Potential distribution of Guadua bamboo in Mexico, based on three arrays of environmental variables

Distribuição potencial do bambu Guadua no México, com base em três conjuntos de variáveis ambientais

ABSTRACT

The environmental conditions of Mexico allow the presence of several species of bamboo, where commercial uses have diversified due to their rapid growth and characteristics. The Mexican Guaduas are specimens with exemplary structural characteristics, however, there is no cartographic information in Mexico that allows locating and sizing the areas where bamboo species are located or can be located, which restricts decision making for commercial forest plantations. Therefore, it is intended to determine the probability of occurrence of the 7 species of this genus of bamboo, based on the maximum entropy approach and three arrangements of 21 environmental variables, for which 478 presence records were used. All generated models defined a good fit with the training data, with an AUC value greater than 0.90. It was found that the niche distribution of Guadua mexicana species is mainly influenced by altitude (ELEV), so they are found in areas close to coastal regions. Likewise, in defining the distribution of this genus, annual precipitation (BIO12), evapotranspiration (ETP) and average annual temperature (BIO1) stood out. This was independent of the three arrangements of environmental variables that were tested.

Keywords
Maximum entropy; Omission/commission curves; Permutation importance