Overcrowding of emergency services in the city of Bogotá: a systemic understanding of the problem

Abstract

Emergency overcrowding is often associated with issues of inefficiency in care. However, this work focuses on another relevant aspect, namely care of non-urgent patients. In order to understand the dynamics associated with this aspect, a conceptual model of systems dynamics is constructed, based on the characterization of users and their decision criteria. A descriptive study was conducted based on a structured survey; additionally, binomial logistic regression and analysis of variance were used to estimate probability of emergency department visits and to define differences among users. The following criteria are relevant: service effectiveness, availability of medications and exams, and proximity to the emergency center. The waiting time is more significant for pediatric patients and the availability of medications and exams is also more prevalent for middle-income users; the latter attributes less importance to cost compared to low income. The model shows that resources create a virtuous or a vicious cycle of users waiting for care in both emergency and priority care (PC) centers. The proposal suggested is for segregation for pediatric users in PC centers and the promotion of user confidence in alternative options to emergency centers.

Key words: Overcrowding; Emergency services; Social behavior; Understanding