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Impacts of climatic changes on the vegetative development of olive cultivars

Impactos de mudanças climáticas no desenvolvimento vegetativo de cultivares de oliveira

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to simulate the vegetative development of the olive cultivars Arbequina and MGS ASC315 cultivated in Maria da Fé, MG, Brazil (22° 18’ 29” S, 45° 22’ 31” W, 1.276 m of altitude). The development of these cultivars was simulated in nine transplanting dates, considering three distinct scenarios for three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Climate changes influence the olive crop management. The increase in air temperature modifies the development rate and the duration of the seedling phase of the cultivars Arbequina and MGSASC315. In colder months, there is accelerated vegetative development and shorter seedling phase duration. Conversely, in warmer months, there is delayed development with longer seedling phase duration.

Key words:
Olea europaea L.; phenology; air temperature

RESUMO

Este estudo teve como objetivo simular o desenvolvimento vegetativo das cultivares de oliveira Arbequina e MGS ASC315 cultivadas em Maria da Fé, MG, Brasil (22° 18’ 29” S, 45° 22’ 31” W, 1.276 m de altitude). O desenvolvimento destas cultivares foi simulado em nove épocas de transplantio, considerando três cenários distintos para três períodos (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100). As mudanças climáticas influenciaram o manejo da cultura da oliveira. O aumento na temperatura modifica a taxa de desenvolvimento e a duração da fase de muda das cultivares de oliveira Arbequina e MGS ASC315. Em meses mais frios, existe o desenvolvimento vegetativo acelerado e redução da duração da fase de muda, enquanto em meses mais quentes, existe um desenvolvimento retardado com aumento da duração da fase de muda.

Palavras-chave:
Olea europaea L.; fenologia; temperatura do ar

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker, T. F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S. K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V.; Midgley, P. M. (eds.). Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University, 2013. 33p.) has projected increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature up to 5.0 °C in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in the 21st century (Santos et al., 2017bSantos, D. F. dos; Martins, F. B.; Torres, R. R. Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, v.21, p.77-82, 2017b. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agriambi.v21n2p77-82
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agri...
). In theory, C3 plants, which represent most terrestrial species, should be favored by the increase of CO2 since they are highly dependent on atmospheric CO2 to have the enzyme Rubisco, which is solely responsible for the metabolic process that governs photosynthesis in C3 plants (Fagundes et al., 2010Fagundes, J. D.; Paula, G. M. de; Lago, I.; Streck, N. A.; Bisognin, D. A. Aquecimento global: Efeitos no crescimento, no desenvolvimento e na produtividade da batata. Ciência Rural, v.40, p.1464-1472, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782010005000091
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782010...
; Taiz et al., 2018Taiz, L; Zeiger, E.; Møller, I. M.; Murphy, A. Plant physiology and development. 6.ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018. 513p.). Conversely, the Warburg effect occurs under high temperature conditions, in which O2 inhibits the fixation of CO2 by the Rubisco enzyme, thus reducing photosynthesis and increasing photorespiration (Marenco & Lopes, 2009Marenco, R. A.; Lopes, N. F. Fisiologia vegetal: Fotossíntese, respiração, relações hídricas e nutrição mineral. 3.ed. Viçosa: Editora UFV, 2009. 486p.). This impact hinders development because it shortens the cycle duration and reduces yield, due to the reduction of photosynthesis and the accumulation of photoassimilates (Fagundes et al., 2010). Thus, studies examining the potential impacts of climatic changes on the development of annual and perennial species are important in scenarios with promising economic potential (IPCC, 2013IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker, T. F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S. K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V.; Midgley, P. M. (eds.). Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University, 2013. 33p.; Walter et al., 2014Walter, L. C.; Streck, N. A.; Rosa, H. T.; Ferraz, S. E. T.; Cera, J. C. Mudanças climáticas e seus efeitos no rendimento de arroz irrigado no Rio Grande do Sul. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira , v.49, p.915-924, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X2014001200001
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X2014...
), such as olive trees that are cultivated in the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil (Martins et al., 2012Martins, F. B.; Reis, D. F.; Pinheiro, M. V. M. Temperatura base e filocrono em duas cultivares de oliveira. Ciência Rural, v.42, p.1975-1981, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-8478201200...
; Wrege et al., 2015Wrege, M. S.; Coutinho, E. F.; Pantano, A. P.; Jorge, R. O. Distribuição potencial de oliveiras no Brasil e no mundo. Revista Brasileira de Fruticultura, v.37, p.656-666, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0100-2945-174/14
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0100-2945-174/...
; Santos et al., 2017b).

