Political Competition and the Diffusion of Conditional Cash Transfers in Brazil

Coêlho, Denilson Bandeira

Abstract

What factors determine the diffusion of social policies? This article examines the launching of conditional cash transfer programs by Brazilian municipalities to explore this problem. The literature of political science asserts that such programs have been widely implemented because they correspond to an alternative policy strategy adopted by governments facing opposition to implement universal public policies. So, political competition would be at the root of CCT launching. This article presents an alternative explanation. From 1995 to 2001, local governments created or emulated the Bolsa Escola Program (BEP) in all regions of the country. Sucha a path continued after the lauching of the national Bolsa Escola by the federal government. Why did some local governments decide to adopt the national BEP and others did not? To answer these questions, the research tests the influence of structural, internal and external variables on the dissemination of CCT programs. Two main hypotheses are tested. The first asserts that local political competition is positive for policy diffusion. The second hypothesis claims that party alignment between the municipal and federal levels increases the likelihood of municipalities adopting the federal BEP. The research uses Event History Analysis to test statistically the impact of political incentives on policy diffusion among São Paulo State's municipalities. Two types of policy diffusion are examined: horizontal and vertical. The findings confirm that political competition influences the horizontal diffusion among municipalities. Unexpectedly, vertical diffusion does not occur because of party alignment or political competition. Rather, levels of socioeconomic development drive policy emulation.

policy diffusion; political competition; local government; conditional cash transfer programs

