21st Century Climate Change Threatens on the Brown Bear

Acarer, Ahmet; Mert, Ahmet

doi:10.1590/01047760202430013305

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FOREST ECOLOGY • CERNE 30 • 2024 • https://doi.org/10.1590/01047760202430013305 copy

21st Century Climate Change Threatens on the Brown Bear

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

Background:

Today, the biggest threat to mammalian predators with wide distribution areas is habitats fragmentation or changing climate conditions. We aimed to reveal the habitat suitability modeling and mapping of the Brown bear, which is an important large mammal in Turkey’s borders, under change climate. The habitat suitability modelling was determined using the present (2010) and future (2040-2070-2100) chelsa climate scenarios (IPSL-CM6A-LR SSP126-SSP370-SSP585) Maxent method with the present data obtained by examining all studies on Brown bear. Then, the mapping result values for the different years and scenarios were classified as 0.5 unsuitable habitats, 0.51-0.8 suitable habitats and 0.81-1.0 most suitable habitats.

Results:

We determined that the variables contributing to the habitat suitability model of Brown bear are annual precipitation amount, the average annual air temperature, the precipitation amount of the wettest month, the ruggedness and elevation. According to the mapping results for different years and scenarios; Brown bear have suitable habitat a minimum of 14.87% of the study area in today, 12.56% in 2040 year, 10.93% in 2070 year and 8.24% in 2100 year. According to the SSP585 climate scenario of 2100 year, the habitat suitability of the Brown bear decreases by approximately 45%. Also, the climate envelope model created with MaxEnt revealed, the change climate in the 2100 year endangered the Brown bear.

Conclusion:

Therefore, these results will be a source of information for the sustainability of the extinction of the Brown bear, for the pre-protection of existing and potential habitats and for reducing the impact of change climate conditions.

Keywords:
Brown bear; Chelsa climate scenarios; Maximum Entropy; Habitat suitability modelling and mapping; Sustainability.

HIGHLIGHTS

The predatory and endangered bear species, it is an indicator species for biodiversity. The brown bear will be greatly affected by climate change. According to the numerical and model-based mapping prepared for the sustainability of the target species, the preferred habitats of the species are significantly decreasing in the future. Species distribution models are important in the protection and management plans to be made for the Brown bear.

Name	Longname	Unit
Bio1	Mean diurnal air temperature range	°C
Bio2	Mean annual air temperature	°C
Bio3	İsothermality	°C
Bio4	Temperature seasonality	°C
Bio5	Mean daily maximum air temperature of the warmest month	°C
Bio6	Mean daily minimum air temperature of the coldest month	°C
Bio7	Annual range of air temperature	°C
Bio8	Mean daily mean air temperatures of the wettest quarter	°C
Bio9	Mean daily mean air temperatures of the driest quarter	°C
Bio10	Mean daily mean air temperatures of the warmest quarter	°C
Bio11	Mean daily mean air temperatures of the coldest quarter	°C
Bio12	Annual precipitation amount	Kg m^-2 year^-1
Bio13	Precipitation amount of the wettest month	Kg m^-2 month^-1
Bio14	Precipitation amount of the driest month	Kg m^-2 month^-1
Bio15	Precipitation seasonality	Kg m^-2
Bio16	Mean monthly precipitation amount of the wettest quarter	Kg m^-2 month^-1
Bio17	Mean monthly precipitation amount of the driest quarter	Kg m^-2 month^-1
Bio18	Mean monthly precipitation amount of the warmest quarter	Kg m^-2 month^-1
Bio19	Mean monthly precipitation amount of the coldest quarter	Kg m^-2 month^-1

Component	Initial Eigenvalues			Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings
Component	Total	% of Variance	Cumulative %	Total	% of Variance	Cumulative %
1	9.152	48.168	48.168	9.152	48.168	48.168
2	4.056	21.346	69.514	4.056	21.346	69.514
3	3.574	18.812	88.326	3.574	18.812	88.326
4	1.023	5.386	93.711	1.023	10.386	93.711
5	0.581	3.060	96.772
6	0.388	2.042	98.814
7	0.169	0.892	99.706
8	0.022	0.115	99.821
9	0.012	0.064	99.884
10	0.009	0.047	99.932
11	0.005	0.028	99.960
12	0.004	0.019	99.978
13	0.002	0.008	99.986
14	0.001	0.006	99.993
15	0.001	0.003	99.996
16	0.001	0.003	99.999
17	0.000	0.001	100.000
18	0.000	0.000	100.000
19	0.000	0.000	100.000

variable	Component
variable	1	2	3	4
bio1	0.866	0.373	0.286	-0.063
bio10	0.903	0.200	0.282	-0.096
bio11	0.801	0.500	0.316	-0.031
bio12	-0.952	0.138	0.541	0.095
bio13	-0.455	-0.301	0.935	-0.106
bio14	-0.841	0.488	0.070	0.122
bio15	0.472	-0.663	0.491	-0.246
bio16	-0.468	-0.241	0.840	-0.091
bio17	-0.851	0.465	0.071	0.136
bio18	-0.846	0.476	-0.003	0.142
bio19	-0.245	-0.225	0.819	0.039
bio2	0.694	-0.893	-0.053	0.486
bio3	0.721	0.217	0.129	0.568
bio4	-0.213	-0.878	-0.236	-0.127
bio5	0.811	-0.010	0.229	-0.005
bio6	0.755	0.533	0.359	-0.090
bio7	0.257	-0.472	-0.230	0.141
bio8	0.525	0.401	-0.358	-0.482
bio9	0.751	0.047	0.286	0.173

Habitat suitability rate	Current	Future SSP (2040)			Future SSP (2070)			Future SSP (2100)
Habitat suitability rate	Current	126	370	585	126	370	585	126	370	585
0.0-0.50	85.13%	86.76%	87.08%	87.44%	88.21%	88.67%	89.07%	90.62%	91.15%	91.76%
0.51-0.80	11.45%	9.98%	9.87%	9.75%	8.96%	8.71%	8.56%	7.53%	7.21%	6.87%
0.81-1.00	3.42%	3.26%	3.05%	2.81%	2.83%	2.62%	2.37%	1.85%	1.64%	1.37%
Total suitable habitat	14.87%	13.24%	12.92%	12.56%	11.79%	11.33%	10.93%	9.38%	8.85%	8.24%

UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras Universidade Federal de Lavras - Departamento de Ciências Florestais - Cx. P. 3037, 37200-000 Lavras - MG Brasil, Tel.: (55 35) 3829-1706, Fax: (55 35) 3829-1411 - Lavras - MG - Brazil
E-mail: cerne@dcf.ufla.br

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[1] ^✤Corresponding author: aacarer32@gmail.com