The fisheries in the reservoir of UHE-Tucuruí employ about 6.000 fishermen generating approximately R$ 4.2 million/year. There are three main target-species: Tucunaré Cichla monoculus (caught with hook and line), Pescada Plagioscion squamosissimus (caught with gill net and/or hook and line) and Mapará Hypophthalmus marginatus (caught with gill net). Published information was reviewed and data collected during two field trips in 1999 and 2000 that included interviews with community leaders and fishermen. The aims were: to get information on the reservoir fisheries and fishermen; create scenarios of fishing effort increase; and, forecast potential conflicts due to the collapse of resources. The following variables were considered: target-species landings (data records supplied by the fishermen's associations), fishing gear, fishing strategies, conflicts, fishing spot allocation systems, and income. These variables, covering a period of 10 years starting from 1999, were entered into a dynamic model, simulated with the Vensim PLE software. The results indicate that the hook and line fishery is the most profitable, and potential conflicts due to resource scarcity could occur in short time (2005). The methodology used for the simulations and risk analysis was found to be suitable for the local reality and available data set.
Risk Analysis; Precautionary Management; Inland Artisanal Fisheries; Game Theory; Tucuruí Reservoir; Tocantins river