The impact of climate change on olive crops can be analyzed through the development of simulation models which are commonly used for annual crops (Streck et al., 2011Streck, N. A.; Lago, I.; Oliveira, F. B.; Heldwein, A. B.; Avila, L. A. de; Bosco, L. C. Modeling the development of cultivated rice and weedy red rice. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, v.54, p.371-384, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/2013.36234
http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/2013.36234...
) and scarce for perennial crops (Costa & Streck, 2018Costa, D. B. da; Streck, N. A. Duração da fase de mudas em eucalipto simulada em cenários de aumento de temperatura. Ciência Florestal, v.28, p.1263-1270, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1980509833378
http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1980509833378...
). These models simulate the development through leaf appearance rate (LAR), using air temperature response functions, differing basically between linear or additive and non-linear or multiplicative categories (Martins et al., 2014Martins, F. B.; Pereira, R. A. de A.; Pinheiro, M. V. M.; Abreu, M. C. Desenvolvimento foliar em duas cultivares de oliveira estimado por duas categorias de modelos. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v.29, p.505-514, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
). The aim of the present study was to simulate the vegetative development of the cultivars Arbequina and MGS ASC315 in nine transplanting dates, considering different climate projections.

Material and Methods

Due to the expansion of olive crops cultivation in Minas Gerais, Brazil (Garcia et al., 2018Garcia, S. R.; Santos, D. F. dos; Martins, F. B.; Torres, R. R. Aspectos climatológicos associados ao cultivo da oliveira (Olea europaea L.) em Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v.22, p.188-209, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0.56825
http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0....
), a numerical study was performed in Maria da Fé, MG, Brazil (22° 18' 29" S, 45° 22' 31" W, 1.276 m of altitude). According to Köppen classification, the region presents Cwb climate, characterized by dry winters and rainy summers (Souza & Martins, 2014Souza, P. M. B. de; Martins, F. B. Estimativa da temperatura basal inferior para as cultivares de oliveira Grappolo e Maria da Fé. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia , v.29, p.307-313, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862014000200013
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862014...
). The cultivars Arbequina and MGS ASC315 were chosen because both have been used with the objective of producing olive oil in the region (Martins et al., 2012).

The vegetative development models (VD) used in this study were differentiated for each cultivar, with the Wang and Engel model (WE) for Arbequina and the Phyllochron model (PHYL) for MGS ASC315, based on the results obtained by Martins et al. (2014Martins, F. B.; Pereira, R. A. de A.; Pinheiro, M. V. M.; Abreu, M. C. Desenvolvimento foliar em duas cultivares de oliveira estimado por duas categorias de modelos. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v.29, p.505-514, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
). In both models, VD is given by the number of accumulated leaves in the main stem (NL) which integrated in time provides the duration of the seedling phase (DSS), which refers to the number of days between the transplanting date and the threshold of NL = 20 (Martins et al., 2012, 2014).

In the WE model, NL is given by Martins et al. (2014Martins, F. B.; Pereira, R. A. de A.; Pinheiro, M. V. M.; Abreu, M. C. Desenvolvimento foliar em duas cultivares de oliveira estimado por duas categorias de modelos. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v.29, p.505-514, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
) Eq. 1:

NL estimated = i = 1 n LAR max f T (1)

where:

NLestimated - number of accumulated leaves in the main stem;

LARmax - maximum daily leaf appearance rate (0.270390 leaves d-1); and,

f(T) - beta function of air temperature (Eqs. 2 and 3):

f T = 2 Tm Tb α Tot Tb α Tm Tb 2 α Tot Tb 2 α , w h e n T b T m T B (2)

f T = 0, when T m < T b or T m > T B (3)

where:

Tm - daily mean air temperature;

Tb, Tot and TB - cardinal temperatures for Arberquina (10.5, 16.1 and 37.8 ºC, respectively) (Lisboa et al., 2012Lisboa, P. M. M.; Martins, F. B.; Alvarenga, M. I. N.; Vieira Neto, J.; Reis, D. F. da. Desenvolvimento vegetativo de duas cultivares de oliveira na fase de muda. Ciência Rural, v.42, p.1556-1562, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012000900007
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
; Martins et al., 2012Martins, F. B.; Reis, D. F.; Pinheiro, M. V. M. Temperatura base e filocrono em duas cultivares de oliveira. Ciência Rural, v.42, p.1975-1981, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-8478201200...
, 2014); and,

α - calibration coefficient (Eq. 4):

α = ln 2 ln T B T b / Tot Tb (4)

where:

i - date of the beginning of simulation (Table 1); and,

n - date that the cultivar Arbequina reaches NL = 20.

