This study aims to evaluate accuracy of projections in diametric Araucaria Forest, using models of the transition matrix and movement ratio, applied in three temporal amplitude (2, 3 and 4 years), and two employees amplitudes diameter classes (5 and 10cm). The information used in the study are from permanent plots established in the National Forest of São Francisco de Paula - RS. The efficiency of the projections was verified based on observed values, using Kolmogorov Smirnov test and analysis of variance. Although they have been influenced by the Markovian properties, projections carried out showed efficiency to describe the future structure of the forest, but the model the movement ratio projections generated more efficient compared to those described by the transition matrix. The time span of 4 years applied the range of 5cm diameter class had the most accurate results of the study overestimated by 1.7% the total number of individuals in the forest.
mixed ombrophylous forest; movement ratio method; prognosis; transition matrix