References

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Abrucio, Fernando Luiz. 2005. "A coordenação federativa no Brasil: a experiência do período FHC e os desafios do governo Lula". Revista de Sociologia Política, n.24, pp.41-67.
Abrahamson, E. 1991. "Managerial fads and fashions: the diffusion and rejection of innovations". Academy of Management Review, vol. 16, nº 3, pp. 586-612.
Abrahamson, E. 1996. "Management fashion". Academy of Management Review, vol. 21, nº 1, pp. 254-285.
Aguiar, Marcelo and Araújo, Carlos Henrique. 2002. Bolsa Escola: educação para enfrentar a pobreza Brasilia: UNESCO.
Amaral, Carlos et al. 1998. "Programas de Renda Mínima e Bolsa Escola - Concepção, Gestão e Financiamento". Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, Brasília: IPEA, v. 2, p. 4-58.
Andrade, T., Serra, R. 2001. Cidades Médias Brasileiras Rio de Janeiro: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
Arretche, Marta 2000. Estado Federativo e Políticas Sociais: Determinantes da Descentralização Rio de Janeiro: Editora Revan.
Arretche, Marta. 2004. "Toward a Unified e More Equitable System: Health Reform in Brazil". In: Crucial Needs Weak Incentives: Social Sector Reform, Democratization, and Globalization in Latin America, edited by Robert R. Kaufman and Joan M. Nelson. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
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Berry, Frances Stokes and Berry, William D. 1992, "Tax Innovation in the States: Capitalizing on Political Opportunity". American Journal of Political Science, vol. 36, nº 3, pp. 715-742.
Berry, Frances Stokes and Berry, William D. 1999, "Innovation and Diffusion Models in Policy Research". In: Theories of the Policy Process, edited by Paul. A. Sabatier. Boulder: Westview.
Boushey, Graeme. 2010. Policy Diffusion Dynamics in America New York: Cambridge University Press.
Box-Steffensmeir, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S. 1997. "Time is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science". American Journal of Political Science, vol. 41, nº 4, pp. 1414-1461.
Box-Steffensmeir, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S. 2004a. Event History Modeling: a Guide for Social Scientists. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Box-Steffensmeir, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S. 2004b. Timing and Political Change: Event History Modeling in Political Science. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Collier, David and Messick, Richard E. 1975. "Prerequisites versus Diffusion: Testing Alternative Explanations of Social Security Adoption". The American Political Science Review, vol. 69, Nº 4. pp. 1299-1315.
Cox, Gary W. and Mathew, D. 1993. Legislative leviathan: party government in the House Berkeley: University of California Press.
Draibe, Sônia 1998a. "A construção institucional da política brasileira de combate à pobreza: perfis, processos e agenda". Cadernos de Pesquisa, n.34. Campinas: UNICAMP / Núcleo de Estudos de Políticas Públicas.
Draibe, Sônia et al. 1998b. "Programas de Renda Mínima para Famílias Carentes: levantamento das experiências e metodologia de avaliação". In: Garantia de Renda Mínima: ensaios e propostas Brasília: IPEA.
Draibe, Sônia. 2004. "Federal Leverage in a Decentralized System: Education Reform in Brazil". In: Crucial Needs Weak Incentives: Social Sector Reform, Democratization, and Globalization in Latin America, edited by Robert R. Kaufman and Joan M. Nelson. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Dolowitz, Davi and Marsch, David. 1996. "Who Learns what from Whom: a Review of the Policy Transfer Literature". Political Studies, XLIV, pp. 343-357.
Dolowitz, Davi and Marsch, David 2000. "Learning from Abroad: The Role of Policy Transfer in Contemporary Policy-Making". Journal of Policy and Administration, vol.13, n.1, pp. 5-24.
Downs, A. 1999. Uma Teoria Econômica da Democracia São Paulo: Edusp.
Elazar, Daniel 1972. American Federalism New York: Thomas Crowell.
Elkins, Zachary and Simmons, Beth. 2005. "On Waves, Clusters, and Diffusion: A Conceptual Framework". Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 598(1), pp.33-51.
Faria, Carlos Aurélio Pimenta. 2003. "Idéias, Conhecimento e Políticas Públicas: Um Inventário Sucinto das Principais Vertentes Analíticas Recentes". Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais, vol. 18, nº 51,pp. 21-30.
Foster, John. 1978. "Regionalism and Innovation in the American States". Journal of Politics, vol. 40, pp. 179-187.
Levi-Faur, David. 2005. "The Global Diffusion of Regulatory Capitalism". Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 598, pp. 12-32.
Ferejohn, John and Pasquino, Pasquale. 2001. "A teoria da escolha racional na ciência política: conceitos de racionalidade em teoria política". Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais, v. 16, nº 45. pp. 5-24.
Gerring, John. 1997. "Ideology: A Definitional Analysis". Political Research Quarterly, vol. 50, nº 4, pp. 957-994.
Keefer, Philip and Khemani, Stuti. 2003a. "Democracy, Public Expenditures, and the Poor". World Bank Policy Working Paper, nº 3164.
Keefer, Philip and Khemani, Stuti. 2003b. "Why do the poor receive poor services?". Economic and Political Weekly, v.39, nº 9, pp. 935-943.
Keefer, Philip. 2005. "Programmatic parties: Where do they come from and do they matter?" Mimeo, The World Bank Development Research Group.
King, Gary, Keohane, Robert, and Verba, Sidney. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Lowi, Theodore. 1963. "Toward Functionalism in Political Science: The Case of Innovation in Party Systems". American Political Science Review, v. 57, nº 3, pp. 570-583.
Mainwaring, Scott. 1999. Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Melo, Marcus André. 1996. "Crise Federativa, Guerra Fiscal e Hobbesianismo Municipal: Efeitos Perversos da Descentralização?". São Paulo em Perspectiva Revista da Fundação SEADE, v.10, nº 3, pp. 11-20.
Melo, Marcus André. 2004. "Escolha Institucional e a Difusão dos Paradigmas de Políticas: O Brasil e a Segunda Onda de Reformas Previdenciárias". Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais, v. 47, nº. 1, pp. 169-206.
Melo, Marcus André. 2007. "Political Competition can be positive: embedding cash transfer programs in Brazil", In: Statecraft in the South, edited by Bebbington, A; W McCourt. London: Palgrave.
Mohr, Lawrence B. 1987. "Innovation Theory". In: New Technology as Organization Innovation, edited by Pennings JM and Buitendam A. Cambridge: Ballinger.
Mooney, Christopher Z. 2001. "Modeling Regional Effects on State Policy Diffusion". Political Research Quarterly, 54(1), 103-124. 2001.
Mossberger, Karen. 1999. "State-federal diffusion and policy learning". Publius, vol. 29, nº3, pp. 31-50.
Mullins, Willard A. 1972. "On the Concept of Ideology in Political Science". American Political Science Review, vol. 66, nº 2, pp. 498-510.
O'Donnell, Guillermo. 1991. "Democracia Delegativa?". Novos estudos, nº 31, pp. 25-40.
Palloni, Alberto. 2001. "Diffusion in Sociological Analysis" In: Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition, edited by John B. Casterline. National Research Council, Washington, D.C.: National Research Council Press.
Power, Timothy and Zucco, Cesar. 2009. "Estimating Ideology of Brazilian Legislative Parties, 1990-2005: A Research Communication". Latin American Research Review, vol.44, nº 1, pp. 218-246.
Rocha, S. and Garcia, E. 2001. O Programa de Bolsa-Escola Federal: uma avaliação do desenho e da operacionalização no período 1998-2000. Relatório para a OIT. Genebra: OIT.
Rogers, E. M. 1995. Diffusion of Innovations New York: Free Press.
Samuels, David. 2004. "The Political Logic of Decentralization in Brazil". In: Decentralization and Democracy in Latin America, edited by Alfred P. Montero and David Samuels. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.
Souza, Celina. 1997. Constitutional Engineering in Brazil: the politics of federalism and decentralization London: Macmillan; New York: St. Martin's Press.
Souza, Celina. 1998. "Intermediação de Interesses Regionais no Brasil: O impacto do federalismo e da descentralização". Dados, v.41, nº 3, pp. 569-592.
Stocking, B. 1985. Initiative and Inertia: Case Studies in the NHS London: Nuffield Provincial Hospitals Trust.
Sugiyama, Natasha Borges, 2007. "Theories of Policy Diffusion: Social Sector Reform in Brazil". Comparative Political Studies, v.20, nº 10, pp. 1-24.
Villatoro, Pablo. 2005. "Conditional Cash Transfers Programs: experiences from Latin American". CEPAL Review, nº 86, pp. 8396.
Walker, Jack L. 1969. "The Diffusion of Innovations among the American States". American Political Science Review, v. 63, nº 3, pp. 880-899.
Walker, Jack. L. 1973. "Comment: Problems in Research on the diffusion of policy innovations". The American Political Science Review, v.67, nº4, pp. 1186-1191.
Wampler, Brian. 2005. "A difusão do Orçamento Participativo brasileiro: 'boas práticas' devem ser promovidas?". Opinião Pública, v. 14, nº 1, pp. 65-95.
Welch, Susan and Thompson, Kay. 1980. "The impact of federal incentives on state policy Innovation". American Journal of Political Science, v. 24, nº 4, pp. 715-729.
Weyland, Kurt. 2004. Learning from Foreign Models in Latin American Policy Reform. Washington, D.C: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.
Weyland, Kurt. 2005. "Theories of Policy Diffusion: Lessons from Latin American Pension Reform". World Politics, v. 57, nº 2, pp. 262-295.
Weyland, Kurt. 2007. Bounded Rationality and Policy Diffusion: Social Sector Reform in Latin America Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Publication Dates