Table 1
Beginning of the simulations based on transplanting date (TT) and duration of the seedling phase, in calendar days, in both olive cultivars

In the PHYL model, NL is given by Martins et al. (2014Martins, F. B.; Pereira, R. A. de A.; Pinheiro, M. V. M.; Abreu, M. C. Desenvolvimento foliar em duas cultivares de oliveira estimado por duas categorias de modelos. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v.29, p.505-514, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
) (Eq. 5):

NL estimated = STac i = 1 n / PHYL ¯ (5)

where:

STac - air temperature function, given by the sum of the daily thermal time (Std) (Eqs. 6 to 8):

Std = Tm Tb 1 day , when T b < T m T o t (6)

Std = Tot Tb Tm TB Tot Tb 1 day , when T o t < T m T B (7)

Std = 0 , when T m T b or T m T B (8)

where:

Tb, Tot and TB - cardinal temperatures for MGSASC315 (11.0, 14.7 and 37.8 ºC respectively) (Lisboa et al., 2012Lisboa, P. M. M.; Martins, F. B.; Alvarenga, M. I. N.; Vieira Neto, J.; Reis, D. F. da. Desenvolvimento vegetativo de duas cultivares de oliveira na fase de muda. Ciência Rural, v.42, p.1556-1562, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012000900007
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
; Martins et al., 2012Martins, F. B.; Reis, D. F.; Pinheiro, M. V. M. Temperatura base e filocrono em duas cultivares de oliveira. Ciência Rural, v.42, p.1975-1981, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-8478201200...
, 2014);

n - when the cultivar MGSASC315 reaches NL = 20; and,

PHYL - average phyllochron values (17.05 oC d leaf-1).

Tm data from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) - MIROC5 (M1), IPSL-CM5 (M2) and MRI-CGC (M3) (MCGs) members of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used in the air temperature functions of the VD models (f(T) of the WE and STac models in the PHYL model). GCMs were chosen due to the unavailability of up-to-date results from regional models, which are highly computationally costly. Besides, the new generation of GCMs represents the state of the art in climate system modeling (Santos et al., 2017bSantos, D. F. dos; Martins, F. B.; Torres, R. R. Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, v.21, p.77-82, 2017b. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agriambi.v21n2p77-82
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agri...
).

Future climate simulations of CMIP5 use the new generation of radiative forcing scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) -2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, which correspond to approximate radiative forcing of 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 W m-2, associated with CO2 equivalent concentrations of 490, 650 and 1.370 ppm, respectively at the end of the 21st century (Moss et al., 2010Moss, R. H.; Edmonds, J. A.; Hibbard, K. A.; Manning, M. R.; Rose, S. K.; Vurren, D. P. van; Carter, T. R.; Emori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Kram, T.; Meehl, G. A.; Mitchell, J. F. B.; Nakicenovic, N.; Riahi, K.; Smith, S. J.; Stouffer, R. J.; Thomson, A. M.; Weyant, J. P.; Wilbanks, T. J. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, v.463, p.747-756, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823...
; Vuuren et al., 2011Vuuren, D. P. van; Edmonds, J.; Kainuma, M.; Riahi, K.; Thomson, A.; Hibbard, K.; Hurtt, G. C.; Kram, T.; Krey, V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Masui, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Nakicenovic, N.; Smith, S. J.; Rose, S. K. The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, v.109, p.5-31, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-...
).

The Tm used in the VD models was obtained by Eq. 9:

Tm = Tmax + Tmin / 2 (9)

where:

Tmax - obtained by the average daily maximum air temperatures of the three GCMs (ºC); and,

Tmin - obtained by the average daily minimum air temperatures of the three GCMs (ºC).

