Political Institutions, Electoral Systems, and Party Stability in 40 Democracies Including Brazil

Oliveira, Augusto Neftali Corte de

doi:10.1590/1981-3821202300020004

Augusto Neftali Corte de Oliveira

Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul. School of the Humanities. Graduate Program in Sociology and Political Science. Porto Alegre/RS, Brazil

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5615-8187

Correspondence: ancolive@gmail.com

Source: Elaborated by the author, based on , models A, B, C, and D (^Appendix Appendix 01. Models All models were generated using the Party Stability in 40 Democracies database (X, X). (Provided in the submission). Table 03 Model A B C D Regression GEE GEE GEE GEE Dependent SPV SPV SPV SPV Coefficient Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Federalism 0.81 (0.11) 0.88 (0.14) 0.75a (0.11) 0.86 (0.13) Parliamentarianism 0.85 (0.13) 1.32 (0.27) 1.26 (0.22) 1.19 (0.23) Semi-presidential. 1.09 (0.23) 1.82* (0.46) 1.79* (0.49) 1.48 (0.38) Parliament (Log) 0.98 (0.52) 0.44 (0.27) 0.56 (0.32) 0.54 (0.32) Population (Log) 1.11 (0.11) 1.38* (0.17) 1.42** (0.17) 1.37* (0.18) Diversity 1.51 (0.56) 2.22* (0.74) 2.01* (0.57) 2.09* (0.63) Magnitude 1.04*** (0.00) Plurality 0.22*** (0.06) Mixed 2.52* (0.98) Preferential 3.46*** (0.87) Proportional 5.70*** (1.46) Strong 0.18*** (0.04) Moderate 0.66** (0.08) Constant 0.06** (0.05) 0.01** (0.01) 0.00*** (0.00) 0.01** (0.01) Wald Chi2 60.66*** 47.34*** 102.79*** 74.60*** Pearson Chi2 283.39 285.20 274.32 286.16 Estimator Semi Robust Semi Robust Semi Robust Semi Robust Cases 280 280 280 280 Groups 40 40 40 40 Periods 7 7 7 7 Source: Elabored by the author, based on Stability in 40 Democracies18. Notes: Significance at (a) level < 0.10 *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001. GEE logarithmic link, gamma distribution, and independent correlation (STATA 14). Table 04 Descriptive statistics of electoral party variation (EPV) by country Country Observations Average Minimum Maximum Amplitude Standard Deviation Germany 7 0.56 0.01 1.37 1.36 0.53 Argentina 7 0.88 0.01 1.59 1.58 0.62 Austria 7 0.62 0.12 1.08 0.96 0.39 Australia 7 0.19 0.01 0.43 0.42 0.13 Bolivia 7 0.83 0.15 3.15 3.00 1.09 Brazil 7 1.64 0.38 3.95 3.57 1.28 Bulgaria 7 1.20 0.43 2.06 1.63 0.61 Belgium 7 0.81 0.20 1.45 1.25 0.47 Canada 7 0.17 0.03 0.43 0.40 0.15 Chile 7 0.36 0.03 1.28 1.25 0.41 Colombia 7 1.43 0.08 4.96 4.88 1.70 South Korea 7 0.56 0.07 1.28 1.21 0.42 Costa Rica 7 1.15 0.13 2.84 2.71 0.93 Denmark 7 0.26 0.01 0.60 0.59 0.22 El Salvador 7 0.62 0.05 1.28 1.23 0.49 Slovakia 7 1.71 0.48 3.54 3.06 0.13 Spain 7 0.76 0.09 2.49 2.40 0.84 United States 7 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.02 Finland 7 0.51 0.10 2.11 2.01 0.72 France 7 1.11 0.25 2.49 2.24 0.77 Ghana 7 0.23 0.03 0.96 0.93 0.32 Greece 7 0.64 0.03 2.05 2.02 0.68 Hungary 7 0.68 0.02 2.24 2.22 0.81 Ireland 7 0.61 0.09 1.80 1.71 0.60 Israel 7 1.44 0.22 3.73 3.51 0.11 Italy 7 1.16 0.41 1.91 1.50 0.60 Japan 7 0.63 0.04 1.73 1.69 0.66 Mexico 7 0.71 0.19 1.99 1.80 0.66 Norway 7 0.70 0.21 1.24 1.03 0.37 New Zealand 7 0.30 0.03 1.12 1.09 0.37 Netherlands 7 1.18 0.70 2.62 1.92 0.65 Poland 7 1.62 0.09 5.22 5.13 1.77 Portugal 7 0.26 0.01 0.70 0.69 0.27 United Kingdom 7 0.28 0.04 1.04 1.00 0.34 Romania 7 1.04 0.03 1.60 1.57 0.52 Sweden 7 0.44 0.03 0.93 0.90 0.37 Switzerland 7 0.57 0.17 0.92 0.75 0.23 Czechia 7 0.88 0.08 2.85 2.77 0.92 Uruguay 7 0.48 0.01 0.80 0.79 0.27 India 7 1.00 0.02 3.09 3.07 1.10 Total 280 0.76 0.01 5.22 5.21 0.82 Source: Elabored by the author, based on Stability in 40 Democracies19. ).