Publication in this collection
20 Aug 2013
Date of issue
2012

History

Received
Apr 2011
Accepted
Dec 2012

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

[1] Abrucio, Fernando Luiz. 2002. "Descentralização e Coordenação Federativa no Brasil: lições dos anos FHC". In: O Estado numa era de reformas: Os anos FHC - Parte 2, editado por Fernando Luiz Abrucio e Maria Rita Garcia Loureiro. Brasília: MP/SEGES.

[2] Abrucio, Fernando Luiz. 2005. "A coordenação federativa no Brasil: a experiência do período FHC e os desafios do governo Lula". Revista de Sociologia Política, n.24, pp.41-67.

[3] Abrahamson, E. 1991. "Managerial fads and fashions: the diffusion and rejection of innovations". Academy of Management Review, vol. 16, nº 3, pp. 586-612.

[4] Abrahamson, E. 1996. "Management fashion". Academy of Management Review, vol. 21, nº 1, pp. 254-285.

[5] Aguiar, Marcelo and Araújo, Carlos Henrique. 2002. Bolsa Escola: educação para enfrentar a pobreza Brasilia: UNESCO.

[6] Amaral, Carlos et al. 1998. "Programas de Renda Mínima e Bolsa Escola - Concepção, Gestão e Financiamento". Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, Brasília: IPEA, v. 2, p. 4-58.

[7] Andrade, T., Serra, R. 2001. Cidades Médias Brasileiras Rio de Janeiro: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

[8] Arretche, Marta 2000. Estado Federativo e Políticas Sociais: Determinantes da Descentralização Rio de Janeiro: Editora Revan.

[9] Arretche, Marta. 2004. "Toward a Unified e More Equitable System: Health Reform in Brazil". In: Crucial Needs Weak Incentives: Social Sector Reform, Democratization, and Globalization in Latin America, edited by Robert R. Kaufman and Joan M. Nelson. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

[10] Berry, Frances Stokes and Berry, William D. State Lottery. 1990. "Adoptions as Policy Innovations: An Event History Analysis". American Political Science Review, vol. 84, nº 2, pp. 395-415.

