly due to a high birth rate of around 15-16‰, as well as a positive migration balance in previous years (+10 to +20 thousand). The working-age population of Azerbaijan accounts for approximately 63% of the total population, while the economically active population exceeds 6 million, which represents a higher proportion relative to its total population compared with Armenia and Georgia. This allows the country to expand its productive capacity and implement large-scale infrastructure projects (State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2025).

At the same time, Azerbaijan experiences significant regional disparities. Rural areas, particularly in mountainous and remote regions, often have limited access to quality education and labour markets, which reduces the effectiveness of demographic growth and generates internal socio-economic inequalities. Urbanisation is rapid: the share of the urban population has risen from 55% to 59% over the past decade, concentrating skilled labour in major cities while leaving rural areas with a shortage of personnel (State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2025). This concentration enables Azerbaijan to implement regional projects effectively, but diminishes the potential for evenly distributed economic development across its territories.

In comparison with these countries, Armenia faces systemic demographic challenges: low birth rates, an ageing population, and a negative migration balance simultaneously limit the size of the working-age population and increase the burden on social systems. Armenia’s net migration balance far exceeds the losses experienced by Georgia and is only partially offset by internal mobility. Population ageing and the growing proportion of pensioners place additional pressure on social expenditure, while the limited number of young and skilled workers hampers the country’s participation in regional transport and economic projects.

Armenia’s economic security is characterised by a combination of positive and challenging factors. On the one hand, the country maintains a stable share of economically active population, moderate GDP growth, and gradual urbanisation, creating potential for participation in regional economic projects. On the other hand, low birth rates, population ageing, a negative migration balance, and limited natural resources constitute structural risks, increase social pressure, and constrain the long‑term resilience of the economy. Table 2 presents the main indicators of the country’s economic security.

Table 2
Key indicators of Armenia’s economic security, 2016-2024

Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
GDP, billion AMD	5,067.3	5,564.5	6,017	6,543.3	6,181.9	6,991.8	8,501.4	9,492.5	10,193.4
GDP per capita, thousand AMD	1,697	1,871.9	2,029.1	2,210.8	2,086.2	2,361	2,855.6	3,173.8	3,314.1
National debt, million USD	4,803.4	5,513.9	5,536	5,784.5	6,059.4	6,648.5	6,445.4	6,501.5	6,454.2
National debt, % of GDP	45.7	48.0	44.5	42.3	51.2	44.6	29.9	25.9	23.0
Inflation rate, %	-1.4	1	2.5	1.4	1.2	7.2	8.6	2	0.3
Employment rate, %	50	50.1	47.7	48.9	47.8	48.9	50.9	52.8	50.7
Foreign trade turnover, million USD	5,065.2	6,334.8	7,388	8,175.9	7,101	8,378.2	14,195	21,314.7	30,201.8

• Source: Developed by the author based on the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia (2025).

Between 2016 and 2024, Armenia’s economy showed significant growth across key macroeconomic indicators. Gross domestic product nearly doubled, rising from AMD 5,067.3 to AMD 10,193.4 billion, while GDP per capita increased from AMD 1,697 to AMD 3,314 thousand, reflecting a gradual improvement in living standards. A notable positive development was the reduction in national debt: having peaked at over half the GDP in 2020 (51.2%), it decreased to 23% by 2024. This substantially lowered financial risks and demonstrated improved state capacity to manage debt burdens. At the same time, inflation exhibited uneven dynamics, ranging from deflation in 2016 to a peak of 8.6% in 2022. However, in subsequent years, inflation was successfully stabilised, reaching only 0.3% in 2024, thereby creating favourable conditions for investment.

Significant transformations occurred in the external economic sphere: foreign trade turnover increased sixfold, from USD 5 billion in 2016 to over USD 30 billion in 2024. This trend reflects Armenia’s growing engagement in regional and global markets. Nevertheless, the domestic labour market remained vulnerable: the employment rate fluctuated around 50% throughout the period, and even modest increases in 2022-2023 did not substantially alter the overall situation. This presents additional risks to economic security, as it limits domestic growth potential and increases social pressure on the state. Thus, during the period under study, Armenia was able to strengthen financial stability and enhance its external economic position; however, the effective utilisation of labour resources and reducing dependence on external market conditions remain central challenges for its economic security.

