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National Intelligence Systems as Networks: Power Distribution and Organizational Risk in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa* * For replication, see bpsr.org.br/files/archives/dataset_cepik_moller. Throughout the years a host of research assistants have kept the intelligence studies alive at UFRGS. Asking for forgiveness in advance if we fail to mention someone, our deepest gratitude to Aline Hellmann, Christiano Ambros, Pedro Romero Marques, Giovanna Kuele, Mariana Chaise, Bruno Kern, Felipe Machado, Frederico Licks Bertol, Joana Oliveira de Oliveira, João Arthur Reis, Josiane Sarti, Laura de Castro Quaglia, Luciana Brandão, Luciana Ghiggi, Luisa Acauan Lorentz, Marcelo Mesquita Leal, Matheus Machado Hoscheidt, Rodrigo Pasqualini Milagre, and Silvia Sebben. Likewise, special thanks for much valued input to colleagues Alpha Mamadou Diallo, Antonio Diaz, Carlos Arturi, Carolina Sancho, Cris Matei, Douglas Porch, Eduardo Estevez, Gregory Treverton, Hermenegildo Avelino, Igor Castellano, John Nomikos, Julio Rodriguez, Keneth Dombroski, Kristian Gustavson, Lauren Hutton, Manuel Ugarte, Mark Phythian, Michael Herman, Michael Warner, Peter Gill, Priscila Brandão, Russell Swenson, Shlomo Shpiro, Steven Boraz, Stuart Farson, Thomas Bruneau, Thomas Friis, and Thorsten Wetzling. The Brazilian National Research Council (CNPQ) has supported our research on governmental intelligence for many years now, including this article. We also thank the anonymous referees and the editors of the Brazilian Political Science Review.

This article compares the intelligence systems of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Three questions drive the research: How are the national intelligence systems organized? How is power distributed among organizations in each country? What are the organizational risks? By employing Network Analysis to publicly-available data on intelligence agencies, collegiate bodies, and supervising organizations, authority relations and information flows were mapped. Regarding organizational configuration, similarities were found between India and Russia, as well as between China and South Africa. Brazil differs from the four countries. As for the power distribution, in Russia, Brazil, and India intelligence is subordinated to the government, and shows more centrality in the cases of China and South Africa. Finally, Russia runs the highest risk of having an intelligence system less able to adapt to strategic circumstances, at the same time being the most resilient among the five countries. Likewise, China has the highest risk of a single actor being able to retain information, acting as a gatekeeper. Network Analysis has proved to be a useful approach to promote a comparative research program in the Intelligence Studies field.

BRICS; intelligence; network analysis; power distribution


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