Model	Factors	EPV	Z
B (h2)	Plurality vs. Non-plurality	-0.65 (0.07)	-8.24***
C (h3)	Preferential vs. Plurality	0.26 (0.12)	2.07
	Mixed vs. Plurality	0.43 (0.08)	5.26***
	Proportional vs. Plurality	0.83 (0.08)	10.16***
	Mixed vs. Preferential	0.16 (0.14)	1.12
	Proportional vs. Preferential	0.56 (0.14)	3.89**
	Proportional vs. Mixed	0.39 (0.11)	3.53**
D (h4)	Moderate vs. Strong	0.48 (0.07)	6.34***
	Feeble vs. Strong	0.83 (0.09)	8.88***
	Feeble vs. Moderate	0.34 (0.11)	3.13**

^appendix Appendix 01. Models All models were generated using the Party Stability in 40 Democracies database (X, X). (Provided in the submission). Table 03 Model A B C D Regression GEE GEE GEE GEE Dependent SPV SPV SPV SPV Coefficient Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Federalism 0.81 (0.11) 0.88 (0.14) 0.75a (0.11) 0.86 (0.13) Parliamentarianism 0.85 (0.13) 1.32 (0.27) 1.26 (0.22) 1.19 (0.23) Semi-presidential. 1.09 (0.23) 1.82* (0.46) 1.79* (0.49) 1.48 (0.38) Parliament (Log) 0.98 (0.52) 0.44 (0.27) 0.56 (0.32) 0.54 (0.32) Population (Log) 1.11 (0.11) 1.38* (0.17) 1.42** (0.17) 1.37* (0.18) Diversity 1.51 (0.56) 2.22* (0.74) 2.01* (0.57) 2.09* (0.63) Magnitude 1.04*** (0.00) Plurality 0.22*** (0.06) Mixed 2.52* (0.98) Preferential 3.46*** (0.87) Proportional 5.70*** (1.46) Strong 0.18*** (0.04) Moderate 0.66** (0.08) Constant 0.06** (0.05) 0.01** (0.01) 0.00*** (0.00) 0.01** (0.01) Wald Chi2 60.66*** 47.34*** 102.79*** 74.60*** Pearson Chi2 283.39 285.20 274.32 286.16 Estimator Semi Robust Semi Robust Semi Robust Semi Robust Cases 280 280 280 280 Groups 40 40 40 40 Periods 7 7 7 7 Source: Elabored by the author, based on Stability in 40 Democracies18. Notes: Significance at (a) level < 0.10 *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001. GEE logarithmic link, gamma distribution, and independent correlation (STATA 14). Table 04 Descriptive statistics of electoral party variation (EPV) by country Country Observations Average Minimum Maximum Amplitude Standard Deviation Germany 7 0.56 0.01 1.37 1.36 0.53 Argentina 7 0.88 0.01 1.59 1.58 0.62 Austria 7 0.62 0.12 1.08 0.96 0.39 Australia 7 0.19 0.01 0.43 0.42 0.13 Bolivia 7 0.83 0.15 3.15 3.00 1.09 Brazil 7 1.64 0.38 3.95 3.57 1.28 Bulgaria 7 1.20 0.43 2.06 1.63 0.61 Belgium 7 0.81 0.20 1.45 1.25 0.47 Canada 7 0.17 0.03 0.43 0.40 0.15 Chile 7 0.36 0.03 1.28 1.25 0.41 Colombia 7 1.43 0.08 4.96 4.88 1.70 South Korea 7 0.56 0.07 1.28 1.21 0.42 Costa Rica 7 1.15 0.13 2.84 2.71 0.93 Denmark 7 0.26 0.01 0.60 0.59 0.22 El Salvador 7 0.62 0.05 1.28 1.23 0.49 Slovakia 7 1.71 0.48 3.54 3.06 0.13 Spain 7 0.76 0.09 2.49 2.40 0.84 United States 7 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.02 Finland 7 0.51 0.10 2.11 2.01 0.72 France 7 1.11 0.25 2.49 2.24 0.77 Ghana 7 0.23 0.03 0.96 0.93 0.32 Greece 7 0.64 0.03 2.05 2.02 0.68 Hungary 7 0.68 0.02 2.24 2.22 0.81 Ireland 7 0.61 0.09 1.80 1.71 0.60 Israel 7 1.44 0.22 3.73 3.51 0.11 Italy 7 1.16 0.41 1.91 1.50 0.60 Japan 7 0.63 0.04 1.73 1.69 0.66 Mexico 7 0.71 0.19 1.99 1.80 0.66 Norway 7 0.70 0.21 1.24 1.03 0.37 New Zealand 7 0.30 0.03 1.12 1.09 0.37 Netherlands 7 1.18 0.70 2.62 1.92 0.65 Poland 7 1.62 0.09 5.22 5.13 1.77 Portugal 7 0.26 0.01 0.70 0.69 0.27 United Kingdom 7 0.28 0.04 1.04 1.00 0.34 Romania 7 1.04 0.03 1.60 1.57 0.52 Sweden 7 0.44 0.03 0.93 0.90 0.37 Switzerland 7 0.57 0.17 0.92 0.75 0.23 Czechia 7 0.88 0.08 2.85 2.77 0.92 Uruguay 7 0.48 0.01 0.80 0.79 0.27 India 7 1.00 0.02 3.09 3.07 1.10 Total 280 0.76 0.01 5.22 5.21 0.82 Source: Elabored by the author, based on Stability in 40 Democracies19.