A comparative analysis of the economic security of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan reveals significant differences in macroeconomic indicators that affect stability and the capacity to integrate into regional economic processes. Georgia exhibited moderate economic growth in the 2020s, reaching 7.3% in 2024, but faces a high unemployment rate of approximately 14.3%. Despite a relatively low national debt (36.1% of GDP) and moderate inflation (4.65%), structural issues in the labour market and an uneven distribution of economic activity between urban and rural areas pose constraints on stability and long-term development. Migration flows exert a moderate influence, while urbanisation concentrates resources in major cities, facilitating economic integration but simultaneously exacerbating regional disparities (National Statistics Office of Georgia, 2025).

Azerbaijan, in contrast, exhibited stable economic growth of around 4.3% in 2024 and a low national debt level (20.5% of GDP), providing relative fiscal stability. Inflation remained moderate (6.34%), and the labour market was comparatively stable with low unemployment. The primary factor of economic vulnerability is the high dependence on energy resources, which makes the economy sensitive to fluctuations in global oil and gas prices. Migration flows are less pronounced, and urbanisation is gradual. While Azerbaijan demonstrates an overall capacity for a balanced distribution of labour resources at the national level, significant regional disparities persist, particularly between urban centres and remote rural or mountainous areas. Thus, the term “balanced distribution” refers to the potential for labour allocation across sectors and the country as a whole, rather than indicating uniform access or equality of resources across all regions (State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2025).

Compared with Georgia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s economic security displays certain distinctive features. The country demonstrates high economic growth rates and low inflation, reflecting effective macroeconomic policy; however, it simultaneously has a high level of national debt and significant dependence on external factors. Unlike Georgia, where high unemployment and structural labour market issues persist, Armenia has a steadily increasing labour force and economically active population, enhancing its potential for integration into regional economic projects. Compared with Azerbaijan, which benefits from low national debt and a stable labour market, Armenia’s economy is more vulnerable due to a negative migration balance and an ageing population. At the same time, Armenia exhibits strong urbanisation and a concentration of economic activity in cities, which supports economic growth but generates risks of regional imbalance. Overall, Armenia combines the advantages of stable economic development and a high labour potential with demographic challenges that require an integrated strategy, combining measures to encourage higher birth rates, reduce emigration, and improve the efficient use of labour resources to strengthen economic security. Table 3 presents the correlation analysis used to assess the impact of demographic factors on Armenia’s economic security, according to Formula 1.

Table 3
Correlation analysis between demographic indicators and economic security indicators in Armenia, 2016-2024

Demographic and Economic indicators	GDP	GDP per capita	National debt	Inflation	Employment	Foreign trade turnover
Population	0.69	0.65	0.24	-0.31	0.46	0.87
Urban population	0.72	0.69	0.32	-0.3	0.4	0.89
Rural population	0.42	0.38	-0.1	-0.29	0.57	0.59
Birth rate	-0.75	-0.74	0.68	-0.12	-0.09	-0.77
Death rate	-0.38	-0.37	0.14	0.22	-0.57	-0.46
Number of pensioners	0.48	0.5	0.33	0.1	0.55	0.36
Labour resources	0.77	0.78	0.83	0.42	0.06	0.67
Economically active population	0.87	0.88	0.75	0.22	0.32	0.8
Employed population	0.98	0.99	0.82	0.34	0.62	0.88
Net migration	0.46	0.49	0.37	0.32	0.71	0.29

• Source: Developed by the author.

