Trend of leprosy detection rate in Brazil, 1990 to 2016

Souza, Carlos Dornels Freire de; Santos, Franklin Gerônimo Bispo; Leal, Thiago Cavalcanti; Paiva, João Paulo Silva de

doi:10.1016/j.abd.2018.10.003

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Tropical/Infectoparasitary Dermatology • An. Bras. Dermatol. 94 (5) • Nov-Dec 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.abd.2018.10.003 copy

Trend of leprosy detection rate in Brazil, 1990 to 2016^☆ ☆ How to cite this article: Souza CDF, Santos FGB, Leal TC, Paiva JP. Trend of leprosy detection rate in Brazil, 1990 to 2016. An Bras Dermatol. 2019;94:603-7. ^☆☆ ☆☆ Study conducted at the Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil.

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Abstract

The objective of this study was to describe the trend of detection of the disease in Brazil from 1990 to 2016. The joinpoint regression model was used. There was a significant trend of decreased detection in the country (average annual percent change −1.8%) and in the South (average annual percent change = −3.5%) and Southeast regions (average annual percent change = −4.5%). The Northeast (average annual percent change = 0.2%), the Central-West (average annual percent change = −1.5%), and the North (average annual percent change = −2.6%) showed a stationary trend (p > 0.05). Eleven states showed a decreasing trend. Alagoas (average annual percent change = 2.1%) and Rio Grande do Norte (average annual percent change = 1.4%) presented significant increase (p < 0.001). The heterogeneous pattern of trend between regions and states shows that efforts are needed to eliminate the disease.

KEYWORDS
Epidemiology; Leprosy; Mycobacterium leprae

Brazil/Regions/States	Rate per 100,000 inhabitants			AAPC	95% CI	Trend
	1990	2016	Average
Brazil	19.96	12.23	22.13	-1.8^a a Statistically significant.	-2.3 to -1.4	Decreasing
North	56.81	28.70	58.92	-2.6	-4.6 to 0.5	Stationary
Rondônia	53.38	26.63	75.71	-2.0^a a Statistically significant.	-3.9 to 0.0	Decreasing
Acre	87.63	14.20	54.30	-6.7^a a Statistically significant.	-7.9 to -5.5	Decreasing
Amazonas	76.33	11.20	40.11	-6.9^a a Statistically significant.	-7.8 to -5.9	Decreasing
Roraima	49.52	16.34	54.19	-4.7^a a Statistically significant.	-7.8 to -1.4	Decreasing
Pará	45.48	30.43	61.92	-1.3	-4.8 to 2.4	Stationary
Amapá	33.43	11.50	31.57	-3.7	-11.6 to 4.8	Stationary
Tocantins	72.06	88.13	85.05	0.5	-3.4 to 4.6	Stationary
Northeast	19.60	19.30	28.40	0.2	-0.3 to 0.7	Stationary
Maranhão	44.29	47.43	67.15	0.4	-0.5 to 1.2	Stationary
Piauí	32.18	27.64	45.78	-0.6	-1.6 to 0.5	Stationary
Ceará	24.10	18.94	28.42	-0.9^a a Statistically significant.	-1.5 to -0.2	Decreasing
Rio Grande do Norte	4.40	5.70	8.23	1.4^a a Statistically significant.	0.1 to 2.7	Increasing
Paraíba	9.56	9.63	17.99	0.6	-1.7 to 2.8	Stationary
Pernambuco	26.20	19.72	33.56	-0.2	-1.5 to 1.0	Stationary
Alagoas	5.89	8.13	10.62	2.1^a a Statistically significant.	0.1 to 4.2	Increasing
Sergipe	11.46	13.73	22.48	1.0	-1.6 to 3.6	Stationary
Bahia	9.92	13.60	16.46	1.7	-0.6 to 4.1	Stationary
Central-West	49.79	30.02	55.22	-1.5	-3.0 to 0.9	Stationary
Mato Grosso do Sul	28.37	15.21	27.70	0.3	-2.3 to 3.0	Stationary
Mato Grosso	101.65	80.62	113.33	-0.5	-3.0 to 2.0	Stationary
Goiás	44.34	21.69	54.07	-2.3	-5.3 to 0.7	Stationary
Distrito Federal	21.80	5.91	13.96	-5.1^a a Statistically significant.	-5.8 to -4.3	Decreasing
Southeast	14.47	4.17	11.50	-4.5^a a Statistically significant.	-5.1 to -4.0	Decreasing
Minas Gerais	12.42	5.34	13.00	-4.3^a a Statistically significant.	-5.1 to -3.4	Decreasing
Espírito Santo	36.40	10.97	33.54	0.6	-9.5 to 11.8	Stationary
Rio de Janeiro	21.88	4.33	17.99	-6.3^a a Statistically significant.	-9.5 to -3.0	Decreasing
São Paulo	10.67	3.95	6.63	-4.8^a a Statistically significant.	-5.4 to -4.1	Decreasing
South	7.25	2.84	6.49	-3.5^a a Statistically significant.	-5.7 to -1.2	Decreasing
Paraná	3.43	5.20	12.95	-3.6^a a Statistically significant.	-6.4 to -0.8	Decreasing
Santa Catarina	6.63	2.13	3.90	-4.1^a a Statistically significant.	-7.3 to -0.7	Decreasing
Rio Grande do Sul	1.82	0.92	1.77	-2.3^a a Statistically significant.	-3.2 to -1.5	Decreasing

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[1] * Corresponding author. E-mail:carlos.freire@arapiraca.ufal.br (C.D. Souza).