Methodology for determining classes of forest fire risk using the modified Monte Alegre Formula

Metodologia para determinação das classes de risco de incêndio florestal usando a Fórmula de Monte Alegre modificada

Abstract

The objective of this study was to calculate the Modified Monte Alegre Formula (FMA⁺) and adjust the wildfire risk classes of areas of forests planted in the northern-central coast of the state of Espírito Santo state and the southern coast of Bahia state. The methodology used included six stages: risk calculation; spreadsheet development according to the occurrence, or not, of forest fires; spreadsheet development according to the wildfire season in the study region; risk class definition; result analysis of the determined classes; best fit selection. It was observed that the class definition methodology for the FMA⁺ system obtained excellent results. It increased by 19.3, 21.53, and 31.3% for the percentage of success for subzones 1, 2, and 3, respectively, which implies this an important study for the successful implementation of FMA⁺ in other areas.

Keywords:
FMA⁺; Wildfire; Statistics