Land use patterns and the potential misuse of our planet's natural resources have recently called the attention of an increasing worldwide number of studies in the area of scenario simulation. In this context, the present study aims at simulating the native forest scenario of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, for the 2020, by locating and quantifying in a map the evolution of forest in this state. Land use patterns were classified based on satellite images from the years 1988, 1998 and 2007. The forest evolution map was cross-checked with several thematic maps of physical and human aspects and defined the Markov transition matrix and the evidence weights, both of which are requirements for the calibration of the stochastic model. The simulation of Rio Grande do Sul's forest landscape for the year 2020 showed an increase of the native forest in almost all regions of the state, covering an area of more than 5,113km².
scenario simulation; GIS; remote sensing