The results of the correlation analysis reveal several important patterns explaining the relationship between demographic processes and Armenia’s economic security. Labour and migration factors exert a strong positive influence on economic outcomes. Employment demonstrates the closest association with GDP dynamics (r=0.98) and GDP per capita (r=0.99), confirming the critical importance of employment for economic growth. Similarly, the economically active population shows a strong correlation with GDP (r=0.87) and foreign trade turnover (r=0.80), while the size of the labour force exhibits a direct relationship with national debt in dollar terms (r=0.83) and an inverse relationship with debt as a percentage of GDP (r=-0.60), indicating increased resilience through the expansion of productive capacity.

Demographic structure and urbanisation processes are also significant factors. The urban population has a strong positive association with GDP (r=0.72) and foreign trade (r=0.89), reflecting the concentration of economic activity in cities. In contrast, the rural population shows a weaker connection with GDP (r=0.42) but a more noticeable correlation with employment levels (r=0.57), highlighting its role in maintaining labour market stability, albeit with a less pronounced effect on growth. Fertility, mortality, and migration indicators are considerably more vulnerable. Fertility exhibits a consistently negative correlation with key economic indicators (for example, with GDP r=-0.75 and with foreign trade r=-0.77), suggesting a disconnect between demographic cycles and economic development. Mortality, on the other hand, correlates directly with debt burden (as a percentage of GDP, r=0.62) and negatively with employment levels (r=-0.57), reflecting additional socio-economic losses during periods of higher mortality, particularly in years of crisis. Net migration demonstrated a positive association with GDP per capita (r=0.49) and employment levels (r=0.71), indicating that population inflows partially enhanced economic potential, although the instability of migration flows presents significant risks.

The impact of the pension burden also merits attention. The number of pensioners shows a moderate positive correlation with employment (r=0.55) and GDP (r=0.48), reflecting overall population growth. However, this trend simultaneously generates long-term risks for the state’s financial stability due to increased social expenditure. Overall, the results indicate that Armenia’s economic security is largely determined by employment levels and the size of the economically active population, whereas low fertility and unstable migration patterns constitute primary risk factors. Urbanisation supports economic growth but exacerbates disparities between urban and rural areas. Under these conditions, the key priority is the development of an integrated strategy that combines the stimulation of employment, reduction of emigration, and gradual balancing of the demographic structure to strengthen the country’s economic resilience.

Based on the analysis of Armenia’s demographic and economic indicators, as well as comparative research, specific measures have been identified to enhance the country’s economic security over the long term. Above all, it is essential to stimulate demographic growth and mitigate the adverse effects of population ageing. To achieve this, comprehensive family support programmes should be implemented, including tax incentives and financial subsidies for families with multiple children, the development of affordable housing for young families, and the expansion of early childhood education and care services. Strengthening the healthcare system is also essential, particularly in reproductive health and paediatrics, to increase birth rates and reduce mortality among children and the working-age population (Nakatani, 2023; Fedenko et al., 2025; Shckorbatov et al., 2009). Simultaneously, programmes aimed at retaining young people and highly skilled professionals within the country should be introduced through the creation of competitive jobs, development of professional training systems, internships, and career progression opportunities.

The second priority involves the development of labour resources and the economic activity of the population. The education system should be modernised by integrating academic and vocational training, particularly in high-tech industries, IT, innovative manufacturing, and the agricultural sector. Employment should be stimulated through support for small and medium-sized enterprises, provision of microcredits and grants for entrepreneurs, the development of start-up ecosystems, and professional training initiatives. Ensuring balanced development between urban and rural areas is also crucial by creating jobs in remote regions and investing in local infrastructure. This approach will help avoid excessive concentration of labour resources in major cities, reduce regional disparities, and optimise workforce utilisation for national economic projects (Carson; Carson; Argent, 2022).

The third priority concerns financial stability and economic diversification. Given the high dependence on specific sectors and external markets, it is essential to broaden the economic base through the development of industry, agriculture, tourism, and high‑tech sectors. At the same time, effective management of national debt and tax policy is crucial to reducing fiscal risks and ensuring the stable financing of strategic projects. To strengthen economic security, greater integration into regional economic initiatives is necessary, alongside the conclusion of international trade agreements, the attraction of foreign direct investment, and the creation of conditions for the long-term development of the country’s export potential (Kryvovyazyuk et al., 2020; Teta; Xhafka, 2024). These measures will not only enhance the economy’s resilience to external shocks but also ensure steady growth in national production and citizens’ incomes.

