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Homicide mortality in Brazilian states and municipalities from 2005 to 2015: a socio-spatial analysis

Abstract

Background:

Violence in Brazil is a complex and multifaceted problem, affecting different regions and social groups unequally. Among the various types of violence, homicides represent one of the most serious and impactful forms, reflecting social, economic and political issues.

Objective:

To conduct a socio-spatial and temporal analysis of homicide mortality in Brazil, considering territorial distribution, means of aggression and victims’ profile, between 2005 and 2015. We hypothesize that there is a spatial spread of homicides in the country.

Method:

A retrospective, ecological study with data concerning the Brazilian population, and homicides from the Mortality Information System (2005-2015), whose average annual rates were standardized by municipality and state, and plotted on maps using the R software.

Results:

Standardized homicide rates by sex, age group and race/ethnicity are higher among men, young (15 to 29 years) and Black people (including Black and mixed/pardo). For both men and women, firearms were the main means of aggression, with more than 70% of deaths. Clusters of above-average municipalities are concentrated in the most populous, well-delimited regions that have rates much higher than expected, such as state capitals and their metropolitan areas, and along the Eastern coastal strip. Isolated municipalities appear also close to international borders (mainly with Paraguay) and the Amazonian agricultural frontier.

Conclusions:

The identification of predominant victim profiles and regions/municipalities most exposed to homicides enable to target specific strategies/public policies in these regions and population groups to prevent the problem.

Keywords:
homicide; development; territory; violence; Brazil

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