Note: Standard deviation calculated using the Delta method. 95% confidence interval. Z coefficient in Models C and D with standard deviation adjusted using the Sidak method. ***p < 0.001; **p < 0.01; * p < 0.05.

		Cases	Mean	Minimum	Maximum	Standard Deviation
Plurality (h2)	No	245	0.82	0.01	5.22	0.83
Plurality (h2)	Yes	35	0.34	0.01	3.09	0.62
Electoral formula (h3)	Plurality	35	0.34	0.01	3.09	0.62
	Preferential	27	0.55	0.01	2.49	0.61
	Mixed	53	0.62	0.01	3.15	0.65
	Proportional	165	0.93	0.01	5.22	0.90
Sartori’s classification (h4)	Strong	35	0.34	0.01	3.09	0.62
	Moderate	116	0.66	0.01	4.96	0.74
	Feeble	129	0.96	0.01	5.22	0.89
Form of state	Unitary	137	0.73	0.01	5.22	0.80
Form of state	Federal or regional	143	0.79	0.01	4.96	0.85
System of government	Parliamentary	133	0.69	0.01	3.73	0.68
	Semi-presidential	63	0.93	0.01	5.22	0.98
	Presidential	84	0.75	0.01	4.96	0.90
All		280	0.76	0.01	5.22	0.82

Strong	Moderate	Feeble
Plurality	Mixed	Proportional
Canada (01) United States (01) Gana (01) India (01) United Kingdom (01)	Germany (2.0-3.0) Bolivia 02 (1.6) South Korea (1.2) Italy 02 (1.2) Japan (1.6) Mexico (1.6) New Zealand (2.4) Hungary 01 (1.9) Hungary 02 (1.8) Romania (1.2)	Argentina (10.7) Austria (20.3) Belgium (13.6) Bolivia 01 (14.4) Brazil (19) Bulgaria (7,7) Costa Rica (8,1) Denmark 01 (11,1) Denmark 02 (17.9) Slovakia (150) Finland (13.3) Israel (120) Italy 01 (26.2) Italy 03 (23.3) Norway (8.9) Netherlands (150) Poland (11,2) Portugal (17,6) Romania 01 (7.7) Romania 03 (7.3) Sweden (10.6) Switzerland (7.7) Czechia (14.2)
	Proportional
	Chile 02 (4.2) Colombia (4.6) El Salvador (06) Spain (6.8) Greece (05) Uruguay (5.2)
	Preferential
	Australia (01) Chile 01 (02) Ireland (3.8) France (01)

