The aim of this paper was to determine the economic viability and cultivation risk in northern Espírito Santo State and compare the economic indices with experimental irrigation data and ammonium sulfate doses. The experiment was carried out at Calima Agricola S.A. farm, in Linhares, ES. Two varieties were evaluated separately, Golden and UENF Caliman 01, in five irrigation levels, combined with four ammonium sulfate doses. The determination of indices and risks of papaya cultivation utilized the calculation of net present value, internal rate of return, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo method. The irrigation treatments showed significant statistical differences (p < 0.05) in relation to productivity. The ammonium sulfate and its interactions with applied irrigation depths did not present significant differences (p < 0.05) for the same variable. By means of a Monte Carlo simulation (triangular simulation), the probability of obtaining negative net present value is 63.2 and 81.4% for Golden and UENF Caliman 01, respectively.
net present value; internal rate of return; papaya