The fourth priority relates to social policy and the management of demographic risks. Gradual reform of the pension system is required to adapt to an ageing population, alongside the effective utilisation of social funds, while simultaneously directing resources towards the development of infrastructure, healthcare, and education. It is also important to establish professional retraining programmes and employment support for older generations, reducing the burden on pension funds while engaging experienced workers in economic activity (Amrahi Tabieh et al., 2025; Efremov, 2026). Additionally, regional programmes for infrastructure and communication development should be implemented to improve the efficiency of labour resource utilisation in both urban and rural areas, reduce social inequality, and support more balanced economic development across the country. Taken together, the implementation of these measures will enable Armenia to reduce demographic and social risks, strengthen financial resilience, enhance the competitiveness of its labour force, and ensure more stable and balanced economic growth in the long term, while simultaneously improving the country’s capacity to participate in regional economic initiatives.

4. Discussion

Armenia’s demographic situation exhibits a range of trends that present long-term challenges to the country’s economic security. Low birth rates and the gradual ageing of the population indicate that the working-age segment of society will shrink over time, while the demand for social and budgetary spending on non-working groups will increase. This creates a dual pressure: on the one hand, the potential for labour market expansion is limited, while on the other, the financial burden on the state system rises. It is important to acknowledge that demographic trends throughout the investigated period may have been affected by numerous significant external events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus. These events influenced death rates, migration patterns, and labour mobility, and were thus considered in the analysis of the demographic trends discovered in the study. Maestas, Mullen and Powell (2023) emphasised that population ageing is a key driver of growing economic instability. A declining proportion of working-age individuals leads to a reduced tax base, higher social welfare expenditures, and decreased investment in prospective sectors. Pham and Vo (2021) similarly noted that ageing slows innovation processes and creates risks of prolonged declines in productivity. This perspective aligns with findings on the increasing social burden on the economy; however, unlike the present analysis, these authors did not highlight low birth rates as a distinct demographic risk. This narrows the scope of the problem, as declining fertility and ageing are interrelated and mutually reinforcing.

Urbanisation is one of the most prominent processes shaping Armenia’s socio‑economic development. The concentration of the population in cities fosters the creation of economic hubs, supports the growth of the service sector, education, and innovation, and enhances the country’s competitiveness at the regional level (Rosynskyi et al., 2024; Knapik, 2025). However, this process is accompanied by an increase in spatial disparities. Rural areas, which still accommodate a significant proportion of the population, are gradually losing labour resources and investment opportunities. This poses the risk of a “two-speed economy”, in which large cities actively integrate into regional processes, while peripheral areas lag increasingly behind (Umbetbayeva et al., 2024). Sukanya and Tantia (2023) viewed urbanisation as a key driver of economic growth and infrastructure modernisation. Their conclusions emphasise the development of large cities as centres of knowledge, innovation, and investment. According to this perspective, spatial disparities between urban and rural areas are not critical, as internal labour mobility ensures relative equilibrium in the labour market. This contrasts with the findings of the present study, which highlight the risk of a “two-speed economy” characterised by significant underdevelopment in peripheral regions. Thus, while Sukanya and Tantia assign an unequivocally positive value to urbanisation, a more comprehensive approach recognises its effects as mixed and context dependent.