Model	A	B	C	D
Regression	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE
Dependent	SPV	SPV	SPV	SPV
Coefficient	Exp(b)	Exp(b)	Exp(b)	Exp(b)
Federalism	0.81 (0.11)	0.88 (0.14)	0.75^a (0.11)	0.86 (0.13)
Parliamentarianism	0.85 (0.13)	1.32 (0.27)	1.26 (0.22)	1.19 (0.23)
Semi-presidential.	1.09 (0.23)	1.82* (0.46)	1.79^* (0.49)	1.48 (0.38)
Parliament (Log)	0.98 (0.52)	0.44 (0.27)	0.56 (0.32)	0.54 (0.32)
Population (Log)	1.11 (0.11)	1.38* (0.17)	1.42** (0.17)	1.37* (0.18)
Diversity	1.51 (0.56)	2.22* (0.74)	2.01* (0.57)	2.09* (0.63)
Magnitude	1.04*** (0.00)
Plurality		0.22*** (0.06)
Mixed			2.52* (0.98)
Preferential			3.46*** (0.87)
Proportional			5.70*** (1.46)
Strong				0.18*** (0.04)
Moderate				0.66** (0.08)
Constant	0.06** (0.05)	0.01** (0.01)	0.00*** (0.00)	0.01** (0.01)
Wald Chi2	60.66***	47.34***	102.79***	74.60***
Pearson Chi2	283.39	285.20	274.32	286.16
Estimator	Semi Robust	Semi Robust	Semi Robust	Semi Robust
Cases	280	280	280	280
Groups	40	40	40	40
Periods	7	7	7	7

Country	Observations	Average	Minimum	Maximum	Amplitude	Standard Deviation
Germany	7	0.56	0.01	1.37	1.36	0.53
Argentina	7	0.88	0.01	1.59	1.58	0.62
Austria	7	0.62	0.12	1.08	0.96	0.39
Australia	7	0.19	0.01	0.43	0.42	0.13
Bolivia	7	0.83	0.15	3.15	3.00	1.09
Brazil	7	1.64	0.38	3.95	3.57	1.28
Bulgaria	7	1.20	0.43	2.06	1.63	0.61
Belgium	7	0.81	0.20	1.45	1.25	0.47
Canada	7	0.17	0.03	0.43	0.40	0.15
Chile	7	0.36	0.03	1.28	1.25	0.41
Colombia	7	1.43	0.08	4.96	4.88	1.70
South Korea	7	0.56	0.07	1.28	1.21	0.42
Costa Rica	7	1.15	0.13	2.84	2.71	0.93
Denmark	7	0.26	0.01	0.60	0.59	0.22
El Salvador	7	0.62	0.05	1.28	1.23	0.49
Slovakia	7	1.71	0.48	3.54	3.06	0.13
Spain	7	0.76	0.09	2.49	2.40	0.84
United States	7	0.02	0.01	0.06	0.05	0.02
Finland	7	0.51	0.10	2.11	2.01	0.72
France	7	1.11	0.25	2.49	2.24	0.77
Ghana	7	0.23	0.03	0.96	0.93	0.32
Greece	7	0.64	0.03	2.05	2.02	0.68
Hungary	7	0.68	0.02	2.24	2.22	0.81
Ireland	7	0.61	0.09	1.80	1.71	0.60
Israel	7	1.44	0.22	3.73	3.51	0.11
Italy	7	1.16	0.41	1.91	1.50	0.60
Japan	7	0.63	0.04	1.73	1.69	0.66
Mexico	7	0.71	0.19	1.99	1.80	0.66
Norway	7	0.70	0.21	1.24	1.03	0.37
New Zealand	7	0.30	0.03	1.12	1.09	0.37
Netherlands	7	1.18	0.70	2.62	1.92	0.65
Poland	7	1.62	0.09	5.22	5.13	1.77
Portugal	7	0.26	0.01	0.70	0.69	0.27
United Kingdom	7	0.28	0.04	1.04	1.00	0.34
Romania	7	1.04	0.03	1.60	1.57	0.52
Sweden	7	0.44	0.03	0.93	0.90	0.37
Switzerland	7	0.57	0.17	0.92	0.75	0.23
Czechia	7	0.88	0.08	2.85	2.77	0.92
Uruguay	7	0.48	0.01	0.80	0.79	0.27
India	7	1.00	0.02	3.09	3.07	1.10
Total	280	0.76	0.01	5.22	5.21	0.82

[1] Correspondence: ancolive@gmail.com

Brasil

Brasil

Political Institutions, Electoral Systems, and Party Stability in 40 Democracies Including Brazil^* * I thank the reviewers and the editorial and translation team of BPSR for their contributions.

Brasil

Brasil

Political Institutions, Electoral Systems, and Party Stability in 40 Democracies Including Brazil* * I thank the reviewers and the editorial and translation team of BPSR for their contributions.

Political Institutions, Electoral Systems, and Party Stability in 40 Democracies Including Brazil^* * I thank the reviewers and the editorial and translation team of BPSR for their contributions.