Rainfall trends for the State of Paraná: present and future climate

This paper analyzes the variability and the precipitation trend of the State of Paraná, in Brazil. For that, monthly precipitation data belonging to 24 precipitation stations in a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed and they were compared with projections of precipitation for the years 2016-2050. These data were simulated by Eta/Miroc5 for RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies CPTEC/INPE and the historical data of precipitation were taken from National Water Agency (ANA). The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trends and magnitudes, respectively. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare the median of the historical series (1980-2010) with the simulated series (2016-2050) and the comparison of the means between the two series was performed by Test t. The results draw attention to the great variability and significant changes in the monthly average rainfall that may occur, if the climate change scenarios that were considered become a reality in the near future.

Keywords:
climate changes; climate models; precipitation variability.

Authorship

Luciana Espindula de Quadros ^**Corresponding author: Luciana Espindula de Quadros, e-mail: luciana.quadros@ifpr.edu.br

Instituto Federal do Paraná (IFPR), Foz do Iguaçu, PR, Brasil. E-mail: luciana.quadros@ifpr.edu.brInstituto Federal do ParanáBrazilFoz do Iguaçu, PR, BrazilInstituto Federal do Paraná (IFPR), Foz do Iguaçu, PR, Brasil. E-mail: luciana.quadros@ifpr.edu.br

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4967-0975

Eloy Lemos de Mello

Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE), Cascavel, PR, Brasil. E-mail: eloymello@gmail.com, benedito.gomes@unioeste.br, fer.crisaraujo@yahoo.com.br Universidade Estadual do Oeste do ParanáBrazilCascavel, PR, BrazilUniversidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE), Cascavel, PR, Brasil. E-mail: eloymello@gmail.com, benedito.gomes@unioeste.br, fer.crisaraujo@yahoo.com.br

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0513-5073

Benedito Martins Gomes

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0223-4049

Fernanda Cristina Araujo

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8025-7727

^*Corresponding author: Luciana Espindula de Quadros, e-mail: luciana.quadros@ifpr.edu.br

SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Figures | Tables | Formulas

Figures (4)
Tables (2)
Formulas (9)

	Historical data				Simulated data set		Distance between them (km)
N◦	Stations	Latitude	Longitude	Elevation	Latitude	Longitude	Distance between them (km)
1	2454018	-24.9061	-54.2014	243	-25.000	-54.2	10.41
2	2653016	-26.0644	-53.3622	557	-26.000	-53.4	8.08
3	2453056	-24.9628	-53.2439	697	-25.000	-53.2	6.05
4	2453008	-24.0147	-53.4397	427	-23.999	-53.4	4.39
5	2353010	-23.0817	-53.4811	349	-22.999	-53.4	12.37
6	2552044	-25.9833	-52.5667	700	-26.000	-52.6	3.81
7	2452019	-24.8858	-52.4739	741	-24.800	-52.4	12.06
8	2452029	-24.0906	-52.6214	582	-23.999	-52.6	10.37
9	2352052	-23.0831	-52.6667	450	-22.999	-52.6	11.55
10	2551019	-25.85	-51.7667	1245	-25.800	-51.8	6.46
11	2451010	-24.9333	-51.8833	900	-25.000	-51.8	11.19
12	2451049	-24.1144	-51.7342	618	-24.199	-51.8	11.5
13	2351065	-23.0403	-51.8056	485	-22.999	-51.8	4.6
14	2651005	-26.0306	-51.1419	840	-26.000	-51.199	6.64
15	2450049	-24.9575	-50.8917	743	-25.000	-50.799	10.47
16	2351041	-23.9831	-51.0831	1011	-23.999	-50.999	8.73
17	2251039	-22.8517	-51.0319	370	-22.799	-50.999	6.47
18	2650005	-26.0833	-50.3167	770	-26.000	-50.399	12.36
19	2450021	-24.9831	-50.2667	950	-25.000	-50.199	7.08
20	2350041	-23.9167	-50.25	600	-23.999	-50.199	10.48
21	2250033	-22.9653	-50.2661	423	-22.999	-50.199	7.82
22	2549003	-25.95	-49.3931	810	-26.000	-49.399	5.57
23	2449006	-24.8	-49.2833	270	-24.800	-49.199	8.52
24	2548040	-25.0833	-48.8333	670	-25.000	-48.799	9.86