Employment remains a crucial indicator of economic security, as it directly determines household income, levels of consumer demand, and social stability (Murtezaj et al., 2024). The analysis of the results indicates that rising employment has contributed to positive economic shifts, including growth in production and trade. However, the labour market remains vulnerable due to the outflow of young and skilled workers abroad and the uneven development across sectors. In high-tech and service industries, there is a relative shortage of personnel, whereas in traditional sectors, there is a risk of labour oversupply (Kerimkhulle et al., 2025). Bartik et al. (2020) identified the labour market as the most resilient component of economic security. Their study emphasised the capacity of employment to remain stable even during periods of economic crisis, functioning as a buffer against shocks. Similarly, Silalahi and Walsh (2023) argued that the primary goal of public policy should be to maintain stable employment levels through investment in production and services. However, both studies pay insufficient attention to intersectoral imbalances and losses caused by migration, which directly affect the efficient use of labour resources. This distinguishes their approaches from more comprehensive analyses, where the labour market is examined in conjunction with demographic trends.

Migration processes occupy a central position among the factors influencing Armenia’s economic security. At times, population inflows have strengthened economic potential; however, the overall trend of emigration deprives the country of a significant portion of its working-age citizens (Ilieva, 2020). The emigration of young specialists, who possess the greatest innovative and labour potential, is particularly detrimental. This trend generates not only demographic but also socio-economic risks, as it reduces the tax base, increases the burden on social funds, and slows the modernisation of the economy (Hrinchenko et al., 2023; Ketners; Jarockis; Petersone, 2024). Liu, Liu and Cao (2025) primarily emphasised the positive effects of migration. According to their perspective, labour emigration boosts remittances, which in turn increase domestic consumption and stimulate investment in the local economy. Additionally, Hajro et al. (2021) noted that migration creates channels for integration into international economic networks, facilitating the development of new contacts and skills. These viewpoints contrast with the present study, which focuses on the negative consequences of the outflow of young and highly skilled workers, particularly the reduction in innovative potential. Migration is thus interpreted in two ways: as an external benefit through financial inflows or as an internal loss for the labour market.

Population ageing inevitably leads to an increase in the number of pensioners, imposing a significant financial burden on the state budget. This constrains the capacity to fund infrastructure projects, modernise the economy, and participate in regional integration programmes. Moreover, the traditional model of financing social obligations is becoming increasingly ineffective, as the ratio of working to non‑working citizens shifts unfavourably (Patashkova et al., 2021). Therefore, to safeguard economic security, it is essential to reform the pension system, particularly by diversifying its funding sources and promoting voluntary savings schemes. Devesa and Doménech (2020) argued that the burden associated with an increasing proportion of pensioners is not a decisive factor for economic stability. Their study focused primarily on the efficiency of public financial management and the quality of fiscal policy, which he considered capable of offsetting demographic challenges. This approach contrasts sharply with the findings of the present study, where population ageing and the rising number of non-working individuals are regarded as long-term risks to financial sustainability. This highlights a difference in the interpretation of the significance of social factors: in one perspective, they are secondary, whereas in the other, they constitute a central challenge.

A comparison of demographic and economic processes in Armenia with those in Georgia and Azerbaijan reveals an asymmetry in the level of economic security. Georgia, benefiting from relatively stable demographic indicators and controlled emigration, maintains greater predictability in its development, whereas Azerbaijan enjoys favourable demographics, with a population of approximately 9.9 million in 2016, high birth rates, and a positive migration balance. This provides it with broader opportunities to develop its labour resources and sustain economic growth. Ofori-Amoah (2024) viewed regional integration primarily as a process dependent on political agreements and intergovernmental treaties. In his framework, internal demographic trends have minimal impact on a country’s ability to participate in international projects. This perspective is in direct contrast to the current analysis, where labour shortages and migration losses are identified as the primary barriers to effective participation in regional cooperation. Thus, different approaches reveal a shift in emphasis: one focuses on political and institutional factors, while the other prioritises demographic and labour resources.

The correlation analysis confirmed that Armenia’s economic security is directly influenced by demographic factors. The strong link between employment levels and key economic indicators demonstrates that the labour market serves as the primary mechanism for ensuring macroeconomic stability (Arachi et al., 2012). Conversely, the negative impact of low birth rates and unstable migration flows highlights the economy’s vulnerability to demographic risks. This finding has practical implications for public policy, demonstrating the necessity of integrating the demographic dimension into economic development strategies. Pham and Doan (2020) concluded that financial stability is the principal determinant of economic security, largely shaping resilience to external shocks and crises. In their model, macro-financial indicators play the central role, while labour resources are considered secondary. This contrasts with the present analysis, where the labour market and employment levels are identified as the key determinants of economic security. Nonetheless, both approaches emphasise the complex nature of the issue, recognising that stability emerges at the intersection of financial, demographic, and social factors.

