Effects of New Stadiums on Attendance of Brazilian Football Clubs

Dantas, Marke Geisy da Silva; Sampaio, Luciano Menezes Bezerra

doi:10.15728/bbr.2022.1287.en

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Article • BBR, Braz. Bus. Rev. 21 (3) • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.15728/bbr.2022.1287.en copy

Effects of New Stadiums on Attendance of Brazilian Football Clubs

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to analyze the impact of stadium construction and reformation on Brazilian soccer clubs' average attendence. Two methodologies were used: synthetic control and Differences-in-Differences (DD) models. The clubs were divided into treated, nine with new stadiums, and control, with fourteen teams that continued in old stadiums. The synthetic control model indicated that only the attendence average for the team Palmeiras showed any significant impact after the new arena inauguration, which could explain the positive effect on the treated group in the DD model. However, there is also statistical significance when Palmeiras is removed from this group. We concluded that there was a significant impact on attendence averages for Brazilian clubs that built private stadiums, and no impact on clubs that play in public stadiums, despite the government investment made.

KEYWORDS:
Attendance Average; 2014 World Cup Stadiums; Synthetic Control; Differences-in-Differences; Brazilian Clubs

Stadium	Home Club	Date of (re) Opening	First Year	2014 World Cup Stadium?
Arena do Grêmio	Grêmio	12/08/2012	2013	No
Mineirão	Cruzeiro	02/03/2013	2013	Yes
Arena Fonte Nova	Bahia	04/07/2013	2013	Yes
Maracanã	Flamengo	04/27/2013	2013	Yes
Maracanã	Fluminense	04/27/2013	2013	Yes
Estádio Beira-Rio	Internacional	02/15/2014	2014	Yes
Arena da Baixada	Athletico-PR	05/14/2014	2014	Yes
Neo Química Arena	Corinthians	05/18/2014	2014	Yes
Allianz Parque	Palmeiras	11/19/2014	2014	No

Year	Attendance Average	Points Percentage (%)	Players Value (€)	CBF Ranking	Total Assets (R$)
2008	15,560	50.30	-	-	-
2009	17,104	48.32	32,199,130	-	-
2010	13,714	48.32	40,662,609	-	207,867,651
2011	13,964	47.56	37,901,304	2,553	297,748,728
2012	12,915	48.51	39,015,435	11,579	350,463,770
2013	14,753	48.55	40,863,478	11,293	327,466,325
2014	15,042	48.70	31,407,826	10,900	340,448,054
2015	16,290	48.05	52,223,043	10,693	362,650,936
2016	14,731	49.31	48,913,043	10,510	379,692,271
2017	16,099	46.19	45,066,522	10,544	376,413,963
2018	16,800	47.29	49,087,826	10,359	374,501,861
2019	18,842	48.47	53,433,913	10,223	402,511,867

Clubs	APR	BAH	COR	CRU	FLA	FLU	GRE	INT	PAL
Atlético-GO	0.001	0.429	-	0.026	-	0.001	0.013	0.012	0.021
Atlético-MG	0.182	-	-	0.087	0.591	0.001	0.014	0.346	0.160
Avaí	0.001	0.001	-	0.028	-	0.001	0.014	0.012	0.022
Botafogo	0.116	0.001	-	0.043	-	0.001	0.014	0.011	0.039
Coritiba	0.001	0.278	-	0.031	-	0.001	0.013	0.009	0.030
Figueirense	0.001	-	-	0.027	-	0.001	0.013	0.013	0.020
Goiás	0.001	0.001	-	0.027	-	0.001	0.013	0.008	0.019
Paraná	0.352	0.004	-	0.030	-	0.001	0.013	0.010	0.027
Ponte Preta	0.001	0.001	-	0.028	-	0.001	0.013	0.013	0.028
Santos	-	0.001	-	0.041	0.001	0.048	0.039	0.186	0.133
São Paulo	0.029	-	1	0.468	0.331	0.338	0.807	0.351	0.404
Sport Recife	0.001	0.282	-	0.031	-	0.001	0.014	0.014	0.031
Vasco	0.307	0.001	-	0.105	0.076	0.607	0.005	0.007	0.045
Vitória	0.005	0.001	-	0.028	-	0.001	0.013	0.008	0.021

Clubs	Variables	Treated	Synthetic	Weight
Athletico-PR	Points Percentage (%)	48.10	47.78	0.257
	CBF Ranking	8,486	8,398	0.272
	Players Value (€ millions)	22.98	27.48	0.309
	Total Assets (€ millions)	345.97	314.80	0.161
Bahia	Points Percentage (%)	45.79	45.80	0.039
	CBF Ranking	5,434	5,430	0.029
	Players Value (€ millions)	13.35	14.53	0.004
	Total Assets (€ millions)	74.23	87.38	0.928
Corinthians	Points Percentage (%)	55.99	54.09	0.494
	CBF Ranking	10,956	10,202	0.001
	Players Value (€ millions)	60.90	50.25	0.135
	Total Assets (€ milllions)	965.05	930.56	0.370
Cruzeiro	Points Percentage (%)	51.40	51.40	0.236
	CBF Ranking	7,605	7,716	0.391
	Players Value (€ millions)	57.26	57.27	0.373
	Total Assets (€ millions)	355.26	355.19	0.000
Flamengo	Points Percentage (%)	50.17	50.14	0.163
	CBF Ranking	8,280	7,491	0.048
	Players Value (€ millions)	59.50	60.78	0.786
	Total Assets (€ millions)	592.07	591.44	0.003
Fluminense	Points Percentage (%)	52.98	52.55	0.047
	CBF Ranking	9,025	8,994	0.075
	Players Value (€ millions)	53.57	55.11	0.001
	Total Assets (€ milllions)	375.94	326.13	0.877
Grêmio	Points Percentage (%)	54.21	54.21	0.137
	CBF Ranking	8,334	8,334	0.000
	Players Value (€ millions)	51.75	76.57	0.000
	Total Assets (€ millions)	228.31	421.37	0.863
Internacional	Points Percentage (%)	49.27	49.27	0.792
	CBF Ranking	10,129	10,222	0.110
	Players Value (€ millions)	71.01	69.83	0.000
	Total Assets (€ millions)	725.91	469.96	0.098
Palmeiras	Points Percentage (%)	49.71	49.71	0.264
	CBF Ranking	9,767	9,727	0.000
	Players Value (€ millions)	54.89	64.21	0.693
	Total Assets (€ millions)	384.17	384.03	0.043

