Political events upon the Romania rural population using VAR model

A influência de eventos políticos sobre a população rural usando o modelo VAR: Eventos da Romênia

ABSTRACT:

Maintaining a rural-urban balance is absolutely necessary in the context of the challenges related to food security and environmental protection as well as the perspectives of urban agglomeration. This paper highlighted the impact of the main events from the last 30 years on the rural population. This study used the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to investigate the estimates and analyse the dynamic impact of innovations on the system of variables. Key issues that influenced certain periods in the analyzed interval were highlighted, which clearly show the impact on the analyzed variables using variance decomposition. The cost of living in rural areas is increasing, so more and more inhabitants give up growing certain crops or raising certain animals, thus having to search for food to survive, leading to additional wage income to cover these costs.

Key words:
demography; agriculture; rural areas; VAR model