How do changes in mortality and life expectancy affect the elderly population projection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil?

Abstract

Background

Brazil experienced a significant change in life expectancy at birth in the 20th century. In this process, it is important to observe not only the decrease in mortality level and the increase in life expectancy, but also the change in mortality pattern, that is, how mortality occurred and which ages were most impacted. Recently, these changes in the mortality pattern at more advanced ages and their impact on population aging have been discussed more intensively. However, in Brazil, discussions about human longevity and mortality behavior in advanced ages are still incipient. Experts suggest that future studies and mortality projections incorporate new trends in decelerating mortality at advanced ages and explore cohort approaches in their trend formulations.

Objective

To study the effect of changes in mortality and life expectancy on predicting the elderly population size in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Method

Extended cohort-component study.

Results

Changes in the level and pattern of mortality have a greater effect on the population aged ≥80 compared with that on the population aged ≥60. In addition, considering the life expectancy gap between sexes is relevant to determine the future number of older people.

Conclusion

The extended cohort component method is an interesting methodological approach to assess the impact of mortality changes on the elderly population projection by using different stages of the epidemiological transition as a future scenario

Keywords:
population projection; elderly population; population aging; life expectancy; mortality