Clubs	MSPE	p-value
Athletico-PR	1.0908	0.53
Bahia	1.2717	0.67
Corinthians	1.3351	0.40
Cruzeiro	0.9326	0.73
Flamengo	3.5547	0.27
Fluminense	0.8155	0.73
Grêmio	1.5454	0.60
Internacional	0.8059	0.73
Palmeiras	20.0039	0.07^*

	Group 1 (2013)		Group 2 (2014)
Before	Attendance Average	p-value	Attendance Average	p-value
Control (C)	≅13,000		≅14,000
Treated (T)	≅19,000		≅17,000
A = Diff (T-C)	6,184	0.003^***	2,902	0.133
After	Attendance Average	p-value	Attendance Average	p-value
Control (C)	≅14,000		≅14,000
Treated (T)	≅24,000		≅25,000
B = Diff (T-C)	9,817	0.000^***	10,429	0.000^***
Diff-in-Diff (B-A)	3,632	0.184	7,527	0.006^***
Observations	264		264
R²	0.14		0.12

	Group 1 (2013)			Group 2 (2014)
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
Treated	6,184^***	0.4310^***	0.0860	2,902^*	0.2665^**	-0.4131^**
	(2,078)	(0.1301)	(0.1921)	(1,498)	(0.1130)	(0.1576)
Time	920	0.0139	-0.0226	402	-0.0230	-0.1736^*
	(1,072)	(0.0870)	(0.1126)	(1,197)	(0.0888)	(0.0895)
Treated^*Time	3,633	0.2308	0.3383^*	7,528^***	0.4398^***	0.6123^***
	(2,979)	(0.0625)	(0.2025)	(2,417)	(0.1520)	(0.1720)
Ln Points Perc.			0.3894^***			0.3246^**
			(0.1272)			(0.1315)
Ln CBF Ranking			-0.0452			-0.0173
			(0.0593)			(0.0522)
Ln Players Value			0.2820^***			0.3238^***
			(0.0455)			(0.0472)
Ln Total Assets			0.1767^***			0.1713^***
			(0.0385)			(0.0425)
Constant	13,160^***	9.3309^***	0.0579	13,793^***	9.3649^***	-0.3989
	(728)	(0.0625)	(0.6960)	(746)	(0.0589)	(0.7522)
Dependent Variable	Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average	Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average
Period	2008/2019	2008/2019	2011/2019	2008/2019	2008/2019	2011/2019
Observations	264	264	198	264	264	198
R²	0.1395	0.1200	0.5845	0.1169	0.1031	0.5678

	Group 1 (2013)		Group 2 (2014)
Before	Attendance Average	p-value	Attendance Average	p-value
Control (C)	≅13,000		≅14,000
Treated (T)	≅19,000		≅17,000
A = Diff (T-C)	6,242	0.003^***	3,701	0.094^*
After	Attendance Average	p-value	Attendance Average	p-value
Control (C)	≅13,000		≅14,000
Treated (T)	≅24,000		≅23,000
B = Diff (T-C)	11,000	0.000^***	9,005	0.000^***
Diff-in-Diff (B-A)	4,328	0.109	5,303	0.090^*
Observations	252		252
R²	0.16		0.08

	Group 1 (2013)			Group 2 (2014)
	Model 7	Model 8	Model 9	Model 10	Model 11	Model 12
Treated	6,242^***	0.4432^***	0.0841	3,701^**	0.2935^**	-0.4486^**
	(2,093)	(0.1317)	(0.1918)	(1,811)	(0.1386)	(0.2003)
Time	224	-0.0223	-0.0423	402	-0.0230	-0.1690^*
	(1,085)	(0.0896)	(0.1163)	(1,197)	(0.0888)	(0.0902)
Treated^*Time	4,328	0.2669	0.3704^*	5,303^*	0.3428^*	0.5736^***
	(2,985)	(0.1615)	(0.2015)	(2,860)	(0.1803)	(0.2126)
Constant	13,101^***	9.3187^***	0.4159	13,793^***	9.3649^***	-0.4428
	(767)	(0.0657)	(0.7206)	(746)	(0.0589)	(0.7767)
Dependent Variable	Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average	Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average	Ln Attendance Average
Control Variables	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes
Period	2008/2019	2008/2019	2011/2019	2008/2019	2008/2019	2011/2019
Observations	252	252	189	252	252	189
R²	0.1604	0.1382	0.5802	0.0768	0.0718	0.5500

Diff-in-Diff Comparison	With Palmeiras		Without Palmeiras
Diff-in-Diff Comparison	Weight	Mean Estimator	Weight	Mean Estimator
Earlier T vs. Later C	0,019	8.124	0,017	9.517
Later T vs. Earlier C	0,023	10.973	0,020	9.910
T vs. Never treated	0,958	6.782	0,963	5.567
Estimativa Diff-in-diff		6.904		5.719

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