It was necessary to make Tm corrections in the three GCMs. Therefore, the methodology proposed by Lenderink et al. (2007Lenderink, G.; Buishand, A.; Deusen, W. van. Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: Direct versus delta approach. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences, v.11, p.1145-1159, 2007. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1145-2007
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1145-200...
) was used. It is based on the monthly bias between the climatic means (NP) obtained with the meteorological station data and the climatic means of the historical period of the GCMs, both for 1971 to 2000. Subsequently, the bias was applied to the daily values of Tm for the month in question (January: 3.4; February: 2.8; March: 3.1; April: 3.2; May: 4.7; June: 4.8; July: 4.5; August: 4.5; September: 3.8; October: 3.5; November: 3.9; December: 3.2 (ºC)).

Finally, to evaluate the impact of climate change on the DSS variable, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied in a tri-factorial scheme (9 x 3 x 3) to evaluate the effect of the sources of variation: transplanting dates (nine periods), representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) and projections (PR1 = 2011-2040, PR2 = 2041-2070 and PR3 = 2071-2100), as recommended by Streck et al. (2013Streck, N. A.; Uhlmann, L. O.; Gabriel, L. F. Leaf development of cultivated rice and weedy red rice under elevated temperature scenarios. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental , v.17, p.190-199, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013000200010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013...
). The DSS values were submitted to the Shapiro-Wilk normality test (p ≤ 0.05) and the means were compared by the Scott-Knott test (p ≤ 0.05) using the software SISVAR 5.3 (Ferreira, 2011Ferreira, D. F. Sisvar: A computer statistical analysis system. Ciência e Agrotecnologia, v.35, p.1039-1042, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1413-70542011000600001
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1413-70542011...
).

Results and Discussion

The air temperature projections for each RCP demonstrate a gradual increase in mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures throughout the 21st century, especially for RCP 8.5. This is expected because it presents the greatest radiative forcing (8.5 W m-2) and concentration of emitted CO2 (1.370 ppm) (Riahi et al., 2011Riahi, K.; Rao, S.; Krey, V.; Cho, C.; Chirkov, V.; Fischer, G.; Kindermann, G.; Nakicenovic, N.; Rafaj, P. RCP 8.5: A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change, v.109, p.33-57, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-...
) (Figure 1).

Figure 1
Minimum (A), mean (B) and maximum (C) temperature projections obtained by the average of three general circulation models (GCMs) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5)

This increase can reach 1.5 °C in the short term (PR1), 3.0 °C in the medium term (PR2) and up to 4.0 °C in the long term (PR3) for Maria da Fé, MG, Brazil (Table 2). This corroborates the values recorded by Santos et al. (2017bSantos, D. F. dos; Martins, F. B.; Torres, R. R. Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, v.21, p.77-82, 2017b. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agriambi.v21n2p77-82
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agri...
) for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Table 2
Characterization of medium air temperature (ºC) for simulations based on transplanting dates (TT) for the cultivars Arbequina and MGSASC315 for short (PR1 = 2011-2040), medium (PR2 = 2041-2070) and long term projections (PR3 = 2071-2099) in three representative concentration pathways - RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) for Maria da Fé, MG, Brazil

Such increases in air temperature (Figure 1) will result in direct damage to the physiological processes of plants, influencing the duration of the vegetative and reproductive stages in olive crops (Tanasijevic et al., 2014Tanasijevic, L.; Todorovic, M.; Pereira, L. S.; Pizzigalli, C.; Lionello, P. Impacts of climate change on olive crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region. Agricultural Water Management, v.144, p.54-68, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05.019
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05....
) and, consequently, in the DSS. This occurs because the reactions of photosynthesis and photorespiration, enzymatic activities, rate of transport and translocation of solutes (Freitas et al., 2017Freitas, C. H. de; Martins, F. B.; Abreu, M. C. Cardinal temperatures for the leaf development of Corymbia citriodora and Eucalyptus urophylla seedlings. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, v.52, p.283-292, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0100-204x2017000500001
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0100-204x2017...
) are intensified or reduced based on the temperature (Taiz et al., 2018Taiz, L; Zeiger, E.; Møller, I. M.; Murphy, A. Plant physiology and development. 6.ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018. 513p.).

