Use of machine learning as a tool for determining fire management units in the brazilian atlantic forest

Abstract

Geoprocessing techniques are generally applied in natural disaster risk management due to their ability to integrate and visualize different sets of geographic data. The objective of this study was to evaluate the capacity of classification and regression tree (CART) to assess fire risk. MCD45A1 product of the burnt area, relative to a 16-year period (2000-2015) was used to obtain a fire occurrence map, from center points of the raster, using a kernel density approach. The resulting map was then used as a response variable for CART analysis with fire influence variables used as predictors. A total of 12 predictors were determined from several databases, including environmental, physical, and socioeconomic aspects. Rules generated by the regression process allowed to of define different risk levels, expressed in 35 management units, and used to produce a fire prediction map. Results of the regression process (r = 0.94 and r² = 0.88) demonstrate the capability of the CART algorithm in highlighting hierarchical relationships among predictors, while the model’s easy interpretability provides a solid basis for decision making. This methodology can be expanded in other environmental risk analysis studies and applied to any area of the globe on a regional scale.

Key words
non-parametric statistics; kernel density; cart algorithm; decision rules; fire prediction map