Risk analysis of hydrometeorological disasters: methodological approach applied to medium-sized municipalities

Abstract

The climate crisis has negatively affected people around the world, however, resilient cities have been able to better protect their inhabitants and, for this reason, several legal and regulatory instruments are being developed. Thus, the aim of this work was to propose a methodology for analyzing the risks of hydrometeorological disasters using sub-indicators of NBR ISO 37.123/2021 applied to municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants in Paraná, Brazil. In order to achieve this, we created new indicators based on annual information of extreme storms, excessive heat and cold weather and floods events, and the annual total number of people affected in the last ten years. The data were collected from Paraná Civil Defense and Paraná Institute of Economic and Social Development. The analysis was performed quantitatively by equations and graphs. We observed that cities such as Araucaria, Curitiba, Foz do Iguaçu, Guarapuava, Paranaguá, Ponta Grossa and São José dos Pinhais are the ones that most need to prepare for extreme storms and floods. Furthermore, Guarapuava is prone to cold waves and Maringá is vulnerable to strong storms. We also found that NBR ISO 37.123/2021 needs to be adapted to Brazilian reality regarding the indicators of hydrometeorological disaster.

Keywords:
Resilient cities; Sustainable cities; Climate change; Urban planning; Urban vulnerability