Generally, in the current and future climates (PR1, PR2 and PR3), the DSS in Arbequina is lower than in MGS ASC315. In addition, except for TT5 (i = 29/09) and TT9 (i = 15/01), there is a similar behavior of DSS between the two cultivars, radiative forcing and projections. The rise in temperature will increase the DSS in TT1 (20/05), TT4 (20/08), TT6 (27/10), TT7 (20/11) and TT8 (21/12) and reduce DSS in TT2 (20/06) and TT3 (20/07) in both cultivars. Except for TT1, the increase in DSS occurred in simulations performed in periods with the highest air temperatures (Table 2). On the contrary, the reduction of DSS (about 20 days for Arbequina and 50 for MGS ASC315) occurred in periods with the lowest values of air temperature, especially in TT3 and in RCP 8.5 (Figure 2).

Figure 2
Duration of the seedling phase (DSS) for the cultivars Arbequina (A, B and C) and MGSASC315 (D, E and F) observed (OBS) and simulated for short (PR1 = 2011-2040), medium (PR2 = 2041-2070) and long term projection (PR3 = 2071-2099) in representative concentration pathways - RCPs 2.6 (1), 4.5 (2) and 8.5 (3)

The increase in DSS occurred mainly in the spring and summer (MGS ASC 315) (TT6, TT7, TT8 and TT9) (Figure 2), in which the highest values of Tm were projected; this is similar to what was observed for the VD of red rice (Streck et al., 2013Streck, N. A.; Uhlmann, L. O.; Gabriel, L. F. Leaf development of cultivated rice and weedy red rice under elevated temperature scenarios. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental , v.17, p.190-199, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013000200010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013...
) and potato (Streck et al., 2006Streck, N. A.; Lago, I.; Alberto, C. M.; Bisognin, D. A. Simulação do desenvolvimento de batata cultivar asterix em cinco cenários de mudança climática em Santa Maria, RS. Bragantia, v.65, p.693-702, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052006000400021
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052006...
). This occurs because at higher temperatures, especially above Tot (Arbequina = 16.1 °C and MGS ASC315 = 14.7 °C) (Lisboa et al., 2012Lisboa, P. M. M.; Martins, F. B.; Alvarenga, M. I. N.; Vieira Neto, J.; Reis, D. F. da. Desenvolvimento vegetativo de duas cultivares de oliveira na fase de muda. Ciência Rural, v.42, p.1556-1562, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012000900007
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
), there is a reduction in the development rate, thus increasing the DSS. Reduced development occurs due to higher breath maintenance rate, energy-consuming process (ATP and NADPH) or carbon skeletons from photosynthesis (Taiz et al., 2018Taiz, L; Zeiger, E.; Møller, I. M.; Murphy, A. Plant physiology and development. 6.ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018. 513p.), which raise maintenance costs by increasing protein turnover and maintaining ionic balance (Marenco & Lopes, 2009Marenco, R. A.; Lopes, N. F. Fisiologia vegetal: Fotossíntese, respiração, relações hídricas e nutrição mineral. 3.ed. Viçosa: Editora UFV, 2009. 486p.; Ruelland & Zachowski, 2010Ruelland, E.; Zachowski, A. How plants sense temperature. Environmental and Experimental Botany, v.69, p.225-232, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2010.05.011
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2010...
).

Significant effect of triple interaction was verified among transplanting dates, radiative forcing and projections for both cultivars (p ≤ 0.05) on the DSS. Among the main effects, the highest values of the f-test were for the transplanting date (1061.51: Arbequina and 506.53: MGSASC315), RCP (420.57: Arbequina and 161.84: MGSASC315) and projection (225.81: Arbequina and 84.67: MGS ASC315). This indicates that the transplanting date has a greater effect on VD and DSS for both olive cultivars (Table 3), similar to what was observed by Streck et al. (2013Streck, N. A.; Uhlmann, L. O.; Gabriel, L. F. Leaf development of cultivated rice and weedy red rice under elevated temperature scenarios. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental , v.17, p.190-199, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013000200010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013...
) in different rice genotypes.