Overall, Armenia’s economic security is multidimensional and depends on the interaction of demographic, social, and economic factors. The identified risks – particularly population ageing, declining birth rates, and migration losses – pose long‑term challenges that constrain the development of the labour market and increase the burden on the financial system.

5. Conclusions

The study revealed that Armenia’s economic security in 2016-2024 was shaped by a combination of demographic and socio-economic factors. Between 2016 and 2019, the population gradually declined from 2,986.1 thousand to 2,959.7 thousand; however, from 2020 to 2024, the trend reversed, and by 2024, the population had reached 3,075.8 thousand. Urbanisation was evident in the growth of the urban population from 1,901.4 thousand to 1,985.5 thousand, while the rural population remained largely unchanged. This indicates a concentration of labour resources in cities, which stimulates economic development but exacerbates spatial disparities.

A significant risk is the decline in birth rates (from 13.5‰ in 2016 to 11.1‰ in 2024) and the instability of mortality, which peaked in 2020 before subsequently decreasing. Combined with the relatively stable number of pensioners (465-475 thousand), this underscores the intensification of population ageing, creating additional fiscal pressure. Labour resources grew from 2,011.4 thousand in 2016 to 2,304.3 thousand in 2024, and employment increased from 1,006.2 thousand to 1,168.4 thousand, providing a foundation for GDP growth, which doubled from AMD 5,067.3 billion to AMD 10,193.4 billion. At the same time, the instability of migration flows (ranging from -19.5 thousand to +75 thousand in different years) highlights demographic vulnerability, particularly with regard to the outflow of young and skilled workers.

Correlation analysis revealed a strong positive relationship between the number of employed individuals and GDP (r=0.98), as well as between the economically active population and foreign trade turnover (r=0.80). At the same time, birth rates had a consistently negative impact on key economic indicators (r=-0.75 for GDP), while migration exhibited unstable relationships, which in favourable years enhanced employment and GDP per capita. This confirms that Armenia’s economic security depends primarily on labour market dynamics, whereas demographic challenges – particularly low birth rates and emigration – pose long-term risks.

In a comparative context, Armenia lags behind neighbouring countries: Georgia exhibits a relatively stable demographic situation and controlled emigration, creating predictable conditions for development, whereas Azerbaijan is characterised by high birth rates and a positive migration balance, which supports the expansion of labour resources and enhances economic potential. Against this backdrop, the Armenian economy appears more vulnerable to demographic shocks and requires targeted measures to stimulate birth rates, modernise the labour market, and reduce migration losses.

In summary, ensuring economic security requires combining the promotion of employment and productivity with proactive demographic and migration policies. Balanced regional development, modernisation of education, reform of the pension system, and management of migration flows should be key priorities to strengthen economic resilience and facilitate Armenia’s integration into regional processes. A limitation of this study is its focus on demographic and socio-economic indicators without accounting for political and security factors, whereas future research should aim for a comprehensive analysis of the interconnections between demography, economic security, and regional integration.

• Financial support:
  None.
• Ethics Committee Approval:
  nothing to declare.
• Data Availability:
  Research data is only available upon request.
• Use of artificial intelligence-assisted technology:
  The authors declare that no artificial intelligence tools were used in the research reported here or in the preparation of this article.

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Edited by

• Editor:
  Venera Sabirova (OshSU, Kyrgyzstan) and Iuliia Tsyrfa (KNU, Ukraine)

Data availability

Research data is only available upon request.

Publication Dates

• Publication in this collection
  20 July 2026
• Date of issue
  2026

History

• Received
  25 Dec 2025
• Accepted
  27 Mar 2026