Abstract
Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis (LLNM) is common in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (PTC) and is associated with a poor prognosis. LLNM without central lymph node metastasis as skip metastasis is not common. We aimed to investigate clinicopathologic and sonographic risk factors for skip metastasis in PTC patients, and to establish a nomogram for predicting the possibility of skip metastasis in order to determine the therapeutic strategy. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 1037 PTC patients who underwent surgery from 2016 to 2020 at a single institution. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the clinicopathologic and preoperative sonographic risk factors of skip metastasis. A nomogram including the risk factors for predicting skip metastasis was further developed and validated. The incidence of skip metastasis was 10.7%. The univariate and multivariate analyses suggested that gender (p = 0.001), tumor location (p = 0.000), extrathyroidal extension (p = 0.000), and calcification (p = 0.000) were independent risk factors. For papillary thyroid microcarcinoma, tumor location (p = 0.000) and calcification (p = 0.001) were independent risk factors. A nomogram according to the clinicopathologic and sonographic predictors was developed. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that AUC was 0.824 and had an excellent consistency. The calibration plot analysis showed a good performance and clinical utility of the model. Decision curve analysis revealed it was clinically useful. A nomogram for predicting the probability of skip metastasis was developed, which exhibited a favorable predictive value and consistency. For the female PTC patient, tumor located at the upper pole is more likely to have skip metastasis. Surgeons and sonographers should pay close attention to the patients who have the risk factors.
Evidence level:
This article’s evidence level is 3. Level 3 evidence is derived from nonrandomized, controlled clinical trials. In this study, patients who receive an intervention are compared to a control group. Authors may detect a statistically significant and clinically relevant outcome.
Keywords
Papillary thyroid carcinoma; Skip metastasis; Ultrasonography; Nomogram
Highlights
A few studies have focused on skip metastasis, and the clinical and pathological risk factors remain uncertain. Some researchers have also proposed different models for predicting its occurrence, but their models were only based on the clinicopathologic characteristics, and none of them included US features. In this study, we retrospectively examined the incidence and related clinicopathologic and US characteristics of skip metastasis in PTC and papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.
We established a nomogram for predicting the possibility of skip metastasis according to theclinicopathological and US features.
The number of patients in this study is 1037, this sample is relatively larger than other study. The results of our study might be less bias.
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