Construction of prognostic nomogram based on the SEER database for esophageal cancer patients

ABSTRACT

Currently, the incidence of esophageal cancer continues to rise around the world. Because of its good early prognosis, it is of great significance to establish an effective model for predicting the survival of EC patients. The purpose of this study was to predict survival after diagnosis in Esophageal Cancer (EC) patients by constructing a valid clinical nomogram. In this study, 5037 EC patient samples diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 were screened by accessing the SEER database, and 8 independent prognostic factors were screened by various methods, and Cox multivariate regression was included to construct a prognostic model and nomogram for esophageal cancer. to estimate esophageal cancer recurrence and overall survival. Calibration of the nomogram predicted probabilities of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year survival probability, which were closely related to actual survival. In conclusion, this study validated that the column-line graphical model can be considered an individualized quantitative tool for predicting the prognosis of patients with EC in order to assist clinicians in making therapeutic decisions.

Keywords:
Esophageal cancer; Prognostic nomogram; Overall survival (OS)

HIGHLIGHTS

The nomogram can help clinicians make treatment recommendations based on patient survival.

This nomogram shows superior survival prediction ability.

This nomogram provides guidance for the prognosis assessment of EC patients in terms of individualized tumor-specific survival prediction.

Calibration and DCA curves were used to verify the consistency of the predicted survival rate with the actual results.