[11] Berry, Frances Stokes and Berry, William D. 1992, "Tax Innovation in the States: Capitalizing on Political Opportunity". American Journal of Political Science, vol. 36, nº 3, pp. 715-742.

[12] Berry, Frances Stokes and Berry, William D. 1999, "Innovation and Diffusion Models in Policy Research". In: Theories of the Policy Process, edited by Paul. A. Sabatier. Boulder: Westview.

[13] Boushey, Graeme. 2010. Policy Diffusion Dynamics in America New York: Cambridge University Press.

[14] Box-Steffensmeir, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S. 1997. "Time is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science". American Journal of Political Science, vol. 41, nº 4, pp. 1414-1461.

[15] Box-Steffensmeir, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S. 2004a. Event History Modeling: a Guide for Social Scientists. New York: Cambridge University Press.

[16] Box-Steffensmeir, Janet M. and Jones, Bradford S. 2004b. Timing and Political Change: Event History Modeling in Political Science. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

[17] Collier, David and Messick, Richard E. 1975. "Prerequisites versus Diffusion: Testing Alternative Explanations of Social Security Adoption". The American Political Science Review, vol. 69, Nº 4. pp. 1299-1315.

[18] Cox, Gary W. and Mathew, D. 1993. Legislative leviathan: party government in the House Berkeley: University of California Press.

[19] Draibe, Sônia 1998a. "A construção institucional da política brasileira de combate à pobreza: perfis, processos e agenda". Cadernos de Pesquisa, n.34. Campinas: UNICAMP / Núcleo de Estudos de Políticas Públicas.

[20] Draibe, Sônia et al. 1998b. "Programas de Renda Mínima para Famílias Carentes: levantamento das experiências e metodologia de avaliação". In: Garantia de Renda Mínima: ensaios e propostas Brasília: IPEA.

[21] Draibe, Sônia. 2004. "Federal Leverage in a Decentralized System: Education Reform in Brazil". In: Crucial Needs Weak Incentives: Social Sector Reform, Democratization, and Globalization in Latin America, edited by Robert R. Kaufman and Joan M. Nelson. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

[22] Dolowitz, Davi and Marsch, David. 1996. "Who Learns what from Whom: a Review of the Policy Transfer Literature". Political Studies, XLIV, pp. 343-357.

[23] Dolowitz, Davi and Marsch, David 2000. "Learning from Abroad: The Role of Policy Transfer in Contemporary Policy-Making". Journal of Policy and Administration, vol.13, n.1, pp. 5-24.

[24] Downs, A. 1999. Uma Teoria Econômica da Democracia São Paulo: Edusp.

[25] Elazar, Daniel 1972. American Federalism New York: Thomas Crowell.

[26] Elkins, Zachary and Simmons, Beth. 2005. "On Waves, Clusters, and Diffusion: A Conceptual Framework". Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 598(1), pp.33-51.

[27] Faria, Carlos Aurélio Pimenta. 2003. "Idéias, Conhecimento e Políticas Públicas: Um Inventário Sucinto das Principais Vertentes Analíticas Recentes". Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais, vol. 18, nº 51,pp. 21-30.

[28] Foster, John. 1978. "Regionalism and Innovation in the American States". Journal of Politics, vol. 40, pp. 179-187.

[29] Levi-Faur, David. 2005. "The Global Diffusion of Regulatory Capitalism". Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 598, pp. 12-32.

[30] Ferejohn, John and Pasquino, Pasquale. 2001. "A teoria da escolha racional na ciência política: conceitos de racionalidade em teoria política". Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais, v. 16, nº 45. pp. 5-24.

[31] Gerring, John. 1997. "Ideology: A Definitional Analysis". Political Research Quarterly, vol. 50, nº 4, pp. 957-994.

[32] Keefer, Philip and Khemani, Stuti. 2003a. "Democracy, Public Expenditures, and the Poor". World Bank Policy Working Paper, nº 3164.

[33] Keefer, Philip and Khemani, Stuti. 2003b. "Why do the poor receive poor services?". Economic and Political Weekly, v.39, nº 9, pp. 935-943.

[34] Keefer, Philip. 2005. "Programmatic parties: Where do they come from and do they matter?" Mimeo, The World Bank Development Research Group.

[35] King, Gary, Keohane, Robert, and Verba, Sidney. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry Princeton: Princeton University Press.

[36] Lowi, Theodore. 1963. "Toward Functionalism in Political Science: The Case of Innovation in Party Systems". American Political Science Review, v. 57, nº 3, pp. 570-583.

