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MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATE THE FINE AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT

ABSTRACT

This article aims to describe, through a literature review, the main existing mathematical models to estimate the fine dead fuel moisture content (1-hr time lag class) based on meteorological parameters. The determination of these values is extremely important for forest fire prevention and suppression efforts, and for conducting prescribed burns, since they account for the ignition probability and fire behavior. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), is the most widely used model in the world. However, since some experimental works report limitations and imprecision for FFMC and for all the others models examined in this paper, it is essential to test their precision before using them in an operational way. In Brazil, due to the lack of studies in this area, it is recommended to validate or build new models in order to improve prevention programs and assist in the development of an efficient nationwide forest fire risk model.

Keywords:
forest fire; fire risk; vapor exchange

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