Abstract
Agriculture is recognized as the driving force of economic growth, especially in developing economies. It plays a crucial role in Iran’s economy especially during economic sanctions as it is a source of income for rural people, food security, job creation, and foreign exchange earnings. The present study investigates the impact of government spending, trade openness, and terms of trade on agricultural growth in Iran using annual data for the period 1978-2021 by application of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The results confirmed asymmetry in the impact of all three variables of interest on agricultural growth. In other words, the superiority of the nonlinear specification in explaining the relationships between variables was confirmed. To be specific, a positive and negative shock to government spending affects sector growth by 0.18 and -0.05 percent, respectively in the long run. The same finding was found for trade openness with 0.22 and -0.11 impact coefficients for positive and negative shocks, respectively. Moreover, we could not find significant impact for terms of trade.
Keywords:
agriculture; trade; Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model; Iran