Statistical modeling of maximum temperature in Guinea

KEBE, MALICK; NADARAJAH, SARALEES

doi:10.1590/0001-3765202420230126

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GEOSCIENCES • An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc. 96 (2) • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202420230126 copy

Statistical modeling of maximum temperature in Guinea

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

A statistical analysis of maximum temperature from twelve weather stations in parts of Guinea is provided. Using maximum likelihood estimation, maximum temperature data was fitted by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Data from all of the twelve stations were adequately fit by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Return level estimates are provided. Significant trends in maximum temperature were found for four of the stations. The four stations exhibited significant positive trends at the 5% significance level.

Key words
Generalized extreme value distribution; Estimation; Maximum likelihood

Station	Count	Mean	Minimum	Maximum	Median	Standard deviation	Coefficient of variation	Skewness	Kurtosis
Kankan	27	37.952	36.4	39.3	38	0.694	0.018	-0.514	3.172
Kindia	30	35.943	34.9	37.0	35.90	0.470	0.013	0.106	3.068
Faranah	23	36.643	33.4	39.1	36.90	1.262	0.034	-0.913	4.423
Boke	30	38.043	36.0	39.2	38.20	0.840	0.022	-0.551	2.457
Conakry	30	32.490	31.1	33.9	32.55	0.659	0.020	-0.052	2.446
Koundara	33	40.448	37.6	41.8	40.60	0.810	0.020	-1.351	5.951
Kissidougou	29	34.624	33.6	36.0	34.70	0.600	0.017	0.308	2.515
Labe	31	33.748	32.3	35.4	33.70	0.672	0.020	0.367	3.205
Macenta	63	33.030	30.8	35.2	33.10	1.080	0.033	-0.260	2.485
Mamou	24	34.367	33.3	34.5	34.45	0.587	0.017	-0.077	2.418
Siguiri	21	38.476	35.5	40.3	38.60	1.091	0.028	-0.819	4.026
Zerekore	28	33.336	32.0	35.2	33.20	0.806	0.024	0.863	3.226

		$μ$	$σ$	$ξ$
Kankan	Parameter estimates	37.751	0.725	-0.404
	Standard errors	0.151	0.107	0.107
	Confidence interval (95%)	(37.454, 38.048)	(0.516, 0.935)	(-0.612, -0.195)
Kindia	Parameter estimates	35.774	0.456	-0.252
	Standard errors	0.092	0.063	0.110
	Confidence interval (95%)	(35.595, 35.954)	(0.333,0.580)	(-0.468,-0.036)
Faranah	Parameter estimates	36.289	1.339	-0.419
	Standard errors	0.301	0.206	0.100
	Confidence interval (95%)	(35.700, 36.878)	(0.936, 1.742)	(-0.616, -0.222)
Boke	Parameter estimates	37.940	0.948	-0.735
	Standard errors	0.187	0.171	0.152
	Confidence interval (95%)	(37.573, 38.307)	(0.613, 1.284)	(-1.033, -0.437)
Conakry	Parameter estimates	32.269	0.654	-0.309
	Standard errors	0.132	0.094	0.118
	Confidence interval (95%)	(32.011, 32.527)	(0.469, 0.838)	(-0.540, -0.077)
Koundara	Parameter estimates	40.267	0.864	-0.532
	Standard errors	0.161	0.117	0.089
	Confidence interval (95%)	(39.952, 40.583)	(0.634, 1.094)	(-0.707, -0.356)
Kissidougou	Parameter estimates	34.390	0.545	-0.181
	Standard errors	0.115	0.083	0.150
	Confidence interval (95%)	(34.164, 34.616)	(0.382, 0.708)	(-0.475, 0.113)
Labe	Parameter estimates	33.490	0.622	-0.188
	Standard errors	0.123	0.085	0.110
	Confidence interval (95%)	(33.249, 33.731)	(0.456, 0.788)	(-0.403, 0.028)
Macenta	Parameter estimates	32.705	1.121	-0.386
	Standard errors	0.155	0.112	0.081
	Confidence interval (95%)	(32.402,33.009)	(0.901, 1.341)	(-0.544, -0.228)
Mamou	Parameter estimates	34.179	0.586	-0.337
	Standard errors	0.133	0.097	0.148
	Confidence interval (95%)	(33.918, 34.440)	(0.397, 0.775)	(-0.627, -0.047)
Siguiri	Parameter estimates	38.217	1.157	-0.500
	Standard errors	0.273	0.202	0.133
	Confidence interval (95%)	(37.681, 38.753)	(0.760, 1.554)	(-0.761, 0.240)
Zerekore	Parameter estimates	32.974	0.617	0.005
	Standard errors	0.132	0.096	0.145
	Confidence interval (95%)	(32.716,33.232)	(0.429, 0.804)	(-0.279, 0.288)

Station	Trend	$\hat{a}$ (se)	$\hat{b}$ (se)	$p$ -value
Kindia	Positive	35.265 (0.132)	0.351 (0.008)	0.004
Faranah	Positive	35.383 (0.320)	0.094 (0.01)	0.000
Labe	Positive	32.896 (0.210)	0.041 (0.011)	0.003
Kankan	Positive	37.269 (0.189)	0.039 (0.009)	0.001

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[1] Correspondence to: Saralees Nadarajah E-mail: Saralees.Nadarajah@manchester.ac.uk