[37] Mainwaring, Scott. 1999. Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

[38] Melo, Marcus André. 1996. "Crise Federativa, Guerra Fiscal e Hobbesianismo Municipal: Efeitos Perversos da Descentralização?". São Paulo em Perspectiva Revista da Fundação SEADE, v.10, nº 3, pp. 11-20.

[39] Melo, Marcus André. 2004. "Escolha Institucional e a Difusão dos Paradigmas de Políticas: O Brasil e a Segunda Onda de Reformas Previdenciárias". Dados - Revista de Ciências Sociais, v. 47, nº. 1, pp. 169-206.

[40] Melo, Marcus André. 2007. "Political Competition can be positive: embedding cash transfer programs in Brazil", In: Statecraft in the South, edited by Bebbington, A; W McCourt. London: Palgrave.

[41] Mohr, Lawrence B. 1987. "Innovation Theory". In: New Technology as Organization Innovation, edited by Pennings JM and Buitendam A. Cambridge: Ballinger.

[42] Mooney, Christopher Z. 2001. "Modeling Regional Effects on State Policy Diffusion". Political Research Quarterly, 54(1), 103-124. 2001.

[43] Mossberger, Karen. 1999. "State-federal diffusion and policy learning". Publius, vol. 29, nº3, pp. 31-50.

[44] Mullins, Willard A. 1972. "On the Concept of Ideology in Political Science". American Political Science Review, vol. 66, nº 2, pp. 498-510.

[45] O'Donnell, Guillermo. 1991. "Democracia Delegativa?". Novos estudos, nº 31, pp. 25-40.

[46] Palloni, Alberto. 2001. "Diffusion in Sociological Analysis" In: Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition, edited by John B. Casterline. National Research Council, Washington, D.C.: National Research Council Press.

[47] Power, Timothy and Zucco, Cesar. 2009. "Estimating Ideology of Brazilian Legislative Parties, 1990-2005: A Research Communication". Latin American Research Review, vol.44, nº 1, pp. 218-246.

[48] Rocha, S. and Garcia, E. 2001. O Programa de Bolsa-Escola Federal: uma avaliação do desenho e da operacionalização no período 1998-2000. Relatório para a OIT. Genebra: OIT.

[49] Rogers, E. M. 1995. Diffusion of Innovations New York: Free Press.

[50] Samuels, David. 2004. "The Political Logic of Decentralization in Brazil". In: Decentralization and Democracy in Latin America, edited by Alfred P. Montero and David Samuels. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.

[51] Souza, Celina. 1997. Constitutional Engineering in Brazil: the politics of federalism and decentralization London: Macmillan; New York: St. Martin's Press.

[52] Souza, Celina. 1998. "Intermediação de Interesses Regionais no Brasil: O impacto do federalismo e da descentralização". Dados, v.41, nº 3, pp. 569-592.

[53] Stocking, B. 1985. Initiative and Inertia: Case Studies in the NHS London: Nuffield Provincial Hospitals Trust.

[54] Sugiyama, Natasha Borges, 2007. "Theories of Policy Diffusion: Social Sector Reform in Brazil". Comparative Political Studies, v.20, nº 10, pp. 1-24.

[55] Villatoro, Pablo. 2005. "Conditional Cash Transfers Programs: experiences from Latin American". CEPAL Review, nº 86, pp. 8396.

[56] Walker, Jack L. 1969. "The Diffusion of Innovations among the American States". American Political Science Review, v. 63, nº 3, pp. 880-899.

[57] Walker, Jack. L. 1973. "Comment: Problems in Research on the diffusion of policy innovations". The American Political Science Review, v.67, nº4, pp. 1186-1191.

[58] Wampler, Brian. 2005. "A difusão do Orçamento Participativo brasileiro: 'boas práticas' devem ser promovidas?". Opinião Pública, v. 14, nº 1, pp. 65-95.

[59] Welch, Susan and Thompson, Kay. 1980. "The impact of federal incentives on state policy Innovation". American Journal of Political Science, v. 24, nº 4, pp. 715-729.

[60] Weyland, Kurt. 2004. Learning from Foreign Models in Latin American Policy Reform. Washington, D.C: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.

[61] Weyland, Kurt. 2005. "Theories of Policy Diffusion: Lessons from Latin American Pension Reform". World Politics, v. 57, nº 2, pp. 262-295.

[62] Weyland, Kurt. 2007. Bounded Rationality and Policy Diffusion: Social Sector Reform in Latin America Princeton: Princeton University Press.