	Mann-Kendall		Sen's slope		Mann-Whitney		Test t
	p-value increasing	p-value decreasing	mm month^-1		Median	p-value	Mean	Increment	p-value
1	0.501	0.498	0.0000	Hist1	130.20	0.992	142.8	+0.42%	0.930
				Fut 1	121.90		143.4
2	0.999	0.000*	-0.0605	Hist2	160.80	0.000*	177	-19.66%	0.000*
				Fut 2	120.77		142.2
3	0.083	0.917	0.0218	Hist3	153.10	0.204	168	+5.95%	0.195
				Fut 3	154.92		178
4	0.243	0.757	0.0089	Hist4	122.65	0.584	136.6	+2.56%	0.590
				Fut 4	121.91		140.1
5	0.153	0.846	0.0137	Hist5	115.00	0.256	136.8	+5.19%	0.295
				Fut 5	121.00		143.9
6	0.000*	1.000	0.0967	Hist6	153.15	0.000*	169	+34.32%	0.000*
				Fut 6	207.08		227
7	0.000*	1.000	0.1307	Hist7	138.70	0.000*	157	+46.49%	0.000*
				Fut 7	204.38		230
8	0.399	0.600	0.0031	Hist8	122.30	0.963	138.9	+1.01%	0.821
				Fut 8	121.37		140.3
9	0.000*	0.999	0.0479	Hist9	100.55	0.000*	116.1	+21.7%	0.000*
				Fut 9	121.77		141.3
10	0.000*	1.000	0.1273	Hist10	167.35	0.000*	180	+39.44%	0.000*
				Fut 10	229.32		251
11	0.995	0.004*	-0.0369	Hist11	144.70	0.001*	164.7	-12.51%	0.003*
				Fut 11	122.00		144.1
12	0.000*	1.000	0.1642	Hist12	119.75	0.000*	131.5	+71.86%	0.000*
				Fut 12	197.46		226
13	0.000*	0.999	0.0515	Hist13	103.10	0.000*	120.4	+23.42%	0.000*
				Fut 13	128.94		148.6
14	0.000*	1.000	0.1186	Hist14	134.15	0.000*	148.8	+46.5%	0.000*
				Fut 14	201.88		218
15	0.000*	1.000	0.1641	Hist15	122.10	0.000*	139.5	+68.46%	0.000*
				Fut 15	212.52		235
16	0.451	0.549	0.0018	Hist16	133.20	0.508	151	-2.65%	0.551
				Fut 16	121.85		147
17	0.000*	1.000	0.1612	Hist17	93.55	0.000*	114.5	+79.91%	0.000*
				Fut 17	183.20		206
18	0.000*	1.000	0.1372	Hist18	112.65	0.000*	128.4	+57.32%	0.000*
				Fut 18	193.35		202
19	0.000*	0.999	0.0443	Hist19	110.65	0.011*	123.5	+15.46%	0.003*
				Fut 19	121.61		142.6
20	0.009*	0.991	0.0319	Hist20	112.70	0.063	129.1	+10.61%	0.043*
				Fut 20	119.89		142.8
21	0.000*	0.999	0.0428	Hist21	100.80	0.001*	116.9	+19.16%	0.000*
				Fut 21	121.83		139.3
22	0.064	0.935	0.0192	Hist22	120.50	0.514	129.4	+6.57%	0.164
				Fut 22	121.38		137.9
23	0.000*	1.000	0.1896	Hist23	101.15	0.000*	113.8	+89.81%	0.000*
				Fut 23	197.23		216
24	0.000*	1.000	0.0794	Hist24	115.70	0.000*	129.0	+27.36%	0.000*
				Fut 24	152.82		164.3