Table 3
Comparison of means for the duration of seedling phase (DSS, days) for both olive cultivars (Arbequina and MGS ASC315) considering three radiative forcing (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three projections (PR1 = 2011-2040, PR2 = 2041-2070, PR3 = 2071-2100) in Maria da Fé, MG, Brazil

There is a tendency of increase in DSS, except for TT2 and TT5 for Arbequina and TT2 and TT3 for MGSASC315, intensified toward PR3, especially in RCP 8.5 in both cultivars. More specifically, TT7 and TT8 of the Arbequina cultivar presented higher DSS in the three radiative forcing and in the three periods, around 86 days (± 0.311) for PR1 and RCP 2.6 and 97 days (± 0.919) for PR3 in RCP 8.5. Conversely, TT3 and TT4 will have the lowest DSS in radiative forcing in the short and medium term (PR1 and PR2, respectively). In addition, long-term TT1 and TT2 (PR3), especially in RCP 8.5, simulated in May and June, will cause a reduction in DSS. In the cultivar MGS ASC 315 in TT2 there was also a reduction of DSS (around 47 days) in the three RCPs throughout the projections. From TT5 to TT9, especially those simulated in September (TT5), October (TT6) and November (TT7), presented an increase in DSS throughout the projections. For both olive cultivars, the VD through DSS was shortened or elongated depending on the simulated transplanting date, like that observed by Streck et al. (2006Streck, N. A.; Lago, I.; Alberto, C. M.; Bisognin, D. A. Simulação do desenvolvimento de batata cultivar asterix em cinco cenários de mudança climática em Santa Maria, RS. Bragantia, v.65, p.693-702, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052006000400021
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052006...
) with potato cv. Asterix, Streck et al. (2012Streck, N. A.; Silva, S. D. da; Langner, J. A. Assessing the response of maize phenology under elevated temperature scenarios. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia , v.27, p.1-12, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862012000100001
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0102-77862012...
) with corn, Liu & Tao (2013Liu, Y.; Tao, F. Probabilistic change of wheat productivity and water use in China for global mean temperature change of 1º, 2º and 3 °C. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v.52, p.114-129, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-039.1
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-039.1...
) with wheat, and Streck et al. (2013Streck, N. A.; Uhlmann, L. O.; Gabriel, L. F. Leaf development of cultivated rice and weedy red rice under elevated temperature scenarios. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental , v.17, p.190-199, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013000200010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662013...
) with different rice genotypes.

Late growing seasons in autumn and early winter will increase VD and reduce DSS; and those cultivated in spring and summer will delay VD and increase DSS. This is mainly due to the fact that Tm is higher than the Tot of the cultivars equal to 14.7 ºC for MGSASC315 and 16.1 ºC for Arbequina (Lisboa et al., 2012Lisboa, P. M. M.; Martins, F. B.; Alvarenga, M. I. N.; Vieira Neto, J.; Reis, D. F. da. Desenvolvimento vegetativo de duas cultivares de oliveira na fase de muda. Ciência Rural, v.42, p.1556-1562, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012000900007
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
) and close to a cardinal temperature (TB) of 37.8 ºC (Denney et al., 1985Denney, J. O.; McEachern, G. R.; Griffiths, J. F. Modeling the thermal adaptability of the olive (Olea europaea L.) in Texas. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, v.35, p.309-327, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(85)90092-9
https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(85)900...
). The development rate increased when Tm was between Tb and Tot but decreased when it moved away from Tot and approached TB (Streck et al., 2006Streck, N. A.; Lago, I.; Alberto, C. M.; Bisognin, D. A. Simulação do desenvolvimento de batata cultivar asterix em cinco cenários de mudança climática em Santa Maria, RS. Bragantia, v.65, p.693-702, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052006000400021
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0006-87052006...
; Ruelland & Zachowski, 2010Ruelland, E.; Zachowski, A. How plants sense temperature. Environmental and Experimental Botany, v.69, p.225-232, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2010.05.011
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2010...
; Martins et al., 2014Martins, F. B.; Pereira, R. A. de A.; Pinheiro, M. V. M.; Abreu, M. C. Desenvolvimento foliar em duas cultivares de oliveira estimado por duas categorias de modelos. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v.29, p.505-514, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012001100011
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782012...
). This occurs because in olive crops, Rubisco is the sole enzyme controlling photosynthesis in the metabolic process (Taiz et al., 2018Taiz, L; Zeiger, E.; Møller, I. M.; Murphy, A. Plant physiology and development. 6.ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018. 513p.). In conditions with high Tm, the Warburg effect occurs and O2 inhibits CO2 fixation by Rubisco, thereby reducing photosynthesis, increasing photorespiration (Marenco & Lopes, 2009Marenco, R. A.; Lopes, N. F. Fisiologia vegetal: Fotossíntese, respiração, relações hídricas e nutrição mineral. 3.ed. Viçosa: Editora UFV, 2009. 486p.) and DSS. In practice, it is necessary to reduce the negative impact of increasing Tm in warmer seasons in nurseries where olive seedlings are cultivated. For this, two options can be used namely: shading screens and sprinkler irrigation (Costa & Streck, 2018Costa, D. B. da; Streck, N. A. Duração da fase de mudas em eucalipto simulada em cenários de aumento de temperatura. Ciência Florestal, v.28, p.1263-1270, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1980509833378
http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1980509833378...
).

