Determinants of physical distancing during the covid-19 epidemic in Brazil: effects from mandatory rules, numbers of cases and duration of rules

Moraes, Rodrigo Fracalossi de

doi:10.1590/1413-81232020259.21892020

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ARTICLE • Ciênc. saúde coletiva 25 (9) • Sept 2020 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1413-81232020259.21892020 copy

Determinants of physical distancing during the covid-19 epidemic in Brazil: effects from mandatory rules, numbers of cases and duration of rules

Determinantes do distanciamento físico durante a epidemia de covid-19 no Brasil: efeitos de medidas mandatórias, números de casos e duração das normas restritivas

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Abstract

During the covid-19 pandemic, physical distancing is being promoted to reduce the disease transmission and pressure on health systems. Yet, what determines physical distancing? Through a panel data analysis, this article identifies some of its determinants. Using a specifically built index that measures the strictness of physical distancing rules in the 27 Brazilian states, this paper isolates the effect of mandatory physical distancing rules from other potential determinants of physical distancing. The article concludes that physical distancing is influenced by at least three variables: the strictness of mandatory physical distancing rules, the number of confirmed cases of covid-19, and the duration of rules. Evidence also indicates that the effect of physical distancing measures is relatively stronger than that of the number of cases –physical distancing is determined proportionally more by mandatory policies than people’s awareness about the severity of the epidemic. These results have at least two policy implications. First, governments should adopt mandatory measures in order to increase physical distancing – rather than expect people to adopt them on their own. Second, the timing of adopting them is important, since people are unlikely to comply with them for long periods of time.

Key words
Covid-19; Brazil; NPIs; Physical distancing

# of the variable	Description of the variable	Values
1	Mass gatherings and cultural, sport or religious activities	2 = Full suspension 1 = Partial suspension or restriction 0 = No suspension or restriction
2	Bars, pubs, restaurants and similar places
3	Non-essential shops
4	Non-essential industries
5	Classes
6	Public transportation

Social distancing index (0-100%)	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Physical distancing rules index (PDI)	0.799^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.055)	0.788^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.054)	0.799^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.055)	0.799^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.055)	0.799^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.055)	0.799^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.055)
Number of days	-0.194^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.007)	-0.195^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.006)	-0.194^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.007)	-0.194^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.007)	-0.194^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.007)	-0.194^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.007)
Log cases	0.926^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.075)	0.945^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.074)	0.926^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.075)	0.926^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.075)	0.926^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.075)	0.926^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.075)
Log GDP per capita			1.008^ p< 0.01, *< 0.05. (0.298)
ICU beds				0.048^ p< 0.01, *< 0.05. (0.014)
Ideology					0.048 (0.445)
Log population density						0.287^ p< 0.01, *< 0.05. (0.085)
Constant	49.287^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.533)	49.166^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.600)	39.118^* ***** p< 0.001, (3.239)	48.362^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.682)	49.287^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.533)	49.370^* ***** p< 0.001, (0.524)
State dummies	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
# of observations	1.725	1.725	1.725	1.725	1.725	1.725
R ²	0.772	0.544	0.772	0.772	0.772	0.772

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[TFN1] - Information used to code the values of these variables come from open sources, especially legal documents from state governments, complemented by news from local media. Details are in the Chart 1 and in Moraes¹²12 Moraes RF. Medidas legais de incentivo ao distanciamento social: comparação das políticas de governos estaduais e prefeituras das capitais no Brasil. Nota Téc - Ipea. 2020; 16. [cited 2020 Jun 9]. Available from: https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/nota_tecnica/200415_dinte_n_16.pdf.
https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/st... ^,¹³13 Moraes RF. Covid-19 e medidas legais de distanciamento social: tipologia de políticas estaduais e análise do período de 13 a 26 de abril de 2020. Nota Téc - Ipea. 2020; 18. [cited 2020 Jun 9]. Available from: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/nota_tecnica/200429_nt18_covid-19.pdf.
http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/sto... . The original dataset is in Moraes¹⁴14 Moraes RF. Índice de medidas legais de distanciamento social. Brasília: Ipea; 2020..