Considering climate change projections, studies by García-Mozo et al. (2010García-Mozo, H.; Mestre, A.; Galán, C. Phenological trends in Southern Spain: A response to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , v.150, p.575-580, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.01.023
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2010...
), Tanasijevic et al. (2014Tanasijevic, L.; Todorovic, M.; Pereira, L. S.; Pizzigalli, C.; Lionello, P. Impacts of climate change on olive crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region. Agricultural Water Management, v.144, p.54-68, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05.019
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05....
) and Moriondo et al. (2015Moriondo, M.; Ferrise, R.; Trombi, G.; Brilli, L.; Dibari, C.; Bindi, M. Modelling olive trees and grapevines in a changing climate. Environmental Modelling & Software, v.72, p.387-401, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.016
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.1...
) demonstrated changes in the vegetative and reproductive development of olive crops in different regions of Europe. It has been verified that high temperatures (> 30 ºC) at the beginning of flowering cause floral abortion (García-Mozo et al., 2010; Tanasijevic et al., 2014), while during pollination and flowering affects stigma receptivity, ovule longevity and pollen tube growth, impairing fertilization and fruit formation (Garcia et al., 2018Garcia, S. R.; Santos, D. F. dos; Martins, F. B.; Torres, R. R. Aspectos climatológicos associados ao cultivo da oliveira (Olea europaea L.) em Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v.22, p.188-209, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0.56825
http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0....
). Concurrently, the duration of flowering and fruiting is shortened (Tanasijevic et al., 2014), indicating that olive crops are vulnerable to climatic changes. In addition, the increase in temperature will reduce the accumulation of chilling hours, which is required by the olive tree to interrupt dormancy, start differentiation of flower buds and have normal flowering (Santos et al., 2017aSantos, D. F. dos; Leite, R. R. M.; Martins, F. B. Avaliação de métodos de estimativa de números de horas frio para o sul e sudoeste do Paraná. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia , v.21, p.401-416, 2017a. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v21i0.52382
http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v21i0....
; Garcia et al., 2018). The insufficiency of chilling accumulation causes a series of physiological anomalies, generating irregularities in sprouting and flowering, which adversely affect the development (Santos et al., 2017a) of the olive tree.

Thus, both the vegetative development, represented by the DSS, and the reproductive development of the olive tree are vulnerable to the projected climatic changes throughout the 21st century. This corroborates the results presented by Santos et al. (2017bSantos, D. F. dos; Martins, F. B.; Torres, R. R. Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, v.21, p.77-82, 2017b. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agriambi.v21n2p77-82
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agri...
) for climatic zoning in MG, Brazil. Such information will affect the choice of the best dates for transplanting and the techniques for seedling production, development of the seedlings in projections of climatic changes, affecting the olive tree management and the success of seedlings establishment in the field.

Conclusions

  1. The increase in air temperature, reaching 3 ºC at the end of the century, will probably modify the development rate and duration of the seedling phase in the cultivars Arbequina and MGSASC315 cultivated in Maria da Fé, MG, Brazil.

  2. In colder months, there is increased vegetative development in olive crops and reduced seedling phase duration. Conversely, in warmer months, there is delayed development and longer seedling phase duration.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) for financially supporting the projects APQ-01392-13 and APQ 01258-17, and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES, process numbers 1827878 and 1489491) for granting scholarships to the 1st and 3rd authors.

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Publication Dates

  • Publication in this collection
    12 Aug 2019
  • Date of issue
    Sept 2019

History

  • Received
    10 June 2018
  • Accepted
    16 July 2019
  • Published
    31 July 2019
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